Texas Winter 2013-2014

[SouthernMet]

ummm... : http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displ ... ll&adtfn=1

does this get anyone's attention ?

edit : hrrr shows a large precip field with band that spits out a widespread 6+ inches PER HOUR http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displ ... ll&adtfn=1

just one model, but that trend continues & that is just crazy if verifies.

[SouthernMet]

19z hrrr is either nuts or on to something..

only 15 hrs out it shows already over a foot of snow for a large area of west texas with the precip shield further south than expected.

that looks like an impressive band it shows developing & the Lubbock nws touched on that earlier, whoever gets under that defomation band, is going to get buried.

[wxman57]

It still looks like mostly freezing rain for the D-FW area tomorrow. The airmass just isn't that cold. The 18Z GFS (and 12Z) has a pretty significant warm nose between 5000-10,000 ft tomorrow. More of a warm nose than we had over Houston last Tuesday. And check out the dew points in Oklahoma in the cold air - mid to upper 20s. Last week they were below zero.

[gpsnowman]

When are the temps supposed to start dropping? Hovering around 50 here in snow starved Grand Prairie. I must say I am getting a little excited.

[iorange55]

It still looks like mostly freezing rain for the D-FW area tomorrow. The airmass just isn't that cold. The 18Z GFS (and 12Z) has a pretty significant warm nose between 5000-10,000 ft tomorrow. More of a warm nose than we had over Houston last Tuesday.

The NWS seems to think the warm nose will erode late in the morning, which would allow the transition from rain/freezing rain to sleet or snow.

Do you not see the warm nose eroding as fast as they do?

[wxman57]

It still looks like mostly freezing rain for the D-FW area tomorrow. The airmass just isn't that cold. The 18Z GFS (and 12Z) has a pretty significant warm nose between 5000-10,000 ft tomorrow. More of a warm nose than we had over Houston last Tuesday.

The NWS seems to think the warm nose will erode late in the morning, which would allow the transition from rain/freezing rain to sleet or snow.

Do you not see the warm nose eroding as fast as they do?

Yes, it erodes, but it's still there when the precip stops. Freezing rain could change to sleet, and you might be able to get some tiny poorly-formed snowflakes as the precip ends, just as we did in Houston.

[iorange55]

Yes, it erodes, but it's still there when the precip stops. Freezing rain could change to sleet, and you might be able to get some tiny poorly-formed snowflakes as the precip ends, just as we did in Houston.

As always, thank you for taking the time to answer. I hope you are wrong . Sadly, you are probably right.

[SouthernMet]

When are the temps supposed to start dropping? Hovering around 50 here in snow starved Grand Prairie. I must say I am getting a little excited.

it probably won't make it to at or below freezing until 8am tomorrow morning.

[ravyrn]

So way back in November or early December, a lot of people were giving Cavanaugh a lot of nice comments, one calling him the Tolkien of AFDs. I msg'd him on Facebook and copy/pasted some of the kudos you guys sent. He finally saw the message today and sent this

Thank you sir, I really appreciate that I just randomly clicked on this "other" tab to see what it was and why there was a little number "2" next to it. I had no idea these were actually messages, I always figured it was some sort of game notification or something. At any rate, sorry I didn't respond to you in a more timely manner, apparently I fail at Facebook . Thanks again, take care!

He appreciates your compliments.

[SouthernMet]

It still looks like mostly freezing rain for the D-FW area tomorrow. The airmass just isn't that cold. The 18Z GFS (and 12Z) has a pretty significant warm nose between 5000-10,000 ft tomorrow. More of a warm nose than we had over Houston last Tuesday. And check out the dew points in Oklahoma in the cold air - mid to upper 20s. Last week they were below zero.

freezing rain is worse.
surface temps are going to play a key role in terms of how much problems this is going to cause. Everyone agrees westplexers look like they will be at or below freezing from the onset of the event. It's irving/dallas area and se that's going to be marginal - temp wise.

[SouthernMet]

20z hrrr even more impressive 15 hours out, the band drops 18"+ in west texas.

imo that's not going to happen but the point is I haven't seen the hrrr completely bomb out a storm like this in a very long time & either way whoever gets under that impressive band is going to be the "winner".

15hr out accumulated snowfall : http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displ ... ll&adtfn=1

per hour snowfall rates (red river lookout) : http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displ ... ll&adtfn=1

[gpsnowman]

My goodness. How reliable is this model the day before an event? Someone could get crushed!!

[SouthernMet]

:uarrow: My goodness. How reliable is this model the day before an event? Someone could get crushed!!

usually pretty accurate & good at sniffing out short term trends.
well just have to see

[dhweather]

I have this sinking feeling that those of us on the east side of the metroplex will be lucky to get a cold rain.

[orangeblood]

It still looks like mostly freezing rain for the D-FW area tomorrow. The airmass just isn't that cold. The 18Z GFS (and 12Z) has a pretty significant warm nose between 5000-10,000 ft tomorrow. More of a warm nose than we had over Houston last Tuesday. And check out the dew points in Oklahoma in the cold air - mid to upper 20s. Last week they were below zero.

It's going to be a very close call....that warm nose is only 3-4 deg C at onset but drops as precip increases. With the dendritic growth zone approaching 100 mb, I would think as heavy snow falls through the warm layer it would cool it enough to become majority sleet. Would expect this to probably transition quickly over to a sleet storm through the DFW metroplex and very heavy snow northwest of Fort Worth. Someone is going to get pounded with heavy snow wherever that enhanced instability resides


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[somethingfunny]

I have this sinking feeling that those of us on the east side of the metroplex will be lucky to get a cold rain.

I have the same suspicion. I think there will be a heavy band to the northwest of the city, closer to Wichita Falls, and the tail end of it might clip us but for the most part I'm just expecting a drizzly day.

[TheProfessor]

My temperature is already down to 44 degrees and is still dropping.
Edit: my point forecast now shows a 90% chance of wintery mix. I hope all of Denton county can get under one of those heavy bands mentioned above. (If they occur)

[orangeblood]

My temperature is already down to 44 degrees and is still dropping.
Edit: my point forecast now shows a 90% chance of wintery mix. I hope all of Denton county can get under one of those heavy bands mentioned above. (If they occur)

Denton County will probably get it all...freezing rain, sleet and then snow on the back side of the ULL trough. As far as North Texas is concerned, At this time Wichita Falls over to Gainesville appears to be the heaviest axis of snow


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[SouthernMet]

this is getting ridiculous.. if the 21z hrrr verifies, it will catch alot of people off guard.

[TheProfessor]

My temperature is already down to 44 degrees and is still dropping.
Edit: my point forecast now shows a 90% chance of wintery mix. I hope all of Denton county can get under one of those heavy bands mentioned above. (If they occur)

Denton County will probably get it all...freezing rain, sleet and then snow on the back side of the ULL trough. As far as North Texas is concerned, At this time Wichita Falls over to Gainesville appears to be the heaviest axis of snow


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

I know, but if that axis line could push just another 30 miles to the southeast than that would be perfect.