Texas Winter 2013-2014

[stephen23]

34 degrees in saginaw tx

[SouthernMet]

nws ft worth adds 8 counties to the wwa area
hrrr comes back to reality, but rap/hrrr have warmed fcst sfc temps for dfw slightly, going to be close. nws says they may be wrong because temps are already colder

edit : the freezing line has moved pretty steadily so far.

[Ralph's Weather]

35 and misting here in Lindale. Wundermap shows temps ranging from 33 to 36 between me and Dallas where it is actually a but warmer it looks like. Could get very interesting today.

[orangeblood]

Another fascinating forecast discussion from Cavanaugh this morning, might be his best work yet! Even if this storm isn't affecting you directly, go read it anyways - gives you an even better perspective on just how complex some of these winter storms can be and also can educate yourself on what to look for when following storms like this.

To summarize: a ton of instability aloft with this system that could really affect this forecast only hours from the onset. So stay tuned throughout the day

[stephen23]

It is now 32 in saginaw tx. 35n and 820

[Tejas89]

That's a great read from FW this morning. Still looks like a bridges /overpass event for most of DFW due to temps which will make for fun traffic around the Super Bowl. This is going with the colder model (NAM). Could easily just be an all cold rain for DFW today before the dry slot.

Last part of discussion mentioned models are backing off a bit late week.

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[Texas Snowman]

We'll see. But remember, these are the same models that didn't have this storm amounting to much of anything just a few days ago. Now there are winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories up in North Texas.

[Ralph's Weather]

It seems that we may still be underestimating this storm, there is heavy snow out west and temps are only a couple degrees above freezing and still dropping in DFW and even in East Texas. We just have to hope that the upper levels are cooling like it is at the surface or we could see a fairly major icing event even out my way. This is a fun and challenging forecast where the best course of action seems to be to look at current observations at your location and points upstream.

[Kelarie]

From Shreveport NWS

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
610 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

ARZ059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-021415-
LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-COLUMBIA-UNION AR-
CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-UNION LA-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-
WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-
NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHDOWN...HOPE...PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...
LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...
MINDEN...HOMER...RUSTON...FARMERVILLE...MANSFIELD...COUSHATTA...
BIENVILLE...JONESBORO...MONROE...MANY...NATCHITOCHES...
WINNFIELD...COLFAX...COLUMBIA...JENA...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...
PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...GILMER...
JEFFERSON...TYLER...LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...RUSK...HENDERSON...
CARTHAGE...NACOGDOCHES...CENTER...LUFKIN...SAN AUGUSTINE...
HEMPHILL
610 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

.NOW...
...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FOUR STATE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
DURING THE MORNING AND THE RAIN WILL TURN TO A WINTERY MIX. THESE
SHOWERS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME OF THE
MODERATE SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR A
MILE OR TWO. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
A TENTH OF AN INCH...POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BECOME SLICK AND
HAZERDOUS.

[SouthernMet]

6am observations:
Sherman/Denision 32/mix precip
Bowie 32/mix precip
Mineral Wells 32/mix precip
Graham 31/mix precip

Decatur at 32.
Denton, Alliance & Bridegport (westplex) all officially at 33 but other stations even lower than that.
McKinney & Mesquite also officially down to 33 (eastplex)
Fwiw - fcst Pete Delkus had dfw above freezing till 5pm

hmm most likely some thunder in these cells from Granbury-Weatherford-Gainesville line : http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/radar/KFWS

[SouthernMet]

for those saying temps are "warmer"..

nws fort worth via twitter "Watching surface temps, temps continue to fall faster than models show: Bumping up timing of onset of wintry precip for DFW airports." (@NWSFortWorth)

[gboudx]

It's gonna be a fun day to smoke a pork butt. I've got it on the smoker and it's raining. Temp just dropped from 34 to 33. I may have some challenges keeping my temps consistent.

Very good read from DFW and shows how difficult this is.

[cycloneye]

Are you prepared for six more weeks of winter? Phil saw his shadow but read the red part.

PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. (AP) -- The handlers for groundhog Punxsutawney Phil say he's forecasting six more weeks of what already has felt like a brutally long and cold winter.

Pennsylvania's famed groundhog emerged from his lair in front of thousands of fans around daybreak Sunday.

Legend has it that if the furry rodent sees his shadow on Feb. 2, winter will last another month-and-a-half. If he doesn't see it, spring will come early.

In reality, Phil's prediction is decided ahead of time by a group called the Inner Circle, whose members don top hats and tuxedos for the annual Groundhog Day ceremony on Gobbler's Knob, the tiny hill in the town for which he's named about 65 miles northeast of Pittsburgh.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/ ... TE=DEFAULT

[Ralph's Weather]

All we will need here is for the dew point to keep falling as the temps around here are falling as fast as the soupy air will allow. It appears that along with the precip in the DFW area the dew points are also lower so I feel confident that that little bit drier air will allow us to fall the last couple degrees we need. I feel like I will be running between the kitchen prepping for tonight and the computer all day tracking this system. Gotta love winter weather tracking.

[SouthernMet]

7am observations.. Bowie + Graham have dropped off to 30 under the precip shield.
Denton, Bridgeport & Mineral Wells at 32 with mixed precip & Decatur at 31.

[Tammie]

31 degrees and light freezing rain in Denton (I-35 split).

[TheProfessor]

weather bug says it is 31 here, and NWS says it is 33, we'll probably drop to freezing when the precip starts.

[SouthernMet]

Wow road conditions are deteriorating very fast.. : http://www.drivetexas.org/mobile/

[TheProfessor]

The storms out near Abilene have rainfall rates of .25 inches an hour. That may not seem like a lot but if they arrive with the warm nose gone that means 2.5 inches of snow an hour.

[srainhoutx]

A very complex and challenging weather week ahead with the first of a series of 4 winter weather events underway across our Region this morning across the Panhandle/N Texas and Oklahoma. Convective storms across W Texas moving NE should bring a chance of thunder snow/thunder sleet into the Wichita Falls area and slowly spread SE towards Ft Worth and the DFW area later this afternoon. As the day progresses, freezing rain and sleet may spread even further SE of the Metroplex as the models are not handling the current trends well at all regarding surface temps as well as the upper air profiles. This Winter Storm should slowly come to an end overnight with drier conditions early tomorrow. The cold front is crossing Metro Houston at this hour and should be near or just off the Coast by this afternoon.

Winter storm number 2 Is arriving along the California Coast this morning and is expexted to trek E across Northern Mexico tonight into tomorrow. This storm system is stronger and over running should start in earnest Monday night into Tuesday as a Coastal wave develops near Corpus Christi. There is a chance that freezing precip may develop across portions of the Hill Country before the precip comes to an end. In the wake of this potent Winter Storm that may drop 4-6 inches of snow across Oklahoma and some possible higher amounts near 8 to 10 inches, much colder air will plunge S into Texas on Wednesday.

A very progressive active pattern continues on Thursday as a short wave/upper air disturbance with its origin of an Arctic nature drops S into the Northern Mexico area S of Arizona/New Mexico. Along Coastal Southern Texas a Coastal Low is being suggested which increases over running precip Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. There is still a great deal of uncertainty with the temperature profiles as well as upper air analysis at this extended range. Temperatures are expected to be in the single digits to low teens across Oklahoma Thursday. The main upper storm system should arrive on Friday across New Mexico and West Texas before finally exiting our Region next Saturday as the main trough/upper air features exit E. A word of caution. This is a very complicated and complex weather pattern and all interests should continue to monitor and expect day to day changes as events and additional data become available. Stay Tuned! This looks to be a wild weather week across our Region.