Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman57]

So you feel confident that the Tomball area will not have to deal with any freezing precipitation in the Thursday-Saturday time period?

I don't think we'll have any significant problems in Houston later this week. Less of an event than last Tuesday and much less than the Friday before.

[wxman57]

Did you catch this story about a kid spreading models?

http://www.theindychannel.com/weather/3 ... m-debunked

http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/7105/f668.jpg

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So that is how it started with Wxman57. No wonder....

I never wore a raindrop outfit to school - I always dressed as a hurricane.

[TheProfessor]

DGEX has the late week storm arriving earlier than the GFS, which might be why its predicting more of a snow event for DFW instead of an ice event. Also both have another system come through later. The DGEX has it being a snow and ice event while the GFS has it starting as rain and then turning into a snow and ice event.

[somethingfunny]

The disturbance that we have been following since it emerged off the coast of Russia and into the Bering Sea is now making its way to north Texas and will arrive tonight into tomorrow morning bringing a 90% coverage of rain. I am a little concerned about the snowpack off to our northwest where temperatures have struggled to get much above freezing today, and therefore a wintry mix within 50 miles of Wichita Falls ( and in areas a little closer to DFW where a significant snow/sleet pack still exists ) will be possible tonight, but it will be all rain here in the Metroplex.

The rain will be light to moderate with amounts less than 0.50" with the best of the rain falling east of I-35E. Temps will top out in the 50s on Tuesday.

And then it's back to winter with highs mostly in the 30s through the weekend, and we will struggle to get above freezing on Thursday afternoon with a chance of flurries. Better chance for wind-blown light snow will arrive on Saturday, but neither system appears to be very impressive, but at least the snow will be in the air even for folks in the Metroplex to see

[Meteorcane]

For what it is worth the 18z NAM shows some light possible winter precip. for North (and even some of central Texas) on Thursday, mainly FZRA, but some snow for the areas in northeast Texas. The precip is light and the forcing weak though, so it might not amount to much.

[Meteorcane]

I think the juxtaposition of these two images demonstrates the snowpack affect which is often referred to here (granted there are many other factors relating to temperature)

[weatherdude1108]

http://www.theindychannel.com/weather/3 ... m-debunked[/quote]

So that is how it started with Wxman57. No wonder....[/quote]

I never wore a raindrop outfit to school - I always dressed as a hurricane.[/quote]


You all crack me up! I love this forum

[weatherdude1108]

"Inclement Weather Day" Number 3? We'll see. Here's hoping!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
324 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL
BEGIN A PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINGING LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
EXPECT THAT SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROZEN. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MORNINGS WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. MODELS ARE FORECASTING LOW PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME AND WE ANTICIPATE MINOR IMPACTS. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL RAIN WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

[Tcu101]

All these strong storm system and no moisture to work with



NWS Fort Worth office - "TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS STUCK IN THE 30S AND 40S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
STRONG SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL US ON SATURDAY SENDING ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...GIVEN THE LACK OF MORE APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE...WILL KEEP POPS AND 20-30 PERCENT AND MENTION A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
THERE IS INDEED PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...IT WILL
LIKELY BE SNOW...BUT THERE EXISTS A LITTLE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
NAIL DOWN PRECIP TYPES/TEMPS AT THIS TIME FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND."

[gpsnowman]

The 4 o'clock news (CBS 11) still showing two pretty good chances for winter fun this week. Hopefully models will continue to bring in more moisture because the cold looks to be in place for a few days starting Wednesday.

[Portastorm]

Here we go again ... WPC's Winter Desk showing increasing chances for light freezing rain/sleet mix into South Central Texas later this week:



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[Portastorm]

So, you think the models have a good grip on our temperatures? Think again ... huge temp bust forecast here in Austin today. We hit 46 degrees at Camp Mabry (KATT) when the forecasted high was 52. A six-degree bust is rather significant.

Keep that in mind for later this week.

[wxman22]

Next Sundays cold core low looks interesting we just need it to tap into more moisture then we'll be in business.

[Tammie]

So, you think the models have a good grip on our temperatures? Think again ... huge temp bust forecast here in Austin today. We hit 46 degrees at Camp Mabry (KATT) when the forecasted high was 52. A six-degree bust is rather significant.

Keep that in mind for later this week.

We were supposed to hit 48. High so far at my house has been 37. The trend continues!

[TheProfessor]

Here we go again ... WPC's Winter Desk showing increasing chances for light freezing rain/sleet mix into South Central Texas later this week:



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That's to small, we need it to be stretched another 150 miles in each direction.

[Portastorm]

Next Sundays cold core low looks interesting we just need it to tap into more moisture then we'll be in business.

Agreed. I think the potential exists for a more significant winter storm in terms of size/scope than what we have seen thus far this winter season due to the synoptic setup.

[stormywaves]

Any chance this may extend to Houston area (winter mix)? I know it is almost impossible but.....

[dhweather]

Downright depressing. 18Z GFS for DFW




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[Texas Snowman]

I believe 45 was supposed to be our high in Denison. Still sitting at 34 degrees.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Downright depressing. 18Z GFS for DFW


http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/9646/f5im.png

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This may be a total wishcast, but I'm going to chalk up the lack of moisture this weekend to the GFS habit of losing these storms in the 3-5 day range.