Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[vbhoutex]

A rarity in the deep south-29f with freezing fog in Niceville, FL.

[tim_in_ga]

So hadn't someone mentioned we have another one of these potentially in early February?

Seems like there might be something happening late next week. Gotta keep an eye on that one!

[SeGaBob]

Does anyone see any more opportunities for snow instead of ice for the deep south before winter ends?

Our local NWS didn't do so great with this last event... they called for 2 inches of snow but we got a dusting. Ice was probably about right though.

[BigB0882]

Only if the PNA cooperates. I get it confused but I think during our events the PNA was negative and it just went back to positive. It was positive in December and that is when Georgia and Florida torched. Louisiana was on the edge so BTR just received glancing blows from any cold front. I may have that backwards though on the negative and positive.

[northjaxpro]

Only if the PNA cooperates. I get it confused but I think during our events the PNA was negative and it just went back to positive. It was positive in December and that is when Georgia and Florida torched. Louisiana was on the edge so BTR just received glancing blows from any cold front. I may have that backwards though on the negative and positive.

BigB a positive PNA indicates height rises (ridging) across the EPAC or Western U.S. That is what we had all of January. +PNA most times bring a colder pattern across the central and eastern CONUS during winter.

[Ntxw]

Only if the PNA cooperates. I get it confused but I think during our events the PNA was negative and it just went back to positive. It was positive in December and that is when Georgia and Florida torched. Louisiana was on the edge so BTR just received glancing blows from any cold front. I may have that backwards though on the negative and positive.

BigB a positive PNA indicates height rises (ridging) across the EPAC or Western U.S. That is what we had all of January. +PNA most times bring a colder pattern across the central and eastern CONUS during winter.

You are correct northjax, a -PNA is the signal for southeast ridge.Storms move around the the ridge northward once it reaches the MS River from TX, the upper south like TN/N MS/AL can still be in the game but in general it features more warmth the closer you are Florida. A -NAO can negate some effects of a -PNA but the NAO has not cooperated much this winter. The PNA was negative much of December, and was very positive in January.

[hurricanehunter69]

I know this GFS run is in fantasy land [ 10 dayz out ]. But interesting and possibly our last chance on the coast. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[BigB0882]

Something to keep an eye on. It's a lot closer than when I usually see snowfall in our area which is usually another 100 hours out or so.

[Stormcenter]

Possible sleet in the forecast for S. LA. tomorrow morning.

[Lane]

[Lane]

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
351 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014

LAZ034>037-039-071-MSZ068>071-077-060000-
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-
NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MO NTPELIER...
BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...AMITE...KENTWOOD...CENTR EVILLE...
WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY...CROSBY...MCCOMB.. .TYLERTOWN...
PICAYUNE
351 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014

...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW MAY DEVELOP
FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY MORNING...

A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THURSDAY
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THIS PRECIPITATION OCCURS.
AT THIS TIME...NO ACCUMULATION OF ICE OR SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS SHORT-LIVED EVENT. SINCE NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...THERE
WILL BE NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THE AREA.

[timmeister]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
235 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014

LAZ016-023>026-MSZ045>066-072>074-062045-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
235 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

SNOW
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...THURSDAY

LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE FROM
DAYBREAK THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE TWENTY CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WHILE
THE SNOW IS FALLING MAY ALLOW A FEW SLICK SPOTS TO DEVELOP ON AREA
ROADWAYS...PARTICULARLY ON BRIDGES AND ELEVATED ROAD SURFACES.

[Lane]

923
WWUS82 KFFC 051931
SPSFFC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
231 PM EST WED FEB 5 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>073-075-
078>082-089-094-061200-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-
MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-GLASCOCK-HARRIS-
TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-MUSCOGEE-PEACH-
231 PM EST WED FEB 5 2014

...FAST MOVING SYSTEM TO BRING POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER TO AREA
THURSDAY EVENING...

OVERVIEW...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA THURSDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY SPREAD
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON INITIALLY BY 10 AM TO NOON. FROM
THERE...IT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TO START IN THE ATLANTA METRO
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S WHICH
WILL RESULT IN JUST A COLD RAIN. HOWEVER...AS THE RAIN
CONTINUES...THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WITH LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN
WITH THE RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF A LA GRANGE TO ATHENS LINE AND UP
TO THE ATLANTA METRO DURING THE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY. NORTH OF
THE METRO AND INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MAINLY SNOW BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. ALL THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ITS WAKE.

IMPACTS...
AT THIS POINT...THIS LOOKS TO BE A FAR DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN
LAST WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THE
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING. ALSO...LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
WILL FURTHER LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. BASED ON THESE
FACTORS...WE ARE GOING WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR MOST ALL
AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE. BY FAR...THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACT
WILL BE THE BLACK ICE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES
RUSH IN AND RESIDUAL WET ROADWAYS BECOME SLICK DUE TO ICE. THIS
THREAT COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES NOT
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL 10 AM.

SUMMARY...THIS IS A RAPIDLY EVOLVING WINTER WEATHER EVENT WITH THE
SCOPE REMAINING UNCERTAIN. WE WILL BE VIGOROUSLY INSPECTING THE
LATEST DATA TO COME IN THIS EVENING TO DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNTS IF
ANY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY TRAVEL.



$$

[timmeister]

This sure materialized rather quick.

18Z GFS @ 3 PM CST



18Z NAM @ 3 PM CST

[BigB0882]

Both of those maps are the NAM.

[timmeister]

Both of those maps are the NAM.

Thanks for pointing that out, I posted the wrong map on the first one.

[northjaxpro]

Thanks to the new snowpack across the Midwest / Ohio River valley region, this has allowed for the airmass to not moderate as fast as initially thought from a couple days ago. So, once again, some of you in LA, MS, and AL may see another wintry mix event with the upper level shortwave bringing moisture over the cold air mass. As stated above, it will be a shoreter-lived event compared to the prior two events in January.

[Stormcenter]

Looks like everyone gets to join in today.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsBySta ... pe=special

[Lane]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1104 AM CST THU FEB 6 2014

...SNOW AND SLEET COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS THROUGH THE DAY
IN MANY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY...

LAZ023>026-MSZ053>056-059>065-062300-
/O.NEW.KJAN.WW.Y.0002.140206T1704Z-140206T2300Z/
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINNSBORO...JONESVILLE...HARRISONBURG...
NEWELLTON...ST. JOSEPH...WATERPROOF...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...
WEST FERRIDAY...PORT GIBSON...CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...
WESSON...MAGEE...MENDENHALL...TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...FAYETTE...
NATCHEZ...BUDE...ROXIE...MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...
NEW HEBRON...PRENTISS...BASSFIELD...COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE
1104 AM CST THU FEB 6 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON.

* TIMING: NOW THROUGH MID AFTERNOON

* MAIN IMPACT: WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES.
MOST ACCUMULATIONS ON ROAD SURFACES WILL BE BRIEF ALTHOUGH TRAVEL
ACROSS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES COULD BECOME QUITE HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.