SPAC: EDNA - Tropical cyclone

[supercane4867]

19.1S 152.2E

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone Edna
Issued at 11:46 am EST Saturday 1 February 2014.



Remarks:
TROPICAL CYCLONE EDNA, CATEGORY 1, is expected to continue moving in a southeast direction today
and remain offshore of the Queensland coast. Tropical Cyclone Edna should become slow moving tonight
before weakening on Sunday morning.

[stormkite]

DQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0639 UTC 01/02/2014
Name: Tropical Cyclone Edna
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 20.8S
Longitude: 153.3E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [148 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 50 nm [95 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 01/1200: 20.7S 152.7E: 070 [135]: 030 [055]: 995
+12: 01/1800: 20.2S 151.8E: 085 [155]: 030 [055]: 996
+18: 02/0000: 19.1S 151.4E: 095 [180]: 025 [045]: 1000
+24: 02/0600: 17.9S 151.7E: 110 [200]: 025 [045]: 998
+36: 02/1800: 15.8S 152.8E: 130 [240]: 030 [055]: 996
+48: 03/0600: 14.5S 155.0E: 150 [275]: 030 [055]: 996
+60: 03/1800: 14.9S 157.9E: 170 [310]: 030 [055]: 997
+72: 04/0600: 17.0S 160.8E: 185 [345]: 030 [055]: 997
+96: 05/0600: 23.8S 166.1E: 230 [430]: 030 [055]: 996
+120: 06/0600: : : :
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with a 0.3 degree wrap, giving a
DT of 1.5. MT and PT give 1.5. FT based on MT and Dvorak constraints. However, a
CI of 3.0 has been maintained in line with the Dvorak rules since the system was
observed to be producing winds equivalent to such a CI 6 hours ago.

Tropical Cyclone Edna rapidly developed this morning along the active monsoon
trough in a low shear environment with warm surface temperatures of around 26-27
degrees. Edna is a midget system and has begun to dissipate as a little bit of
increased wind shear associated with an upper trough over the Tasman Sea begin
to impact the system.

Tropical Cyclone Edna should continue to move in a southeast direction for a
short period this evening under the influence of an upper low situated over
Queensland, though should begin to be steered northwards on Sunday by the low
level flow.


93P INVEST 140201 0600 20.1S 153.0E SHEM 25 998

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna
Issued at 11:01 pm EST Saturday 1 February 2014.



Remarks:
Edna has weakened below tropical cyclone strength. The remnant tropical low will drift northwest tonight and
then north on Sunday into the northern Coral Sea. Ex-tropical cyclone Edna will remain well off the coast and
poses no threat to mainland Queensland.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 20.2S 152.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 70 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MARION REEF, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL LLCC, WHICH IS POSITIONED
ON THE EQUATORWARD EDGE OF A SHEAR LINE. MSI INDICATED A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL ORGANIZATION FROM 31/2130 TO 2330Z;
HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION RAPIDLY DECAYED AND THE CURRENT
ORGANIZATION IS MARGINAL. A 010408Z NOAA-19 IMAGE CURRENTLY
INDICATES WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MARION
REEF PEAKED AT 44 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH AN SLP OF 997 MB (31/1730 TO
1900Z) BUT THESE SHORT-LIVED, GALE-FORCE WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLLAPSING THUNDERSTORM, WHICH WAS POSITIONED OVER
THE REEF. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS), ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES, AND WEAK BAROCLINICITY RELATED TO THE SHEAR LINE
INTERACTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
BASED ON THE DYNAMIC MODELS, WHICH INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[hurricanes1234]

What is going on with the Southern Hemisphere as of lately? All of a sudden, everything is behaving like the 2013 hurricane season where every system is drying out and succumbing to unfavourable conditions. I'm not saying this is a bad thing, but I wonder what's causing it?

[Hurricane_Luis]

What is going on with the Southern Hemisphere as of lately? All of a sudden, everything is behaving like the 2013 hurricane season where every system is drying out and succumbing to unfavourable conditions. I'm not saying this is a bad thing, but I wonder what's causing it?

Model Set Wrap:




Well, for the South-Western Indian Ocean, The GFS has 2 and possibly 3 Tropical Cyclones forming in the next 3 weeks. All of moderate intensity (50-115 knots). The South Pacific Ocean also develops 4 Tropical Cyclones, as seen in the second image a train of 3 pretty weak TC's. But, see that Low in the Gulf of Carpentaria, yep, that also develops with a forecast intensity of around 50-70 knots. So,hurricanes1234, that quiet period you wrote about, Only another 9 days to wait and it will be over.

**Insert Disclaimer Here**

[stormkite]

ex-Edna as it curves to the south track.

[stormkite]

IDQ20068
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0657 UTC 03/02/2014
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 13.8S
Longitude: 154.5E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east [080 deg]
Speed of Movement: 13 knots [24 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 03/1200: 13.4S 155.7E: 040 [080]: 030 [055]: 996
+12: 03/1800: 13.4S 156.9E: 055 [100]: 030 [055]: 995
+18: 04/0000: 13.8S 158.3E: 065 [125]: 030 [055]: 994
+24: 04/0600: 14.7S 159.8E: 080 [145]: 035 [065]: 993
+36: 04/1800: 17.4S 161.3E: 100 [180]: 045 [085]: 990
+48: 05/0600: 20.0S 161.5E: 120 [220]: 045 [085]: 988
+60: 05/1800: 21.4S 161.2E: 140 [255]: 040 [075]: 988
+72: 06/0600: 22.4S 160.6E: 155 [290]: 035 [065]: 992
+96: 07/0600: 23.7S 158.5E: 200 [370]: 030 [055]: 994
+120: 08/0600: 22.6S 156.0E: 290 [535]: 030 [055]: 996
REMARKS:
A relatively small sized system and embedded in the monsoon trough, Ex-TC Edna
continued to maintain deep convection near its centre in the last 12 hours. The
system has been moving northeastwards but is expected to take a more
southeastwards track in the next 12 to 24 hours and then curve towards the south
due to an upper trough to its southwest.

Outflow remains very good in the northern and eastern quandrants. The system is
currently in a moderate shear zone however movement over the next 24 hours will
see the system in a reduced shear environment. This may enable the cloud
structures to improve with gales wrapping around a little further than just the
NE quadrant. The current intensity is based on Dvorak analysis of a curved band
wrapping 0.35 degrees, yielding a T=2.0.

As the system moves closer to New Caledonia by Thursday, the cyclone is likely
to come under the influence of stronger NW flow and hence weaken below Tropical
Cyclone intensity.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S
152.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 153.3E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. A 030011Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED YET RAGGED CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT,
UNDER A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna
Issued at 11:39 pm EST Monday 3 February 2014.



Remarks:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna is moving eastwards at 21 kilometres per hour and expected to deepen slowly over
the next 24 hours as it moves southeast toward New Caledonia. The system is located well off the coast of
Queensland and is not likely to have an immediate impact on Queensland's weather.

[stormkite]

ABPW10 PGTW 032300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/032300Z-040600ZFEB2014//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/032251ZFEB2014//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030351ZFEB2014//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S
153.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 157.4E, APPROXIMATELY 725 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031642Z NOAA-18
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE, BEGINNING TO TIGHTLY WRAP INTO THE LLCC. A RECENT ASCAT PASS
SHOWS A 20 TO 25 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH 30 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
DUE TO IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION AND UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

NNNN

[stormkite]

.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6S
157.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 159.6E, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY,
FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER
INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. SEE REF A (WTPS22 PGTW
032300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. DUE TO THE SUSTAINED FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[jaguarjace]

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone EDNA
Issued 0717 UTC Tuesday 4 February 2014.



TROPICAL CYCLONE EDNA 12F CENTRE 995HPA CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S
160.1E AT 040600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
18 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED PAST 12 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT AROUND THE LLCC IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.
SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST AND NORTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.
SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE EAST OF SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YEILDING DT OF
3.0, MET=3.5 AND PT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION.

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20032.txt

[stormkite]

12P EDNA 140204 1800 18.9S 163.0E SHEM 40 993


Deep convention looks on this sat-pic to be rapidly intensifying.







[ADT 2014FEB04 233200 3.7 982.0 +1.2 59.0
looks to be more on the mark in-line with the above sat-pic presentation. [/b]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[stormkite]

Hopefully no serious injury's or damage New Caledonia was brushed by the stronger side of the cyclone.


12P EDNA 140205 0000 20.4S 163.4E SHEM 50 985

[euro6208]

WTPS32 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (EDNA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (EDNA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 22.1S 164.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 164.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 24.4S 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 26.6S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 28.7S 167.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 31.0S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 35.0S 175.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 164.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (EDNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 89 NM WEST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE DEPTH EVEN AS
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAS BEGUN TO FRAY - AN INDICATION OF
INCREASING SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION ON A RADAR LOOP FROM METEO FRANCE, NEW CALEDONIA, WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE DEPTH.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 07 DEGREES
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGHING LOCATED ABOUT
FIVE DEGREES TO THE WEST. HOWEVER, THE VWS IS OFFSET BY SPEED
DIVERGENCE INTO GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST. TC EDNA WILL CONTINUE ALONG ITS CURRENT
TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO
SUSTAINED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
AFTER TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP WELL BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC EDNA
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 72 WITH THE STRONG
POSSIBILITY OF DISSIPATION OCCURRING EARLIER BY ABOUT TAU 48. NUMERIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z. //
NNNN