Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ntxw]

Thanks for your reply Ntxw. I really value your knowledge and expertise. Just to give you a little background on myself, I moved to Texas from Iowa in 1997 at the age of 12. In Iowa, I was lucky enough to have a babysitter whose father was a meteorologist at the NWS in Davenport, IA. I was able to visit the NWS several times a learn a lot. When I moved to Texas, I had a school project that put me in touch with a meteorologist at the NWS in Fort Worth who took me under his wing and helped me further expand my meteorological knowledge. To this day, I regret not majoring in meteorology, but I know that it will always be a lifelong passion. I feel like I have a lot to add and look forward to participating more actively with you all in these forums. And just so you all know, I am definitely in the cold mongerer camp .

You're welcome! Hope to see you active in the spring/summer thread as well as tropics! In addition to great link orangeblood sent, NWS FW has a great site for all things climo for the DFW area. Fairly simple to navigate once you get the hang of it.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=dfwclimo

[orangeblood]

0z GFS virga and flurries, a little chilly. Model output just how we like them, little thoughts needed.

haha, I like the approach...ignoring the obvious trend towards a deeper/more southern track of that shortwave on Friday and continued support of a Texas winter storm on Tuesday

[Ntxw]

0z GFS virga and flurries, a little chilly. Model output just how we like them, little thoughts needed.

haha, I like the approach...ignoring the obvious trend towards a deeper/more southern track of that shortwave on Friday

Got to please the masses! It only matters about the surface right? I mean countless meteograms will be posted of it looking dry . Besides, it would be said the models always shows snow this year 7 days out if we even mentions what it has a little after.

[Portastorm]

You two (Ntxw, orangeblood) are a veritable Laurel and Hardy tonight! Keep it up. You may be the evening entertainment here more often. We'll see what kind of entertainment budget we have left in the PWC financials.

[veedub63]

Happy National Weatherperson's Day to all you professional folks here. Keep up the good work.

[Ntxw]

Bundle up guys, north Texas might not get above freezing till sat. We may hit 50 freezes next week 42nd one today.

[WacoWx]

What a waste of some really cold air. I noticed a SLIGHT chance of flurries Thursday...but I'll take whatever I can get.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW AFD

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014/
ARCTIC AIR HAS INVADED THE REGION AND WILL SURGE THROUGH ALL OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL GLIDE SOUTH ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
TONIGHT...AND OUR NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNABATED
OVERNIGHT. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES PLUNGING INTO THE TEENS...
WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ZERO FAHRENHEIT IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CISCO AND WEATHERFORD...TO
MCKINNEY AND BONHAM. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS.

DESPITE BEING STRONGLY SHEARED...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL
STILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. CONSIDERING THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FEATURE...GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT IN TIMING (AS WELL AS PLACEMENT). BUT THE AMOUNT OF
FORCING VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY AMONG THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS...
AND THUS QPF OUTPUT RUNS THE GAMUT. REGARDLESS...THE LIFT IS MORE
THAN ADEQUATE TO SATURATE A DEEP LAYER WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...AND WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR IN THE SUB-CLOUD
LAYER TO OVERCOME...IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS OF AN IMPEDIMENT
THAN IS TYPICAL WITH SUCH A PATTERN. WITH SNOW-PRODUCTION PROCESSES
IN THE MID-LEVELS AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT REACHES THE GROUND WILL BE SNOW.
THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF THE AMOUNT OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...BUT THE NEW 06Z RUN HAS DISPLACED ITS
PERFECT-PROG PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS...
MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF (THOUGH THE LATTER HAS LESSER
AMOUNTS). WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE IMPULSE...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN AREAS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE
RED RIVER TO NEAR 30 PERCENT BUT MAINTAINED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER ONE INCH. ADDED A BUFFER ZONE OF FLURRIES TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH INCLUDES THE METROPLEX. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE FAR FROM WARNING CRITERIA...BUT AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF AMOUNTS ARE MORE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED FROM THEIR MINIMUM IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THURSDAY...LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW SOME LOW-
LYING LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS (DESPITE LINGERING
CLOUD COVER). A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH
LITTLE TIME FOR SUFFICIENT WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT...IT
WILL BE LIFTING A DRIER COLUMN. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO RE-INTRODUCE ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME

[srainhoutx]

A strong cold front is pushing across SE Texas at this hour and should be near the Coast by mid morning. Temperatures may struggle to reach 50 today before clouds advance across Texas as a short wave advances E toward Texas and the Southern Plains. Over running very light precip should develop tomorrow as a weak Coastal trough develops and the upper air disturbance arrives. Temperatures on Thursday may struggle to reach the low 40's as a thick cloud cover blankets our Region and cold air advection continues over a snow covered Central and Southern Plains. The fly in the ointment is that light QPF may develop on Thursday into Friday as the upper level system nears N Central Texas and a bit more lift is generated as surface temperatures drop to near or just below freezing mainly N of I-10 extending into Louisiana. While the precip is expected to be very light mist or drizzle, in the order of .01 to possibly .10 In some isolated locations, there is a chance that a few hours of freezing drizzle or very light freezing rain may accumulate on elevated surfaces. Across the Panhandle and N Texas, light snow should develop although amounts will be light. Travel issues are not expected at this time for Thursday into Friday morning, but Winter Weather Advisory criteria may be met.. The trend via the shorter range meso guidance as well as the Euro is a bit stronger short wave than originally expected earlier this week, so it is worth monitoring as the day unfolds into tomorrow. A major travel issue again is not expected, so just something to be aware of.

[wxman57]

Cheer up Dallas-Ft. Worth folks! Next week you just might have a shot at some freezing rain! Meanwhile ---

[TheProfessor]

So if this storm is coming for Mexico, is there a chance it could be stronger than predicted?

[Ntxw]

DFW is -5.7F below normal at the moment. After the next few days first week of Feb could end up between 7-10F below normal and next week will likely be well below normal making the first half of the month well below normal. DJF is guaranteed to be below to well below (hello NOAA). Barring an all out heat wave the last 2 weeks (no more freezez, 70s/80s/90s) this winter DJF could end up top 10 and give 09/10 a run for its money at 8.

[wxman57]

So if this storm is coming for Mexico, is there a chance it could be stronger than predicted?

The disturbance is over southern California now. It's not likely going to be a big surprise. The question is whether there just might be enough moisture to squeeze out a few small snowflakes across NE TX. The air aloft will certainly be sub-freezing. But the moisture will all be mid-level (8000-15000ft). Snow could fall from that height and sublimate in the drier air below before reaching the ground.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Boy it sure does seem like everyone just gave up in this thread!

[stormywaves]

So Travis Herzog on 13 ABC in Houston said we may get Wintery precipiataion tomorrow morning here in Hoston is that even possible? Heard him as I was getting dressed.

[ndale]

Boy it sure does seem like everyone just gave up in this thread!

Haven't given up, just not expecting much. Waiting to see what the disturbance is like after it crosses Mexico.

[Ntxw]

So if this storm is coming for Mexico, is there a chance it could be stronger than predicted?

Meteograms says flurries and some virga at your altitude in the atmosphere. For everyone else in central and SE Tx it says drizzle and chilly.

[joshskeety]

The low is deeper than the models originally predicted.. (Typical) Instead of nothing, the models are saying the Metroplex will see a dusting to a quarter inch of snow.. While north and west of the Metroplex should see an inch, maybe locally 2 inches.

This is going to be one of those crazy storms that look mean and everyone is going to be excited when its building across west Texas... Then realize how much Virga there is once the radar is lit up over ya...

Problem is basically what Texas' problem has been all year when it comes to large winter storms.. The arctic air comes in fast and furious, shuts down the gulf so these cut off lows are limited to only what pacific moisture is in them and what Pacific moisture is left has to battle the dry air to get any moisture out of it. Takes a lot to get a storm to have a negative tilt and be in the right place to tap into the Gulf with arctic air around here like what happened Christmas a few years ago..

This one looked good a week ago, looked worse yesterday, but once the low got over land it had more moisture and stronger than was thought, but not enough to deepen over Texas and sure not enough to tap into our big ole swimmin' pool to the south...

[wxman57]

So Travis Herzog on 13 ABC in Houston said we may get Wintery precipiataion tomorrow morning here in Hoston is that even possible? Heard him as I was getting dressed.

Chances are quite slim, at best, of seeing any freezing rain or sleet tomorrow morning. If you're thinking snow then forget it.

[Portastorm]

Let me take this opportunity to wish wxman57 and jeff -- the two pro mets most active on this Winter Weather forum -- the happiest of Weatherperson's Day! Thank you gentlemen for your good work and the time you spend on this board, dealing with us amateurs and patiently educating us and engaging us in conversation. You're both fine fellows!