Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman57]

The meteograms posted are raw 2m temperature data not MOS guidance. There can be quite a bit of difference between the 2-meter temps and the final MOS guidance temps. Yesterday's 12Z GFS meteogram for DFW was 3 deg warmer than today's (for the 21Z temp today) and 1 degree warmer than today's (for the 21Z temp tomorrow). But todays' run is almost 20 deg colder for Friday (38 vs. 56). Either way, temps aren't the issue for tomorrow. The big question is whether there's enough moisture that any snow reaches the ground in NE TX.

[South Texas Storms]

Happy National Weatherperson's Day!

Here's a short description about this day: National Weatherperson's Day, is a holiday observed on February 5 primarily in the United States. It recognizes individuals in the fields of meteorology, weather forecasting and broadcast meteorology, as well as volunteer storm spotters and observers. It is observed on the birthday of John Jeffries, one of the United States' first weather observers who took daily measurements from 1774 to 1816. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=21403&source=0

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1118 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014

.UPDATE...
SNOW EVENT DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND LINGERING INTO THURSDAY
LOOKING MORE LIKELY AS 12Z MODEL RUN SHOWING GOOD CONTINUITY.
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER ARIZONA LOOKING MORE IMPRESSIVE ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THAN MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE...BUT TREND SHOULD BE
TOWARD OPENING AS JET STREAK ACROSS NRN MEXICO TO CNTL TX
STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS SHIFTING EWD. DESPITE THAT A PERIOD OF MID
TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT APPEARS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT FOCUSED
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE. SOME MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
COMPONENT NOTED IN THE MODELS THAT MAY HELP SRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA GET IN ON THE ACTION AS WELL. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING NECESSARY
WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT...
BUT THAT PROCESS ONGOING ACROSS NRN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE PER
MID LEVEL ECHOES ON 88D NETWORK AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS PER IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. PREVIOUS IDEA OF AROUND 2 INCHES NORTH AND AN
INCH OR LESS SOUTH STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR FAVORED AREAS AS WELL FOR TONIGHT...AND
HAVE INTRODUCED SNOW MENTION ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES FOR THIS AFTN
WITH ONGOING TRENDS OF TOP-DOWN MECHANISM. WILL ADJUST POPS FOR
THURSDAY WITH THE AFTN PACKAGE AND LIKELY WILL ISSUE WINTER WX
ADVISORY THEN AS WELL CLOSER TO ONSET OF THE EVENT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1132 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014

.AVIATION.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY MORNING AND BRING
LIFT/MOISTURE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE METROPLEX. BEST LIFT AND
SNOWFALL WILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX...BUT WILL INDICATE
6SM -SN FROM 15Z TO 18Z. WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING...WHATEVER
FALLS WILL NOT MELT AND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
METROPLEX AIRPORTS.

Also, the Amarillo NWS just issued a Winter Weather Advisory for parts of the Texas Panhandle; 1-4" are possible per Amarillo NWS.

[orangeblood]

The meteograms posted are raw 2m temperature data not MOS guidance. There can be quite a bit of difference between the 2-meter temps and the final MOS guidance temps. Yesterday's 12Z GFS meteogram for DFW was 3 deg warmer than today's (for the 21Z temp today) and 1 degree warmer than today's (for the 21Z temp tomorrow). But todays' run is almost 20 deg colder for Friday (38 vs. 56). Either way, temps aren't the issue for tomorrow. The big question is whether there's enough moisture that any snow reaches the ground in NE TX.

My main point was regarding next Tuesday's potential storm and the continued underestimating of temps by the GFS until 48 hours out...the raw temps on the meteograms you posted late last week were showing high temps for today Feb. 5 and tomorrow Feb. 6 of 35 deg F, they now aren't even forecast to get above 29 F. It had been repeated numerous times on here that because of the fresh snowcover and continued reinforced HP's coming down from Canada that the models will underestimate the cold. Well sure enough, that reasoning was correct. The big question next week appears to be cold, not moisture and thus I'm attempting to make the logical conclusion (because of the current problems with the GFS) that temps for next Tuesday will be colder than forecast.

[HockeyTx82]

It's been said that the systems that show the most promise tend to be a let down and the ones that show nothing tend to be the surprises. Here's to hoping this is one of those that surprise

[wxman57]

The meteograms posted are raw 2m temperature data not MOS guidance. There can be quite a bit of difference between the 2-meter temps and the final MOS guidance temps. Yesterday's 12Z GFS meteogram for DFW was 3 deg warmer than today's (for the 21Z temp today) and 1 degree warmer than today's (for the 21Z temp tomorrow). But todays' run is almost 20 deg colder for Friday (38 vs. 56). Either way, temps aren't the issue for tomorrow. The big question is whether there's enough moisture that any snow reaches the ground in NE TX.

My main point was regarding next Tuesday's potential storm and the continued underestimating of temps by the GFS until 48 hours out...the raw temps on the meteograms you posted late last week were showing high temps for today Feb. 5 and tomorrow Feb. 6 of 35 deg F, they now aren't even forecast to get above 29 F. It had been repeated numerous times on here that because of the fresh snowcover and continued reinforced HP's coming down from Canada that the models will underestimate the cold. Well sure enough, that reasoning was correct. The big question next week appears to be cold, not moisture and thus I'm attempting to make the logical conclusion (because of the current problems with the GFS) that temps for next Tuesday will be colder than forecast.

Well, of course, I wouldn't take such meteograms as gospel for next week's temps. The meteograms are more of a way to compare model runs than to make an actual forecast. Much can change in 4-5 days. Heck, maybe temps will be a lot warmer next week than the GFS is forecasting. I can dream...

[Tejas89]

so.. We could be around 15 to 17 with light snow or flurries Thursday a.m. A very rare combination for these parts. Usually those temps are accompanied by bone dry air and cloudless skies.

[gpsnowman]

At the onset of snow here in DFW, weather it is light or heavy, there is usually a period of melting before any accumulation takes place. I am reminded of a fascinating snow episode just before the Super Bowl here in 2011. As you all remember, it had been below freezing for a long period before the snow started falling. I think is was a Friday. The snow was very powdery due to the dry airmass that it was falling through, but it was snowing quite heavily. What fascinated me was that absolutely no ground melt occurred. Literally within a minute everything was coated white. No melt whatsoever. I had never seen anything like that before in DFW. It was awesome to watch. So whatever falls tomorrow, however light, should stick without much melting. Will be interesting to watch.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The Euro continues to indicate a LITTLE more moisture for the system on Friday across north Texas; especially across southern Oklahoma. The 00Z and 12Z have increased amounts compared to the prior run. Just thought I'd point it out. May be fun to watch.

Also, Norman NWS, just said they will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for a large portion of west/central Oklahoma and northwestern Texas for tonight-Thursday.

[orangeblood]

Tuesday's system is starting to look very very interesting for a big portion of the State, maybe even down to PWC headquarters !!!!

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Tuesday's system is starting to look very very interesting for a big portion of the State, maybe even down to PWC headquarters !!!!

I concur! Surprisingly the guidance is somewhat agreeing.

[ludosc]

At the onset of snow here in DFW, weather it is light or heavy, there is usually a period of melting before any accumulation takes place. I am reminded of a fascinating snow episode just before the Super Bowl here in 2011. As you all remember, it had been below freezing for a long period before the snow started falling. I think is was a Friday. The snow was very powdery due to the dry airmass that it was falling through, but it was snowing quite heavily. What fascinated me was that absolutely no ground melt occurred. Literally within a minute everything was coated white. No melt whatsoever. I had never seen anything like that before in DFW. It was awesome to watch. So whatever falls tomorrow, however light, should stick without much melting. Will be interesting to watch.

i remember that night very well...was amazed at how everything stuck immediately.

here's a video i took of the snow falling that night. I busted my ass on the pavement right before taking this because of how slick everything was.

http://youtu.be/LABimgNFFQY

[davidiowx]

I find it odd that the NWS still has a 30% chance of winter precip for my area tomorrow morning.

[aggiecutter]

Tuesday's system is starting to look very very interesting for a big portion of the State, maybe even down to PWC headquarters !!!!

The GFS is showing a pretty good snow event for NE Texas next Wednesday.

[SnowintheFalls]

Winter Weather Advisory issued for Wichita Falls and surrounding counties. How significant does this appear to be for N Texas?

[wxman57]

Tuesday's system is starting to look very very interesting for a big portion of the State, maybe even down to PWC headquarters !!!!

The GFS is showing a pretty good snow event for NE Texas next Wednesday.

I'm looking at a loop of projected snowfall for NE TX for next Tue/Wed and see < 0.1" liquid, which would equate to perhaps a trace all the way to 1" of snow. Core of snow is from the central TX Panhandle to north-central OK.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW UPDATE

.UPDATE...
A COLD DAY IS IN STORE FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS DESPITE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT
FOR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGHS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN REACHED. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S WITH 30S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EARLY MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP QUITE
NICELY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC HAS IT ANALYZED STRONGER
THAN ANY OF THE OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. IT APPEARS THAT WE MAY
HAVE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS A BIT FOR TOMORROW. THESE CHANGES WILL BE MADE IN THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

NWS FTW UPDATE

.UPDATE...
A COLD DAY IS IN STORE FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS DESPITE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT
FOR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGHS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN REACHED. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S WITH 30S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EARLY MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP QUITE
NICELY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC HAS IT ANALYZED STRONGER
THAN ANY OF THE OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. IT APPEARS THAT WE MAY
HAVE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS A BIT FOR TOMORROW. THESE CHANGES WILL BE MADE IN THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST

It's go time! Time to wax my sled!

[Portastorm]

Tuesday's system is starting to look very very interesting for a big portion of the State, maybe even down to PWC headquarters !!!!

The GFS is showing a pretty good snow event for NE Texas next Wednesday.

I'm looking at a loop of projected snowfall for NE TX for next Tue/Wed and see < 0.1" liquid, which would equate to perhaps a trace all the way to 1" of snow. Core of snow is from the central TX Panhandle to north-central OK.

There's some very large differences in the 6z and 12z GFS deterministic runs alone. I wouldn't trust it for next Tuesday-Wednesday as far as I could throw it ... other than to say it looks like a strong storm system will impact the Southern Plains/Texas with a variety of weather/p-types. Beyond that, pffff.

[Portastorm]

Surprised no one said anything about the 12z Euro. It looks a LOT wetter for south central Texas on Friday. Depending on surface temps that could end up being a big-ticket item.