ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,why the SOI is still very positive even with the strong MJO pulse moving east?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw,why the SOI is still very positive even with the strong MJO pulse moving east?

The MJO has not moved east, it's stuck in the WPAC. Also tropical cyclone Dylan may have some say in the pressures near Darwin. A lot of mix signals, neutral ups and downs who knows? Just went SST was in La Nina they warmed up against the +SOI.

[cycloneye]

I would like to see a definite route for ENSO in the next few months and not the mix signals it continues to have that we don't know what it will do at this point.

[hurricanes1234]

I would like to see a definite route for ENSO in the next few months and not the mix signals it continues to have that we don't know what it will do at this point.

I know, it's very frustrating and I agree 100%. It is acting like last year's season where everything turned out to defy forecasts. One week is warm, then the next is cold. Annoying!

[Ntxw]

Me too. Unfortunately that's why it's neutral. Neutral doesn't just mean even it could also be up and down to where they cancel each other out. The atmosphere continues to be stagnant until an El Nino or La Nina appears to give a definite pattern.

[cycloneye]

Here are some tweets by Levi Cowan,Eric Webb and NHC forecaster Blake about ENSO.


Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · Jan 30
Healthy WPAC warm pool and cool subsurface water in the east -- looks more like La Nina than El Nino setup for now. pic.twitter.com/7DSWdAHYPW


Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · Jan 30
@TropicalTidbits classic pre Nino setup/end of La Nina. Deep thermocline waiting for right atmospheric forcing

 Follow
Levi Cowan‏@TropicalTidbits · @EricBlake12 Except the trend has been towards a more bipolar subsurface anomaly profile during the last few months. pic.twitter.com/qKUSj8HpZ6

Eric Webb ‏@webberweather · Jan 30
@TropicalTidbits @EricBlake12 Current Pac MJO is helping generate decent WWBs. Think need to get deep into spring before worry about El nino

 Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · Jan 31
@TropicalTidbits Some time to wait and see, but definitely a family resemblance to some pre El Nino years e.g. 2009: pic.twitter.com/gFQBHvTdcD

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/sta ... 17/photo/1

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 2/3/14 update has Nino 3.4 down to -0.7C

Nothing new as the ups and downs continue.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[hurricanes1234]

Makes me wonder if this will keep going on until the beginning or middle of the season. The madness and uncertainty continues into 2014.

[Ntxw]

This is so fascinating what is going on. The surface is almost Nina like yet below it looks as if El Nino is getting ready to blow. For the first time since 09/10 we have an area of 4c+ trying to develop as the WPAC warm pool underneath is pushing east and up.



If we start seeing some red pop up look out

[ninel conde]

SOI +12.8 been positive for a long time.

[cycloneye]

The battle of the masses rages on. Let's see if that big warm pool in the WestCentral Pacific can dominate the cold pool or is the other way.

[cycloneye]

Ntxw, a very small black spot appears at the end of this saved loop.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, a very small black spot appears at the end of this saved loop.

Yes sir, that is a 5C+ anomaly, it is very impressive seen also in TAO/Triton sub surface. The longer this thing builds, come March and April when it arrives up the thermocline the warm anomalies will be impressive if it holds because the warmer anomalies in the west are even warmer to the east due to lower averages that way.

[euro6208]

Watching the loop and wondering if it strengthens some more and holds for an el nino to develop is really dramatic!

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center Febuary update made at 2/6/14

They call for Neutral to continue thru the Spring but El Nino is possible by the Summer.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
6 February 2014

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active


Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014.

While remaining ENSO-neutral, January was characterized by the periodic emergence of below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the tropical Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Weekly Niño index values in Niño-3 and Niño-3.4 bounced around -0.5oC, while Niño-4 and Niño-1+2 stayed within ±0.5oC (Fig. 2). This recent cooling was associated with the upwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave, which was reflected in a dip in the oceanic heat content (Fig. 3) and below-average subsurface temperatures at depth across the eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Upper and lower-level winds were near average across most of the Pacific, except for the emergence of strong westerly winds in the western part of the basin toward the end of the month. Convection became more enhanced over eastern Indonesia and the western Pacific and remained suppressed over the central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect ENSO-neutral.

Nearly all model forecasts indicate the persistence of ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5oC and 0.5oC) through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, but afterwards, an increasing number of models suggest the possible onset of El Niño (Fig. 6). Strong surface westerly winds in the western Pacific and the slight eastward shift of above-average temperatures in the subsurface western Pacific potentially portend warming in the coming months. However, the spring is also historically associated with lower forecast skill, so the chance of El Niño developing after the spring is not much different from ENSO-neutral. The consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest update of early Febuary that shows a slow warming trend.



http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... -quicklook

[tolakram]

Wayback quote to the February forecast from last year. Just for fun.

Here is the early Febuary update consensus of the models that show how Neutral hangs on thru August, September, October but El Nino creeps up by the September, October, November period.

[cycloneye]

Yep. The models have been wacky on ENSO for many months ago. That is why IMO is better to follow what is going on in real time with the PDO,SOI,ESPI and Subsurface waters rather than stick with the models.

[Frank2]

Interesting - then again, the NWS predicted no rain at all for Calfornia this week, but they are having rain today. If an El Nino does form and shuts down the 2014 season that would be something...

Just my guess, but the older I get hurricanes do seems less and less common that in earlier decades, that's even counting the slow seasons back then (with the exception of 2004 and 2005, of course), and that's significant because in decades past (before the 1980's) satellite technology wasn't what it is today...

[cycloneye]

ESPI turns positive

After many months being very negative the ESPI has turned to the positive side. Ntxw,is this something important that it flipped to positive or we have to wait for other factors to say there is a true warming trend?