Texas Winter 2013-2014

[gboudx]

Steve McCauley doesn't seem impressed.

There should be a large area of light snow approaching north Texas by tomorrow morning, but it will be in the collapsing stage, so maybe a few flurries for about 40% of us, but that's just about it. A sprinkle, sleet pellet or flurry will also possible late Friday, but still looks to be a real Yawner.

Next Tuesday is the day to watch for the next possible non-yawning event.

[TexasF6]

It is VERY cold at the Longhorn Wx Center in NW Austin!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 35, feels worse though, like 25 to me! Porta, is a surprise in the works for us tonight in NW Austin??

[Tireman4]

And HGX added even more to our forecast....Hummm (Wxman57.. )


Wednesday Night: A slight chance of rain between 3am and 5am, then a slight chance of flurries, freezing rain, and sleet after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. North wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Thursday: A slight chance of flurries, freezing rain, and sleet before 8am, then a slight chance of rain between 8am and 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. North wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

AFD:

VIATION...
BESIDES SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE EDGE OF A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARDS FROM THE SOUTH. CIGS
WILL START AROUND 10KFT AND SLOWLY START TO LOWER TO AROUND ~5KT
BY TOMORROW. CLOUDS SHOULD STAY VFR THOUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING
PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME FROZEN PRECIP. BOTH GFS AND NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR AROUND 850MB. THIS WOULD TEND TO FAVOR ANY
PRECIP THAT FORMS TO EVAPORATE BEFORE IT HITS THE GROUND. SOUNDING
PROFILES SUPPORT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR KCXO NORTHWARDS
WHILE ICE PELLETS FOR KSGR NORTHWARDS. THE NAM OMEGA FIELD SHOWS LIFT
OVER THE HOUSTON AREA WHILE THE GFS HAS THE BETTER LIFT OFFSHORE.
HIGH RES MODELS ARE A MIXTURE WITH THE TEXAS TECH WRF SHOWING
HARDLY ANY PRECIP WHILE THE NAM... NMM... AND ARW SHOW PRECIP
FORMING BUT HAVE TROUBLE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. IN THE END WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SNOW FLAKE/ ICE PELLET OR TWO TO MAKE IT
TO THE GROUND BUT AT THIS POINT THE CHANCE LOOKS LOW. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY STRETCHING THRU SRN AZ & NEW MEXICO
INTO MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURS MORNING. EXPECT TO
SEE SOME RETURNS BEGIN SHOWING UP ON RADAR AFTER 3 AM AS THE
DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER AND LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES.

PROBLEM IS MOISTURE WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED ABOVE 8000FT WITH DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER THRU MID MORNING THURS. SO...WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT
VAST MAJORITY OF RETURNS TO BE VIRGA WITH JUST AN ISOLATED,
INTERMITTENT, VERY LIGHT MIX REACHING THE GROUND FROM TIME TO TIME
THRU ABOUT 10 AM. NO SIGNIFICANT FROZEN ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED, NEITHER ARE ANY WINTER RELATED ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AT
THIS TIME.

THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION LATER IN THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT OCCURS, LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THEN
SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE SW & PRESERVE MCLDY AND COLD CONDITIONS
THRU THE DAY.

EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND ACROSS
TX LATE FRI BRINGING A (SLIGHT) CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE.

ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND PRESSURES FALL TO THE WEST. DIFFERENCES
ARISE IN MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS ON SUNDAY WHEN GFS TRIES TO BRING A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THRU THE AREA. ECMWF GENERALLY STALLS
AND MEANDERS THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SE TX LATE SUN THRU WED MORNING
UNTIL IT GETS A NUDGE FROM THE NEXT INCOMING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST. TIMING & DETAILS ASIDE, IT APPEARS WE SHOULD GET SOME SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. STARTED TRENDING FCST CLOSER
TO THE MORE PROLONGED ECMWF CHANCES THAT ALSO PROVIDES A SFC
FOCUSING MECHANISM. 47

[Ntxw]

18z GFS output says just virga and fading flurries guys, is all for tomorrow nothing to see here.

[iorange55]

18z GFS output says just virga and fading flurries guys, is all for tomorrow nothing to see here.

Cloudy with a chance of sarcasm.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS output says just virga and fading flurries guys, is all for tomorrow nothing to see here.

Cloudy with a chance of sarcasm.

It's not sarcasm, that's really what it says . I'm just reporting how people want it!

[South Texas Storms]

Ntxw, where has your optimism gone? I miss it!
The latest runs of the HRRR and RAP are showing around .50 inch of snow early tomorrow morning around DFW.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Ntxw, where has your optimism gone? I miss it!

I was accused of posting maps and having it be interpreted the wrong way. Too much thought and effort than just to give what the models say, better to keep it simple and not run the risk.

[SnowintheFalls]

Any thoughts on what the models are showing for the Wichita Falls area tonight?

[Ntxw]

Any thoughts on what the models are showing for the Wichita Falls area tonight?

GFS and Euro says you are cold enough but mostly dry. 18z is a dusting to maybe half inch for the falls area.

[gboudx]

:uarrow: Ntxw, where has your optimism gone? I miss it!

I was accused of posting maps and having it be interpreted the wrong way. Too much thought and effort than just to give what the models say, better to keep it simple and not run the risk.

Are you referring to our discussion yesterday? If there's a problem here I'm not aware of, we can discuss that via PM. I know I wasn't giving you any grief over what you posted. I enjoy reading what your thoughts are.

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow: Ntxw, where has your optimism gone? I miss it!

I was accused of posting maps and having it be interpreted the wrong way. Too much thought and effort than just to give what the models say, better to keep it simple and not run the risk.

I don't know about that, I really enjoyed your detailed thoughts and model interpretation. I feel like people here can learn more that way. They just need to read the disclaimer in your signature before taking what you say verbatim.

[SnowintheFalls]

:uarrow: Ntxw, where has your optimism gone? I miss it!

I was accused of posting maps and having it be interpreted the wrong way. Too much thought and effort than just to give what the models say, better to keep it simple and not run the risk.

It's a shame that people cannot comprehend the true unpredictability of Mother Nature. While Mets and this board provide a great service to us all, some people just cannot take it when things do not go the way they want. You cannot will the weather no matter how hard anybody tries!

[Ntxw]

Here is the DFW RAP sounding late in the run, it looks from top to bottom well saturated and is a powder snow profile



Here is Austin's both are for late tomorrow morning. Good for snow making but could use a bit more saturation at 850 or 5k feet up, mid level moisture.

[dhweather]

BETA PROGRAM


A coworker and I have been working to make a better spreadsheet for creating meteograms. All you need is Excel with macros enabled. This is incredibly easy to use, click the create a chart button, select state and city from the drop down menus, then click create chart. The spreadsheet does the rest! No more cut and paste, and all that jazz.

A couple of kinks we're working out, it's saying 21Z for the 18Z GFS, but the data is correct. Give it a shot, download it here: http://www.heathweather.com/GFS_Chart_Creator.xlsm

[TheProfessor]

Here is the DFW RAP sounding late in the run, it looks from top to bottom well saturated and is a powder snow profile



Here is Austin's both are for late tomorrow morning. Good for snow making but could use a bit more saturation at 850 or 5k feet up, mid level moisture.

Yeah that DFW looks really good compared to the one posted earlier.

[Ntxw]

Wichita falls is a little earlier in the morning, similar to DFW's soundings. The precip isn't as heavy on that model as areas just to the south and not as saturated but would be efficient at producing powdery snow.

[TheProfessor]

BETA PROGRAM


A coworker and I have been working to make a better spreadsheet for creating meteograms. All you need is Excel with macros enabled. This is incredibly easy to use, click the create a chart button, select state and city from the drop down menus, then click create chart. The spreadsheet does the rest! No more cut and paste, and all that jazz.

A couple of kinks we're working out, it's saying 21Z for the 18Z GFS, but the data is correct. Give it a shot, download it here: http://www.heathweather.com/GFS_Chart_Creator.xlsm

lol you make it look like we are going to get a lot of rain.

[Ntxw]

The later part of the HRRR has banding features streaking from west Texas. At the very least it looks like some light snow especially underneath a good band. If both of these short term models are correct given the cold temperature profiles it would be not so easy to melt snow flakes on the ground.

[gboudx]

BETA PROGRAM


A coworker and I have been working to make a better spreadsheet for creating meteograms. All you need is Excel with macros enabled. This is incredibly easy to use, click the create a chart button, select state and city from the drop down menus, then click create chart. The spreadsheet does the rest! No more cut and paste, and all that jazz.

A couple of kinks we're working out, it's saying 21Z for the 18Z GFS, but the data is correct. Give it a shot, download it here: http://www.heathweather.com/GFS_Chart_Creator.xlsm

This is really cool of you to make. When I click Create Chart I get an error saying, "Compile error in hidden module: UserForm1". I can help you debug any issues if you need help, but we should take it to PM before Porta lays down the hammer.