Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Rgv20]

Well its been a cold/raw day here in Deep South Texas.....Since early this morning until now (3PM) the temperature at my backyard has been hovering between 33/34 with light drizzle. A couple of degrees colder and it would have been an icy mess!

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
304 PM CST THU FEB 6 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN
ISSUED FOR CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...

TXZ122-135-146>148-161-162-070515-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WW.Y.0005.140207T1500Z-140208T0000Z/
VAN ZANDT-HENDERSON-NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LIMESTONE-LEON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...
VAN...EDGEWOOD...ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...CORSICANA...TEAGUE...
FAIRFIELD...PALESTINE...MEXIA...GROESBECK...BUFFALO...
CENTERVILLE...JEWETT...OAKWOOD
304 PM CST THU FEB 6 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY.

* LOCATION...THIS STATEMENT IS FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A CANTON TO
CORSICANA TO GROESBECK LINE.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MID MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN THE DAY BELOW FREEZING AND SLOWLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON. ONCE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING...THE THREAT FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION WOULD END.

* MAIN IMPACT...DUE TO SUBFREEZING ROAD TEMPERATURES...ANY
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WOULD RESULT IN LIGHT ICING ON ROADWAYS.
THIS WOULD MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.

* ACCUMULATION...ONLY A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

[aggiecutter]

DGEX, JMA and GFS models are the most aggressive with Tuesday's storm....bringing in colder temps as heaviest precip is moving through.

DGEX has a major storm breaking out next week from Texas to the Carolina's...check out some of these snow totals (for entertainment purposes only), crazy sleet storm breaking out Tuesday morning.....

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll ... ype132.gif

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll ... now192.gif


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

12z GFS progs Texarkana with >.50 of ice next Tuesday-Wednesday. Hopefully, it will be in the form of sleet or snow. However, it'll probably all ice for me, as that is how it has been all winter.

[wxman57]

OK, that's it! You get one more winter storm in 2014 next week and you're done! I'm taking over the weather across Texas. Euro and GFS indicate some very nice warm temperature anomalies spreading across the SW U.S. through Texas after the middle of next week. GFS has SE TX into the mid to upper 70s in the extended range, possibly even to 80.

[veedub63]

OK, that's it! You get one more winter storm in 2014 next week and you're done! I'm taking over the weather across Texas. Euro and GFS indicate some very nice warm temperature anomalies spreading across the SW U.S. through Texas after the middle of next week. GFS has SE TX into the mid to upper 70s in the extended range, possibly even to 80.

You have yourself a deal. Without doubt, one of the most interesting winters in some time, however I'm growing weary of the cold. Bring the warmth. Time for some outdoor activities.

[ravyrn]

OK, that's it! You get one more winter storm in 2014 next week and you're done! I'm taking over the weather across Texas. Euro and GFS indicate some very nice warm temperature anomalies spreading across the SW U.S. through Texas after the middle of next week. GFS has SE TX into the mid to upper 70s in the extended range, possibly even to 80.

Only if you let the system squeeze out some wintry fun in my neck of the woods. Everything has either been to my north or south this winter. I got maybe .25" of snow from the first southern storm last month.

[Ntxw]

I will let go of the pedal for a week or two wxman57, then Im taking control of the EPO back to cold end Feb and March. Significant changes are happening in Enso for those wondering about the possible coming of El Nino which is growing in possibility for 2014.

[wxman57]

OK, that's it! You get one more winter storm in 2014 next week and you're done! I'm taking over the weather across Texas. Euro and GFS indicate some very nice warm temperature anomalies spreading across the SW U.S. through Texas after the middle of next week. GFS has SE TX into the mid to upper 70s in the extended range, possibly even to 80.

Only if you let the system squeeze out some wintry fun in my neck of the woods. Everything has either been to my north or south this winter. I got maybe .25" of snow from the first southern storm last month.

I think you're SOL there in Jacksonville unless you can get a bit of freezing rain next Tue/Wed. How does that sound?

[Tcu101]

Steve McCualey facebook post. Interesting

I left the conference I was attending a little early today to check out why we many places in the Metroplex received more snowfall than expected, but more importantly why the snow was relatively WET. This was supposed to be a dry snow for the Metroplex!

This is where my experience in snow forecasting actually turned around and bit me. What do I mean by that?

Well, most of you knew that snow was coming today, and the computer models did a pretty good job in forecasting the beginning and ending time of the snow, and they were pretty much in agreement that accumulations would be 1/2" or less. And this is what we saw for most areas, althoguh there have been a few 1"+ amounts.

But again, the snow amounts are not the real issue here: it was the water content of that snow.

This snow was expected to be dry with relatively small flakes falling harmlessly to the ground resulting in lazy snow swirls drifting across the roads, resulting in no major traffic issues.

But did you see the size of those flakes today!?! I personally have never - and the word is NEVER - seen snowflakes of that size when temepratures were at 19 °F and the air so dry. That was a shocker as I sat at my conference this morning looking out the window which is why I had to update the forecast on FB, but I wasnt sure why

So now that I am home and had a chance to look at the data, it has become clear why we had such big flakes and why those flakes had a much higher water content resulting in slick roads.

The clouds producing the snow were much thicker than normal. You see, it's not unusual to have snow-bearing clouds to only be about 10,000 feet thick. Ours were over 20,000 feet thick today! That means ice crystals that formed at the top of these clouds were able to fall through 20,000 feet of cloud material, picking up more and more ice crystals along the way, allowing for bigger snowflakes with a relatively high water content.

And so as cars drove over the wet snow, melting them, temperatures were still in the low 20s which meant the water suddenly froze up again leaving sheets of ice.

So much for a dry powdery snowfall! You can bet the next time I forecast a dry powdery snow, I will make sure I look at the thickness of the clouds they're falling from!

[Ralph's Weather]

OK, that's it! You get one more winter storm in 2014 next week and you're done! I'm taking over the weather across Texas. Euro and GFS indicate some very nice warm temperature anomalies spreading across the SW U.S. through Texas after the middle of next week. GFS has SE TX into the mid to upper 70s in the extended range, possibly even to 80.

Only if you let the system squeeze out some wintry fun in my neck of the woods. Everything has either been to my north or south this winter. I got maybe .25" of snow from the first southern storm last month.

You have had better luck than Lindale, we had one morning with a slight dusting early on in this winter and that has been it. It does look like the system next week will be an I-20 one finally though, but it is not looking like a snow type setup.

[davidiowx]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 062146
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
346 PM CST THU FEB 6 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NEXT SHORTWAVE ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF TX FRI AFTN/EVNG CAN BE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN
CALIFORNIA. AS IT APPROACHES, EXPECT LLVLS BETWEEN 1000-8000 FT
TO GRADUALLY SATURATE THRU THE NIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING (GENERALLY
WSW TO ENE). FCST SOUNDINGS ARE BORDERLINE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRIZZLE/NO DRIZZLE AFTER 3 AM. SHOULD ANY OCCUR WITH SFC TEMPS
BELOW FREEZING IT COULD VERY WELL POSE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
(REMEMBER 1ST WINTER WX EVENT WITH FREEZING FOG? - THOSE TYPE
ISSUES). GOING TO HOLD OFF ON ADVSY ATTM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE &
LOW CHANCES. HAVE SOME TIME TO WATCH TRENDS BEFORE MAKING FINAL
DECISION RATHER THAN BLANKETING EVERYONE. WILL RECOMMEND ANYONE
THAT HAS TO MAKE A WX RELATED DECISION TO CHECK THE LATEST INFO BY
430AM.

BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTN/EVENING AS
LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF MAIN SHORTWAVE. GOOD
PART OF THAT AREA SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING AT THAT TIME.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS & WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS MON-WED REGARDING THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TODAYS ECMWF LOOKS
LIKE YDAYS FASTER GFS. GFS LOOKS LIKE THE PREVIOUSLY SLOWER
ECMWF. PRETTY MUCH LEFT FCST THE SAME BEYOND SUNDAY UNTIL WE SEE
SOME CONSISTENCY. STILL LOOKS DAMP REGARDLESS - JUST A MATTER OF
TIMING. 47

[weatherdude1108]

My boss sent this out to us.

NWS Austin/ San Antonio Weather Update 1445 CST....chances continue for frozen precipitation starting late tonight through Friday 020614
South Central Texas Partners....

...HEADLINE...Additional sleet/freezing drizzle/snow again late tonight into Friday...

...AREA OF CONCERN...All of South Central Texas but mainly east of a line from Leakey down to Carrizo Springs (Highway 83).

...IMPACTS...Late Tonight (after midnight) and Friday...light ice accumulation possible on bridges and overpasses and some roads. Road impacts will be highly dependent on type of precipitation and intensity. Exposed surfaces where cold air can get underneath (e.g., cars, decks) may see a light glazing of ice. Travel may get impacted, but no other impacts (power outages, trees down) expected. Arctic air will maintain cold temperatures across the region with a freeze expected overnight...while high temperatures on Friday could stay in the 30s all day once again.

...TIMING...Another round of winter precipitation could form during the overnight hours (starting mainly after midnight) and continuing at least through through noon on Friday. There are some indications that light precipitation could continue across the eastern half of the area into the afternoon hours. If the temperatures stay cold enough, frozen precipitation could occur into early afternoon.

...DISCUSSION...
The chances for freezing drizzle/sleet/snow are possible overnight (after midnight) Thursday into Friday as another upper level disturbance moves across Texas from the West. We have increased overall chances of frozen precipitation just a bit as some of the weather models are creating a better overall chance of seeing some light precipitation through mid day on Friday. Temperatures will definitely be cold enough to support frozen precipitation, confidence is low at the is point as to whether it will be freezing drizzle, sleet, snow, or these snow pellets like we saw this morning across the central sections of South Central Texas. In fact we may see reports of all those precipitation types on Friday. If precipitation does form, there would likely be travel impacts Friday morning, possibly lasting through early afternoon. Temperatures will remain very cold on Friday...struggling to get into the mid and upper 30s by late afternoon across the northern half of the area...some 40s are expected along the Rio Grande and southern half of the area. Any frozen precipitation that does fall will be very slow to melt and could in fact keep temperatures near freezing all day on Friday, similar to what we are seeing now.

Overall confidence that freezing temperatures will be in place is very HIGH. Overall confidence on the amount of precipitation is again low. As we have seen over the past week or so, its not taking much lift to create the frozen precipitation. We even had lightning and thunder here in New Braunfels with the frozen precipitation this morning, which helped to create quick bursts of precipitation and led to some accumulations on the ground and roads. Weather models have performed very poorly with these last few events and our confidence in them is rather low at this point. So judging from what the past few "disturbances" have brought to the area, all of South Central Texas needs to be ready to respond to frozen precipitation Friday morning into the early afternoon hours. Most of the impacts will be travel related with light icing possible on the bridges, overpasses, some roads, as well as icing on exposed surfaces. Reporting and good situational awareness is key. Road crews may be busy once again.

Check the forecast frequently as Winter Weather Advisories may be issued. You can monitor by going to our webpage for the latest forecasts and watches/warnings/advisories from the Austin-San Antonio National Weather Service. http://www.weather.gov/austin

Depending on conditions, the next email could be issued overnight and/or on Friday.

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio.
--

[TeamPlayersBlue]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 062146
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
346 PM CST THU FEB 6 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NEXT SHORTWAVE ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF TX FRI AFTN/EVNG CAN BE SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY IN
CALIFORNIA. AS IT APPROACHES, EXPECT LLVLS BETWEEN 1000-8000 FT
TO GRADUALLY SATURATE THRU THE NIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING (GENERALLY
WSW TO ENE). FCST SOUNDINGS ARE BORDERLINE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRIZZLE/NO DRIZZLE AFTER 3 AM. SHOULD ANY OCCUR WITH SFC TEMPS
BELOW FREEZING IT COULD VERY WELL POSE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
(REMEMBER 1ST WINTER WX EVENT WITH FREEZING FOG? - THOSE TYPE
ISSUES). GOING TO HOLD OFF ON ADVSY ATTM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE &
LOW CHANCES. HAVE SOME TIME TO WATCH TRENDS BEFORE MAKING FINAL
DECISION RATHER THAN BLANKETING EVERYONE. WILL RECOMMEND ANYONE
THAT HAS TO MAKE A WX RELATED DECISION TO CHECK THE LATEST INFO BY
430AM.

BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTN/EVENING AS
LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF MAIN SHORTWAVE. GOOD
PART OF THAT AREA SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING AT THAT TIME.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS & WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS MON-WED REGARDING THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TODAYS ECMWF LOOKS
LIKE YDAYS FASTER GFS. GFS LOOKS LIKE THE PREVIOUSLY SLOWER
ECMWF. PRETTY MUCH LEFT FCST THE SAME BEYOND SUNDAY UNTIL WE SEE
SOME CONSISTENCY. STILL LOOKS DAMP REGARDLESS - JUST A MATTER OF
TIMING. 47

Wait what?

[weatherdude1108]

000
WWUS44 KEWX 062156
WSWEWX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
356 PM CST THU FEB 6 2014

...COLD TEMPERATURES AND A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... A
ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 83.
EXPECT A MIXTURE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IN ADDITION... THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON ROADWAYS AND TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE IMPACTED FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO LIQUID BY NOON. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 71 COULD SEE WINTRY PRECIPITATION LINGER INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

TXZ171>173-186>194-204>209-219>225-071200-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WW.Y.0004.140207T1200Z-140207T1800Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-
HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-
FAYETTE-FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...
KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...BOERNE...BLANCO...
SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...
NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...PEARSALL...
PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...CUERO...
HALLETTSVILLE
356 PM CST THU FEB 6 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY.

* TIMING...AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT...LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ON
BRIDGES...OVERPASSES AND SOME SURFACE BASED ROADWAYS.

* OTHER IMPACTS...WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

[davidiowx]

Wait what?

Should be interesting this evening into the night (if something pops up on the radar). If so, no sleep for us lol

[ravyrn]

I think you're SOL there in Jacksonville unless you can get a bit of freezing rain next Tue/Wed. How does that sound?

No deal.

[aggiecutter]

NWS forecast for Texarkana for next week:

40% of freezing rain on Monday.
50% of snow and sleet Monday night.
50% of snow and sleet Tuesday.
50% of snow on Tuesday night.

[aggiecutter]

NWS forecast for Texarkana for next week:

40% of freezing rain on Monday.
50% of snow and sleet Monday night.
50% of snow and sleet Tuesday.
50% of snow on Tuesday night.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Wait what?

Should be interesting this evening into the night (if something pops up on the radar). If so, no sleep for us lol

I know right, what does the sounding look like?

[orangeblood]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 062156
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
356 PM CST THU FEB 6 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY HAS MOVED QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST
BUT THE NEXT ONE IS RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WILL RAPIDLY
MOVE EAST AND MOVE ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE DID NOT HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF THE FIRST SYSTEM
VERY WELL...BUT THE BETTER PERFORMERS WERE THE NAM AND RAP AND
THEREFORE WILL BE LEANING IN THEIR DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TOMORROWS FORECAST IS VERY LOW GIVEN OUR
FORECAST OF FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIP IS NOT REALLY SUPPORTED IN
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT WE ARE WARY OF THE
STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM ALSO BEING UNDERESTIMATED.

ONCE AGAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE STRONG BUT THE MAIN ISSUE IS
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE IS
ACTUALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT HIGH MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL
SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SLANTWISE CONVECTION
AND BANDED SNOWFALL IN THE AREA OF THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR 500 TO
600MB OR NEAR 18-22 THOUSAND FEET. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AND WILL LIKELY BE SEEN ON AREA RADARS. THE MODELS DIFFER
ON JUST HOW DRY THE AIRMASS WILL BE IN A LAYER NEAR 700 TO 850MB
OR ABOUT 5-10 THOUSAND FEET. WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF
AND ONE SREF MEMBER...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FALLING
SNOW WILL SUBLIMATE WHEN IT REACHES THIS DRY LAYER AND NOT REACH
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER AM NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS JUST YET...AT
LEAST NOT UNTIL WE CAN SEE THE MOISTURE PROFILES FROM THE EVENING
RAOBS AT MAF AND DRT. OBVIOUSLY THERE WAS A LOT MORE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE IN THE AREA THAN WAS FORECAST TODAY AND IT IS LIKELY
STILL HANGING AROUND. SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE RAP AND
NAM INDICATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE SNOW PRODUCING AREA
WHICH WOULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL INTENSITY...BELIEVE MORE SATURATION
WILL OCCUR FROM TOP DOWN THAN MODELS INDICATE. THUS WILL FORECAST
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF I-20
TOMORROW...WITH POPS FOR MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF SNOW AT 20 PERCENT
AND ACCUMULATIONS AT JUST A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES...THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850MB WILL BE BRINGING WARMER AIR AND RICH GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD IN A HURRY AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC CHARTS SHOW SUBTLE LIFT OCCURRING NEAR 925MB
WHICH WOULD CORRESPOND TO SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BEFORE DAY
BREAK. TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME WOULD BE BELOW FREEZING.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT RAMPS UP. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE THIS OCCURS. MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO QUICK TO
WARM TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AS NORTH WINDS WILL HOLD IN THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING
MUCH IF ANY. HOWEVER WHEN THE PRECIP STARTS IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND BELIEVE THAT TEMPS WILL TRY TO WARM
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
SO IT MAY START AS LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN BUT SHOULD TRANSITION
TO REGULAR DRIZZLE OR RAIN DURING THE EVENT. AFTER A COUPLE OF
DAYS OF VERY COLD SUBFREEZING TEMPS...ROAD SURFACES ARE BELOW
FREEZING AND ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION WOULD STICK ON IMPACT. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION OF ICE AS PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT STILL THIS CAN BE A MAJOR TRAFFIC HAZARD
ESPECIALLY IF PEOPLE ARE NOT AWARE OF ICE ON ROADS. HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ZONES
FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO GET THE WORD OUT ABOUT
THE POTENTIAL TRAVEL ISSUES TOMORROW. THANKS TO WFO EWX/HGX/SHV
FOR THE COORDINATION.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DOWN SLOPE WESTERLY WINDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HAVE SIDED WITH THE FASTER
ECMWF/GFS FORECASTS WITH THIS FRONT...AS IT IS LIKELY TO BE
SHALLOW AND WANT TO SPILL SOUTH DUE TO ITS HIGHER DENSITY.

THE EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST WILL FEATURE INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE SUNDAY FRONT WILL SETTLE IN
OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. AS
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SET UP OVER THE TOP OF THE COLD DOME AND WE
SHOULD SEE CHANCES OF PRECIP STARTING MONDAY AND INCREASING INTO
TUESDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF OUTPUT
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE RATHER TAME.
FURTHERMORE THE GFS/CANADIAN WOULD SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD WINTER MIX
EVENT FOR THE REGION...BUT AGAIN THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS. FOR
NOW WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOME WINTER PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS THE
REGION THAT IS MOST CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TO SEE WINTER PRECIP
AND WITH MODEL AGREEMENT LOW...IT MAKES SENSE TO KEEP THE WINTER
MIX UP THERE AND SPREAD IT SOUTH SHOULD THE ECMWF COME IN LINE
WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 21 34 29 57 34 / 10 20 10 0 0
WACO, TX 23 35 29 64 38 / 20 20 10 0 0
PARIS, TX 21 33 25 53 33 / 10 20 20 0 0
DENTON, TX 19 33 26 56 30 / 10 20 10 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 21 33 26 55 31 / 10 20 10 0 0
DALLAS, TX 22 34 30 57 37 / 10 20 10 0 0
TERRELL, TX 23 34 27 57 34 / 10 20 10 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 24 34 30 60 38 / 10 30 10 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 24 35 29 65 38 / 20 30 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 19 37 26 60 31 / 10 20 10 0 0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
TXZ156>160-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ122-
135-146>148-161-162.