SIO: FOBANE - Tropical Cyclone (14S)

[Alyono]

Not sure where to post this, but there is an unnamed cyclone in the SIO now. ASCAT shows a clear 45 KT cyclone near 14S, 71E.

JT only has a TCFA out. ASCAT showed this was a cyclone 12 hours ago. Is ASCAT suddenly unreliable?

[stormkite]

Not sure where to post this, but there is an unnamed cyclone in the SIO now. ASCAT shows a clear 45 KT cyclone near 14S, 71E.

JT only has a TCFA out. ASCAT showed this was a cyclone 12 hours ago. Is ASCAT suddenly unreliable?

[mrbagyo]

[stormkite]

[euro6208]

WTXS32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 14.8S 70.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 70.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.4S 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.8S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.3S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.0S 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 22.3S 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 25.1S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 27.2S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 70.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 814 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONG DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING, A
070309Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW BANDING. A
070436Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT
RESTRICTED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO
MODERATE LEVELS (15 TO 20 KNOTS) BUT IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED
ON THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, LEADING TO SLOW SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT, BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NEAR
TERM AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. AFTER TAU
36, TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE
STR BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT,
ALLOWING THE INTENSITY TO PEAK AT 60 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DUE TO A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEAR TERM AND A SLIGHT SPREAD AMONG
AVAILABLE MODEL TRACKERS IN THE EARLY TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S
(EDILSON) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Extratropical94]

Title should be changed, this is Tropical Depression 11 or Tropical Cyclone 14S.

[stormkite]

FOBANE 140208 0000 15.6S 69.0E SHEM 40 993

[euro6208]

WTXS32 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOBANE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 29.7S 63.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.7S 63.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 30.1S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.5S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 29.8S 63.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FOBANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 702 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ST. DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINED INTACT AND
WELL-DEFINED BUT HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AS THE REMNANT CONVECTION
DECREASED. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE 20-KNOT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
OFFSETTING THE VWS AND HELPING SUSTAIN THE LINGERING CONVECTION. TC
14S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 24, MOSTLY
DUE TO COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT LEAST UP TO TAU 24, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z. //
NNNN

[euro6208]