Texas Winter 2013-2014

[SouthernMet]

fwiw the cold front is about 6 hours ahead of schedule.
but that's usually common that models underestimate the timing of them as we all know.

San Angelo nws - light ice accumulations are possible tonight from freezing drizzle.

[TheProfessor]

Where is the cold front at?

[Portastorm]

Where is the cold front at?

Please check your PMs.

[Wntrwthrguy]

Can someone explain the setup for the 1985 snow storm that dropped upwards of 15 inches near San Antonio? Trying to understand all of the pieces that had to come together for such a rare event.

[Portastorm]

Can someone explain the setup for the 1985 snow storm that dropped upwards of 15 inches near San Antonio? Trying to understand all of the pieces that had to come together for such a rare event.

Go to the link below and look at the very bottom. NWS has an event summary of what happened and why.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx/?n=postwx.htm

[Wntrwthrguy]

Can someone explain the setup for the 1985 snow storm that dropped upwards of 15 inches near San Antonio? Trying to understand all of the pieces that had to come together for such a rare event.

Go to the link below and look at the very bottom. NWS has an event summary of what happened and why.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx/?n=postwx.htm

Thanks Porta! Sounds like a once in a lifetime event. Wish we could be lucky enough to get that setup again.

[Ntxw]

Can someone explain the setup for the 1985 snow storm that dropped upwards of 15 inches near San Antonio? Trying to understand all of the pieces that had to come together for such a rare event.

Go to the link below and look at the very bottom. NWS has an event summary of what happened and why.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx/?n=postwx.htm

Thanks Porta! Sounds like a once in a lifetime event. Wish we could be lucky enough to get that setup again.

The 1985 set up was not that dissimilar to what happened last month that brought snow and ice to S/SC/SE Texas. -EPO crashed into the +PNA with a strong baja low. Severe -NAO/AO did not allow the storm to go north. The difference was the northern stream phased with the baja low over the southwest vs southeast US, thus streaming copious amounts of moisture up towards Austin/San Antonio in 1985. This January the low was much weaker and was weakening on it's way from northern MX and little to no interaction with the northern stream. Phasing requires perfect timing and many delicate moving parts of the atmosphere to work together, very much a rarity that far south. Houston's 1895 event probably featured a similar set up as are most of the big snowstorms in Texas.

Needed is:
1. Good to strong baja low
2. Strong high pressure setting over the state with CAA
3. Northern stream to dip south behind the baja low kicking out, phasing the two jets

[Wntrwthrguy]

Great to know! Do you have any records on the longest stretch Austin has gone without at least 1 inch of snow? I know we are about to be at 10 years this Friday.

[WeatherDuck]

The board is pretty quiet. The NWS has a 50% chance of precipitation and temperatures in the low to mid 30s for my part of Williamson County, Monday night into Tuesday. Probably nothing will come of it.

[Lagreeneyes03]

I know you warn people about believing the Weather Channel, thought ya'l would get a kick out of this. About 30 minutes ago, This. Just. Happened. LOL

[TheProfessor]

the atmosphere must be very cold for snow to make it through that warm layer.lol

[TexasF6]

WXMAN57 Hacked the Weather Channel's Winter Storm Coverage!!!! #epic #TeamWarmWeather #IstillwantSNOW

[aggiecutter]

There was some discussion on the forum a week or so ago about the Quachita Mountains and their effect on shallow arctic masses downstream. The pic below was taken from the crest of the Talimena Scenic Drive a couple days ago. The drive traverses the crest of the Quachita's from Mena, Arkansas to Talihina, Oklahoma. The drive is located about 100 miles north of Texarkana, with several of the peaks reaching over 2,600'.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Joe Bastardi said the warm pocket is due to the downslope effect of the air riding down the mountain. NNE wind i believe he said is what leads to the largest warm up downstream.

[gpsnowman]

When is the frozen stuff supposed to hit in DFW, if at all?

[SouthernMet]

When is the frozen stuff supposed to hit in DFW, if at all?

Some areas esp northwest of Fort Worth could see freezing drizzle or light freezing rain tonight. But the main event, the best chance for ice accumulations is monday night into tuesday.

[Texashawk]

Wunderground just updated the forecast and it has a 60% chance of snow for Katy on Tuesday. Is that really a thing? I would think this board would be a lot more active, or have we just all become blasé

[aggiecutter]

0Z NAM just came in and has significantly more moisture for east and NE Texas.

[aggiecutter]

0z NAM snowfall forecast. Looks like the winners are extreme NE Texas, Northern Louisiana, and Southern Arkansas.

[TheProfessor]

0z Nam also has .15 to .2 inches of precip from Monday evening to wednesday morning for the metroplex. (right around DFW and southward) for the northern areas of that precip if it turns out to be all ice. it could turn out to be a decent ice storm. ( I say decent because it would be nothing like our December one, I don't actually mean decent in a good way).