My Initial Take...South Carolina

[MWatkins]

I'm growing more convinced...at at least for now...that Florida will probably OK from this system...with a caveat which I'll add in a second.

Once again...I think the UKMET solution has a good grasp on what's taking place. The hurricane is not going to just magically jump north like the GFS...Canadian and ECMRF suggest...but will turn like a big ship. Think of it as the difference between turning Luke's X-Wing fighter in Star Wars...a small ship...with the Enterprise in Start Trek II when they were fighting Khan (a big...slow to react ship). Turning Isabel will be like turning the Enterprise.

With that in mind...my greatest concern now lies on a track that will favor a landfall in South Carolina or extreme northern GA. Of course that could easily change...but that's what I'm thinking right now...but the SC coast isn't all that large and a slight deviation at any time could result in a track to North Carolina or Georgia...but I'd rather be in GA then NC because I think the biggest margin for error is greater to the right than left for this system.

I also DON'T expect it to me more than a category 2 storm at landfall...as it will probably spread out and become a large(er) hurricane but weaken due to some southwesterly shear later on. But I could also be very wrong on that and I don't pretend to have any appriciable skill at forecasting intensity 6 days in advance.

The only possible way Florida could find itself in trouble is if the Enterprise takes longer to turn. The UKMET track is heavily favored by the TPC...but the UKMET is north earlier than the guidance but left later...but still with a smoother turn.

If the present motion continues for another 48 hours and if Isabel is north of 22.5 when it crosses 65W...and if the general UKMET idea verifies...the gradual turn will take place a couple of hundred miles to the west of the current track in the model (closely followed by the TPC/NHC) and that could be bad news for Florida. The synoptic mission is on for tomorrow night...so if Isabel is still moving at 270 tomorrow...then a lot rides on the model runs that start coming out at midnight.

So...if my brain were a model and I ran this scenario through it ten times (or a hundred)...yesterday my results would have been 7 runs north of the SC/GA border and 3 to the south.

Today...it's 8 to the north and 2 to the south.

More later on...in a lot of meetings today.

MW

[JCT777]

Good update, MWatkins. I agree with you that the place I am the most concerned about is South Carolina. Not that FL, GA, NC and even states north of NC are out of the woods. Just that if I had to guess which state has a slightly higher risk of landfall with this storm than any other, I would say SC. Regarding intensity at landfall, I would guess either Category 2 or Category 3. But once again, this is just a guess.

[cycloneye]

Charleston-Hugo-Veteran remember what I posted this morning from UKMET about a landfall at your state at 32.8n-80.5w well there you have it confirmed by MW a very skilled person and he knows what he is talking about.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

cycloneye....I didnt doubt you a bit... I have noticed from MWatkins post that he had to be a professional....Not much small talk.

[cycloneye]

In other words chv prepare with time for the worse but hope that she goes away from that state and from the whole east coast.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

cycloneye...i am glad it is looking good for you right now!

[Agua]

Damned. MW does a fine job of explaining his thinking with his discussions. If you aren't already, you ought to consider teaching Mike.

[Stormcenter]

Mike you have a lot of IFs in your post. I hope you are DEAD WRONG about this East coast strike even though it MAY be only a Cat 2 storm at landfall. I've been through a hurricane (several TSs) and it's NO FUN at all, especially when you have to clean up the mess (downs trees) and deal with no electricity. I would never wish (I'm not saying you are) that even on my worst enemy. I still say it has a SHOT to got out to sea.

[calidoug]

What on earth do you see that would send this out to sea?

It already looks like high pressure is building across Miss, Ala, into Ga, with the broad upper level low off the ga/sc/n fl coast, and lifting out, following the remnants of Henri N.

And the broad southerly flow btw 60-65 W in the water vapor seems to have vanished.

What is supposed to turn this out to sea?

The new model runs will be very interesting.

[Stormcenter]

calidoug,

Well the NHC (read below) feels it NOT a done yet either. Obviously you think (or wish) it is a done deal and it will threaten the Eastern U.S. coast.


From the 5pm NHC discussion.


Given the divergence of the models at 120
hr...it is still too early to speculate which parts...if any...of
eastern coast of the United States may get affected by Isabel.

[MWatkins]

Don't be shocked if the euro comes back to the left some. If it has Izzy off the NC coast under a 1039MB high again...

Well...let's wait to see where it ends up.

MW

[JetMaxx]

IMHO this storm is going to make landfall in the United States....IMO between Daytona Beach, FL and the SC/NC border, with the Georgia coast in the crosshairs....I see very little chance this hurricane will recurve east of Hatteras-- not with a progged high pressure that strong over SE Canada AND the large and intense hurricane's outflow reinforcing the ridge to the north.

My only disagreement with Mike W. is the intensity....while I know a landfalling cat-5 isn't a practical solution along the SE coast (i.e.- Hugo @ 120kts and 934 mb is the record for the SE coast north of Jupiter, FL); I don't believe a large cat-3 or possibly even 4 is out of the question. I cite the October 1898 (938 mb) and 1954's Hazel (938 mb) as examples in addition to Hugo....and neither of those hurricanes was as intense as this one (I FIRMLY believe Isabel was at 150-155 kts and <910 mb 24 hours ago).

Also, never say never when it comes to hurricanes....the middle Gulf coast had never experienced a cat-5 hurricane until Camille in 1969. In fact, the 2nd strongest northern Gulf Coast hurricane of record is only a 125-130 kt cat-4 (1856-LA; and 1915-LA).

I'm personally expecting a strong cat-3 to low cat-4 at landfall (115-120 kts), providing my analysis of a landfall in the NE FL to SC/NC border area verifies.....but as everything involving major hurricanes, that's subject to change.

[Lindaloo]

I agree with MW and Jetmaxx. I hope you guys are wrong, of course. lol.

[lookout]

I'm personally expecting a strong cat-3 to low cat-4 at landfall (115-120 kts), providing my analysis of a landfall in the NE FL to SC/NC border area verifies.....but as everything involving major hurricanes, that's subject to change.

i have to agree with you perry. right now my gut feeling is south carolina with a margin of error that could take it into the northeastern half of the georgia coast or the southwestern corner of the nc coast. i really have a hard time believing the gfs, euro, etc taking this storm so far north. especially considering none have initallized this storms intensity and the fact that this storm is so strong, that it can imo modify its environment enough to go more where it wants it to go compared to conventional wisdom would dictate given the synoptic setup. and given the projected increase in size, such a large storm envelope would probably favor this idea even though some weakening will occur. i do think florida for the most part is out of the woods but the extreme northern coast.

[JetMaxx]

lookout, I'll be totally shocked if Isabel turns as sharply to the NW and NNW north of Hispanola as the GFS is progging....hurricanes this large and intense just don't do that....the turns are more gradual.

Look at maps of the 1938 Long Island express and hurricanes Hazel and Donna....it was recurvature ahead of deep troughs...but a smooth and gradual turn -- not the "stop and turn on a dime" as the GFDL and GFS forecast; why I'm forecasting landfall in GA/SC instead of NC Outer Banks north to New York City.

[TampaFl]

Great insights JetMaxx & MWatkins. Keep up the great work.

Robert