Texas Winter 2013-2014

#7881 Postby **Tammie** » Mon Feb 10, 2014 1:20 pm

Okay. Question. If snow ratios are 10:1 (and I know it can be more or less), is freezing rain ratio 1:1? What about sleet?

#7882 Postby **orangeblood** » Mon Feb 10, 2014 1:22 pm

Tammie wrote:Okay. Question. If snow ratios are 10:1 (and I know it can be more or less), is freezing rain ratio 1:1? What about sleet?

It can vary depending on temp column profile but I bet average is around 3:1

Looking at DFW forecast soundings, pretty thick warm nose around 750mb is present tomorrow morning but is marginal anywhere from 2-3 deg C. If this were to verify, probably a sleet storm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

#7883 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Feb 10, 2014 1:34 pm

Tammie wrote:Okay. Question. If snow ratios are 10:1 (and I know it can be more or less), is freezing rain ratio 1:1? What about sleet?

The freezing rain ratio is highly variable. Factors such as precipitation rate and the surface temperature of the object the rain is freezing to are major variables. A higher precipitation rate would yield a lower freezing rain ratio as far as accumulation on trees or power lines, as much of the rain would fall to the ground, leaving only a little to freeze to elevated surfaces. The colder the structure (trees, power lines) the higher the ratio of freezing rain to accumulation.

In all cases, though, the ratio of precipitation to freezing rain accumulation is going to be less than 1:1. Of course, you also have to allow for the fact that ice takes up more volume than water...

I haven't thought about sleet ratios, but you'd have to take into consideration the tiny spaces between sleet balls on the ground and also the greater volume of ice vs. water. Those two factors would point to a sleet ratio > 1:1 but not by a lot, I'd say.

#7884 Postby **srainhoutx** » Mon Feb 10, 2014 1:44 pm

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1156 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014

...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

.AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE. THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ON MAINLY BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...AND EXPOSED
SURFACES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND SPREAD
TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES. ICE MAY BE SPOTTY ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA AS TEMPERATURES CAN VARY DRASTICALLY BECAUSE OF
TERRAIN.

TXZ171>173-183>192-206-111200-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WW.Y.0005.140211T0600Z-140212T0000Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-COMAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...NEW BRAUNFELS
1156 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 PM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY.

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW FREEZING AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE HILL COUNTRY. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS.

* MAIN IMPACT...A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ICE MAY OCCUR ON
BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...AND EXPOSED SURFACES. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ON AREA ROADS. EXPECT DELAYS AND
EVEN POSSIBLE ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES.

* OTHER IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S AND 40S ON TUESDAY AND WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 20S.

#7885 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Feb 10, 2014 1:49 pm

I'm surprised they included the Austin metro area. I've seen nothing in the models/guidance to suggest our temps will be below freezing.

#7886 Postby **orangeblood** » Mon Feb 10, 2014 1:53 pm

Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

I'm surprised they included the Austin metro area. I've seen nothing in the models/guidance to suggest our temps will be below freezing.

It seems the Atlanta debacle might have scared some of these regional NWS offices

Speaking of Atlanta, they've already cancelled school for Tues/Wed in anticipation of this winter storm

#7887 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Feb 10, 2014 1:59 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

I'm surprised they included the Austin metro area. I've seen nothing in the models/guidance to suggest our temps will be below freezing.

It seems the Atlanta debacle might have scared some of these regional NWS offices

Oh, I understand that. But here's the problem in Austin ... same thing happened last Friday. Forecast included a WWA and all schools, local/state agencies, and some businesses shuttered for the day. Guess what? Nothing happened in the metro area. Forecast was a complete bust! A lot of people complained about what happened Friday. Of course, people complain generally just about anything. :lol:

Here's a little more background from EWX. I'd be curious if some of the Euro or UKMet numbers show the metro area dropping below freezing. The GFS sure doesn't.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1226 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HILL COUNTRY ZONES AND
PORTIONS OF I-35 CORRIDOR FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 6PM TUESDAY.
WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE THREAT WILL BE IN THE MORNING AS
TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 30S...THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINLY ABOUT THE
AFTERNOON WARMUP TO KEEP THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THE TUE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

#7888 Postby **orangeblood** » Mon Feb 10, 2014 2:09 pm

this is why I'm a firm believer in making strict guidelines re: differences between warnings and advisories...if warnings hoisted = schools and most businesses close, advisories = people need to use caution but doesn't mean closings are necessary

SouthernMet · #7889 Postby **SouthernMet** » Mon Feb 10, 2014 2:11 pm

wow.. another case of models underestimating cold air advection.. Fort Worth meacham down to 30 & Fort Worth alliance at 29 at 1pm. With 1.5 mile visibilities.

#7890 Postby **ravyrn** » Mon Feb 10, 2014 2:22 pm

Portastorm wrote:Oh, I understand that. But here's the problem in Austin ... same thing happened last Friday. Forecast included a WWA and all schools, local/state agencies, and some businesses shuttered for the day. Guess what? Nothing happened in the metro area. Forecast was a complete bust! A lot of people complained about what happened Friday. Of course, people complain generally just about anything.

I imagine the schools cancelling last Friday had more to do with the ISDs being scared of what happened in Atlanta than what the NWS/promets were telling them in their evening conference call Thurs PM. I don't fault them for hoisting the WWA. I think it'd be better to educate the general public on WWA vs WSW. With the 32F isotherm being so close to all the forecast areas, it's certainly a tough forecast, and I don't fault any NWSFO erring on the side of caution.

#7891 Postby **gpsnowman** » Mon Feb 10, 2014 2:25 pm

Some ice forming on cars at 360 and 183. Icicles hanging from the roof also at my work. Far east Fort Worth area.

#7892 Postby **TheProfessor** » Mon Feb 10, 2014 2:28 pm

light freezing drizzle mixed with snow flurries here.

aggiecutter · #7893 Postby **aggiecutter** » Mon Feb 10, 2014 2:33 pm

Portastorm wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

I'm surprised they included the Austin metro area. I've seen nothing in the models/guidance to suggest our temps will be below freezing.

It seems the Atlanta debacle might have scared some of these regional NWS offices

Oh, I understand that. But here's the problem in Austin ... same thing happened last Friday. Forecast included a WWA and all schools, local/state agencies, and some businesses shuttered for the day. Guess what? Nothing happened in the metro area. Forecast was a complete bust! A lot of people complained about what happened Friday. Of course, people complain generally just about anything. :lol:

Here's a little more background from EWX. I'd be curious if some of the Euro or UKMet numbers show the metro area dropping below freezing. The GFS sure doesn't.

/quote]

Last Monday, the GFS was off by 6 degrees(too high) for Texarkana's high. The result was a moderate ice storm, instead of a cold rain.
Last Friday, the GFS had no appreciable moisture for the Texarkana area, certainly no snow. In reality, Texarkana received a couple inches of snow.
Yesterday, GFS output had Texarkana with a high in the low 50's. The temperature never made it above 40.
The GFS performed quite well earlier in the winter, but is having some issues with the current pattern.

#7894 Postby **SnowintheFalls** » Mon Feb 10, 2014 2:38 pm

SouthernMet wrote:
BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:Is DFW about to experience Drizzlemageddon?

Wichita Falls/Abilene are more likely areas for a freezing-drizzlemaggedden Dallas area is not cold enough.

So how bad is the Wichita Falls area looking to get? We had some slick roads this morning from the freezing drizzle but now I am hearing that more ice will accumulate making matters worse! I didn't want this, I just wanted more of the snow!

aggiecutter · #7895 Postby **aggiecutter** » Mon Feb 10, 2014 2:41 pm

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
100 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE AREA FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>003-010-011-017>020-022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-110300-
/O.CON.KSHV.WW.Y.0007.140211T0600Z-140212T1200Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-
SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...
SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...MANSFIELD...COUSHATTA...
MANY...NATCHITOCHES...WINNFIELD...COLFAX...JENA...IDABEL...
CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...
DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...GILMER...JEFFERSON...TYLER...
LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...RUSK...HENDERSON...CARTHAGE...NACOGDOCHES...
CENTER...LUFKIN...SAN AUGUSTINE...HEMPHILL
100 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

* EVENT...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND WILL
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET AND SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM ENOUGH DURING THE DAY FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE
BACK OVER TO RAIN BUT WILL REMAIN MIXED WITH WINTRY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STORM TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WATCH AREA BEGINNING OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
MORNING AND PERHAPS AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...THEN ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK BELOW FREEZING.

* IMPACT...ABOVE GROUND OBJECTS WILL SEE ICE ACCUMULATIONS BY
TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...TREES
AND POWER LINES AND ANYTHING ABOVE THE RELATIVE GROUND WARMTH.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BARELY WARM MUCH ABOVE FREEZING IF AT
ALL.

texas1836 · #7896 Postby **texas1836** » Mon Feb 10, 2014 2:42 pm

Why am I seeing temps slowly warming for DFW and north tomorrow? I'm seeing 39, 40 degrees as highs. I plead the 5th on where I got the information....

BrokenGlassRepublicn · #7897 Postby **BrokenGlassRepublicn** » Mon Feb 10, 2014 2:44 pm

Current NOAA hourly forecast has Richardson, TX reaching 39 by 5:00 pm. Is there warm air mixing later today that will be causing surface temps to rise, or are they just way off? It is currently 32.

davidiowx · #7898 Postby **davidiowx** » Mon Feb 10, 2014 2:47 pm

For the sake of everyone else south of you (in particular my area), let's hope they are way off and are underestimating the cold air :lol:

#7899 Postby **Ralph's Weather** » Mon Feb 10, 2014 2:47 pm

BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:Current NOAA hourly forecast has Richardson, TX reaching 39 by 5:00 pm. Is there warm air mixing later today that will be causing surface temps to rise, or are they just way off? It is currently 32.

It seems that the models were too warm for North Texas. I do not see any warming at this point.

#7900 Postby **gboudx** » Mon Feb 10, 2014 2:48 pm

BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:Current NOAA hourly forecast has Richardson, TX reaching 39 by 5:00 pm. Is there warm air mixing later today that will be causing surface temps to rise, or are they just way off? It is currently 32.

It's going to bust. My part of Richardson has been at or below freezing since I got to work this morning.

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