Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ntxw]

The coming 6-10 day period will feature almost spring-like weather for those who enjoy the warmth, yes you wxman57. There maybe some transient cold fronts but none will have the staying power.



Then ENS/Cfsv2 all agree ridging from the Aleutians will progress eastward into the Gulf of Alaska, sending the GOA low down the west coast. This energy will likely be the next big weather maker across the country (but still a way's out). Progression of the ridge is likely supported by the recent warming of the NE Pac warm pool as well as possible warming of Nino 3 and 3.4. Higher heights return to the Arctic circle (-AO) but heights over Alaska isn't that all that impressively high. This isn't the ideal set up for very cold air masses as we shift away from the heart of winter, but it does allow lower heights which allows colder air to make it's way after Feb 20th.

I was going to post analogs and data for spring but that may be more appropriate for the spring thread than this thread

[orangeblood]

Didn't most of DFW have winter weather advisory's yesterday evening/last night? I think Denton/Collin/Tarrant all had one up with Dallas joining them @ 9:54pm

No, Tarrant and Dallas advisorys were not up until 10pm, well after the damage had already been done with numerous accidents across the Metroplex. With all due respect to the PWC, Portastorm and I just disagree about the level of accountability that should be placed upon The National Weather Service.

Can you rationalize exactly what they did wrong?

We hear this kind of complaint a lot up here where winter weather is much more common. Did they forecast warm temps with no chance of icing? I mean it happens, and when the freezing line is near it happens a lot. How awful was the forecast? We've had forecasts for 8 inches of snow and ended up with cold rain. Cincinnati tends to be in the screw zone for winter storms since low pressure areas tend to track either too far south or too far north for us to get much snow. I can't tell you how many times the we've had winter storm warnings cancelled because a low pressure system move 50 miles north of where it was forecast and we got rain instead of snow. The outcry is huge, but they tend to over forecast these events due the even greater number of people who scream if they aren't properly warned of winter weather.

Low pressure tracks are problem enough, but in this case you are talking about a freezing line, which is even more difficult to predict IMO. So, what would you do? Would you have issued advisories to all areas even though some of them might not freeze? It seems as if you are saying they knew this was going to happen, or was happening, and purposely did not issue any warnings?

This was the discussion at 10:51AM Monday. Time sensitive link, though you can scroll through the versions to find this once the next discussion is issued. Apologies if this is the wrong event.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FWD&product=AFD&format=CI&version=10&glossary=1

To start off they underestimated the cold advection starting early Monday morning....had forecasted afternoon highs in the mid to upper 30's and most places never got above freezing with temps actually falling throughout the day. Then beginning late morning on Monday, the HRRR and RAP models began showing moderate freezing drizzle in the DFW Metroplex beginning around 4-5 pm. Well with temps below freezing most of the day and not forecast to rise along with short range guidance showing a potentially dangerous freezing drizzle event (a lot of times these are the most dangerous winter weather situations because of their inconspicuous nature)...to me, would set off a red flag....why start the advisory at Midnight and not 4 pm to cover the very real possibility of freezing drizzle blanketing the area ? Temps were clearly staying below freezing in areas that hadn't had advisories kick in yet, Did they just ignore a vital short range tool they had at their disposal ? What does a few hours difference make, well quite a lot considering its a time of day when people are heading home from work or going out for the evening. Radio and TV mets were broadcasting the info. coming out of the NWS regarding the advisory times, stating and a quote "not to worry about your evening plans across the Metroplex, this advisory doesn't start until well after you'll get home." This was the talk in my office today at work that it caught a lot of people off guard, making a dangerous situation even worse, because of the public being unaware of the possibility of deteriorating conditions beginning much earlier. I believe most, when it comes to icing advisory criteria, would rather the NWS err on the side of caution.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Ntxw]

DFW will hit 48th freeze in a few hours, the magic number for top 10.

[JDawg512]

Quite a lot of posts I had to catch up on.

One thing I always keep in mind is how terribly difficult it is to accurately forecast winter events such as these including pinpointing areas that may be most affected. We have seen it multiple times this winter. It takes a lot of guts to make or not make a decision based on whatever information and data you have at that moment. I don't in envy the Mets who are in that position but I am not going to hate on them either if the choice they make ultimately is not the right one.

I hope and I'm sure professionals not only look at the data and model guidance but also monitor what's happening on the area roadways and weather spotter reports so they can use that added dimension in their forecasting. Things change and change in an instant so knowing as soon as possible the latest weather conditions that are actually being reported despite what the data or radars say can make the difference between getting people off the roads in time safely, or having multiple wrecks start to occur.

It is a very difficult job and I thank all our professional meteorologist's because despite it all, they do try their very best to help and inform the public. Sometimes forecasts don't turn out the way they thought. Our planet has a very complex weather pattern that even with the advances we have made in meteorology, we may never fully understand or accurately predict it.

So let us just put our feet in their shoes and go back 30 to 35 hours. Just think about it for a little bit. I'm sure some of us would have done differently. But then think about the consequences by making that choice. As others have so eloquently said on here "Your damned if you do & your damned if you don't. "

[Texas Snowman]

Steve McCauley talking about a potential storm for Texas next weekend.

Hope it happens, that it's wet (and chills us back down), and that it covers a good portion of the state.

[cycloneye]

For those who live in Houston/Galveston area surely it has been one of the coldest winters on record. (7th) The NWS released this data.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Good post by HGX, pretty impressive since we have had many days in the 70's as well this winter. Interesting at the lack of 100 degree days after cold winters. I like it!

[wxman57]

Good post by HGX, pretty impressive since we have had many days in the 70's as well this winter. Interesting at the lack of 100 degree days after cold winters. I like it!

My initial impression was that we've had quite a bit fewer 70F+ days in Houston this winter vs. last so I went back and counted. Last winter, there were 58 days from November 1st through February 11th with a high of 70F or greater. I counted only 38 so far this year. That equates to 52% fewer 70F days this winter vs. last. I didn't count the 80F+ days, but there were way more last winter than this winter.

P.S. Was too curious so I counted the 80F+ days last winter Nov 1 - Feb 11 vs. this winter. IAH has hit 80F only 7 times since November 1st this year. Last year the temperature hit 80F+ 22 times in the same period.

[Tireman4]

Good post by HGX, pretty impressive since we have had many days in the 70's as well this winter. Interesting at the lack of 100 degree days after cold winters. I like it!

Me too and Wxman 57 alluded to this about cooler Summers. He stated this Summer will not be 2011 (Thank goodness... )

[Ntxw]

Daily SOI has been negative for 4 days, lets hope that tanks so that we can get a soaking rain event. Over the years (all seasons) I have accumulated the idea that SOI is the equivalent to wet conditions in Texas (tied to ENSO) as the EPO is to cold.

Signs of a Nino later this year continues to improve

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

DFW will hit 48th freeze in a few hours, the magic number for top 10.

Seems like a total waste. Not a single decent snow event for DFW despite all that cold.

[Ntxw]

DFW will hit 48th freeze in a few hours, the magic number for top 10.

Seems like a total waste. Not a single decent snow event for DFW despite all that cold.

I'm sorry you feel that way. I have seen it all this winter and appreciate that we had a real winter. They have been hard to come by the past decade. Freezes become harder to get as urban heat island continues to grow, so to me it's an impressive feat. But I am an eternal optimist when it comes to weather so just my two cents =).

We have an addiction to snow that sometimes obscure our thinking.

[TheProfessor]

Any chance we see any spring like thunder storms with the spring like weather.

[wxman57]

Any chance we see any spring like thunder storms with the spring like weather.

Certainly not over the next week. Possibly ahead of the cold front the weekend after next.

[ravyrn]

Those of you in areas w/ ice, be careful if you're walking outside and beneath elevated objects such as trees, roofs, powerlines... that ice is melting, and falling! I saw many sheets of ice falling off powerlines and such this morning while I was out running errands. Everything looks beautiful too. All the trees are a very bright white with the sun shining on them. It's also neat to hear the ice melting. It sounds as if its raining in the woods near my place and the sky is clear and the suns out.

[texas1836]

Not much activity going on. Doesn't look encouraging for the rest of the Winter, but a wet snow in early March would sure be nice.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS certainly doesn't indicate any additional winter precip in Texas through the end of the month. Next weekend's cold front (Feb. 22nd) looks more Pacific in nature, though it will probably bring down a little cold air from the Central Plains in its wake. Precip with that front may be in the form of a line of shower/storms in advance of the front. The 500mb flow suggests a gradual transition to spring over the coming weeks.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Daily SOI has been negative for 4 days, lets hope that tanks so that we can get a soaking rain event. Over the years (all seasons) I have accumulated the idea that SOI is the equivalent to wet conditions in Texas (tied to ENSO) as the EPO is to cold.

Signs of a Nino later this year continues to improve

Doing some research with a normal to cooler (from what I remember) summer and El Nino, I remember June of 1995 being very stormy. I can't remember what the winter was like though.

[weatherdude1108]

Daily SOI has been negative for 4 days, lets hope that tanks so that we can get a soaking rain event. Over the years (all seasons) I have accumulated the idea that SOI is the equivalent to wet conditions in Texas (tied to ENSO) as the EPO is to cold.

Signs of a Nino later this year continues to improve

When you say "tanks", does that mean we want to SOI to be negative or positive for soaking rain events? Just confused on the "tanks" slang. Thanks.

[WeatherGuesser]

Only a half page today?

Everybody iced in?