Florida Weather

[cycloneye]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0092
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 121907Z - 122100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT
A TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
ACROSS THE MCD AREA.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE MS VALLEY WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS
THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SFC...A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT
130 STATUTE MILES SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE FL WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED 40
TO 55 KT LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET CO-LOCATED WITH THE SFC LOW. A
SQUALL-LINE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE JET FEATURE AND IS
MOVING TOWARD FL PENINSULA WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S F.
THE LINE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA IN THE 21Z TO
22Z TIMEFRAME. A FORWARD SPEED OF LINE 30 TO 35 KT ALONG WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT IN WRN AND
CNTRL FL THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ON
THE LEADING EDGE ASSOCIATED WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. MORE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL FL WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ALONG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F.
THESE STORMS COULD ALSO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
THE FORM OF WET DOWNBURSTS.

[cycloneye]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 8
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC009-011-015-021-027-043-049-051-053-055-057-06 1-069-071-081-
085-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-111-115-117-119-1 27-130400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0008.140212T2005Z-140213T0400Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BREVARD BROWARD CHARLOTTE
COLLIER DESOTO GLADES
HARDEE HENDRY HERNANDO
HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER
LAKE LEE MANATEE
MARTIN OKEECHOBEE ORANGE
OSCEOLA PALM BEACH PASCO
PINELLAS POLK SARASOTA
SEMINOLE ST. LUCIE SUMTER
VOLUSIA
$$

[cycloneye]

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
424 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014

FLC086-130400-
/O.EXA.KMFL.SV.A.0008.000000T0000Z-140213T0400Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 8 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING

IN FLORIDA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTY

IN SOUTH FLORIDA

MIAMI-DADE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MIAMI.

THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

[AdamFirst]

Scary drive home after dark here. Near zero visibility. Traffic lights out. Ponding on the roadways. And the main squall hasn't even gotten here yet.

[northjaxpro]

NWS has issued a freeze Watch in effect for early tomorrow morning for much of interior North Florida. Cold air advection today as northwest winds blowing in on the backside of the intensifying winter storm currently hugging the Mid-Atlantic coast and moving away.

Wrap around cloudiness will persist for much of the day and clearing will not take place until late today or tonight as High Pressure builds into the region. Temperature currently 40.4 degrees. Clouds and brisk northwest winds are bringing wind chill temps in the lower 30s currently. We will be lucky if it makes it to 50 degrees for max temps today. We only get there if clearing occurs earlier than expected.

Temps expected to get to near freezing in the normal, colder interior locations across the northern peninsula. If the winds get light enough or to near calm, scattered frost will likely be around tomorrow and also temps could drop into the upper 20s over in the Big Bend and Suwannee River Valley areas.

[northjaxpro]

Currently 32.3 degrees and scattered frost at my locale early this morning. This is the first freeze this month and only the eighth freeze overall this season.

Today will be a beautiful day with max temps reaching the mid 60s. Another shortwave trough will swing through early tomorrow morning across the Southeast U.S. This will bring another cold front with some scattered showers very early tomorow morning. Cool High Pressure will build in briefly behind this system. This will set the stage of temps being near freezing again on Sunday morning with temps in the lower 30s across the interior locations across North Florida.

Definitely signs of spring will be here this upcoming week. It looks spectacular with a warming trend setting up with temperatures possibly getting into the lower 80s here in Jax by mid-week. Looking at long range models 10 days out, I definitely do not see any freezes on the horizon as we head toward the end of February. PNA continues to stay negative, and the NAO positive, and it also looks that a big warm-up next week will also occur across the Eastern CONUS. I think they definitely deserve to thaw out after the recent winter storms, especially the Carolinas northwad to New England. Also, the warm-up should help to erode the snowpack across many areas across the Eastern U.S., and there may be flooding concerns with the snowmelt by the end of this week.

[NDG]

First half of February came without a freeze for the Orlando area, so far this winter only one official freeze for the city with many parts of the city not even getting a freeze. Glad to see we saw some wet periods this winter unlike the last winter which was much drier.
I really doubt that we will see a freeze from here on out of what is left of this Meteorological Winter so I will start fixing up my garden, not that it is damaged from winter wx, I am just trimming back some of the plants and planting some new ones. I had to start taking my allergy meds, for the past week if not longer there has been a nice layer of green pollen on the cars every morning.

[Sanibel]

A little cool last night. Pulling out of a cool snap and back to 80 tomorrow.

[CronkPSU]

seen all sorts of variations on the forecast for Central Florida this weekend, we going to get the Daytona 500 in on Sunday?

[HURRICANELONNY]

Sure hope it doesn't rain on the 500. Was reading miami discussion of front stalling in central Fl. Hope it washes out.

[northjaxpro]

Right now, there is a pretty good chance of rain in Daytona on Sunday with a stationary front in the vicinity.

[northjaxpro]

Also, it looks as if the PNA will become positive again by the end of the month and a pattern we saw during January will return by the first of March. A pronounced blocking pattern is setting up across Alaska leading into late next week. It appears a very significant cold pattern will return to the Eastern CONUS by the end of next week. It remains to be seen how cold it will get at least in North Florida by March 1 in terms of freezing temps. I think the central and southern portions of the state will get cooler by next weekend (2-28-3/2), but no freeze threat I don't believe in those areas based on what I am seeing at this time. But make no mistake, if the models are correct, this warm spell we have been enjoying lately in the Jax area will come to a halt temporarily as we start March.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Yep I see they have a 60-80% chance sunday. Not good. Also where can you find the latest PNA/NAO/AO forecasts. Evertime I look. I never see what others are talking about.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Well at least will get back to normal mid-week.

Long term (monday night-friday)... the latest extended guidance remains in decent agreement through the period and shows a weak frontal boundary shifting south into the area and diminishing Monday. This boundary combined with plenty of low-level moisture and weak impulses aloft within the westerly flow will keep scattered showers and storms in the forecast...especially through the afternoon/evening period Monday. Temperatures will remain above average through the first half of the week...then back toward normal in the wake of a stronger cold front that is projected to approach and move through the local area sometime between Wednesday and Thursday.

[cycloneye]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 245 PM EST.

* AT 217 PM EST... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LAKE GEORGE... OR 8 MILES EAST OF SALT SPRINGS... MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SEVILLE AND BAKERSTOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR... IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET. KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

&&

[AdamFirst]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
312 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014

FLC127-232100-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140223T2100Z/
VOLUSIA-
312 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EST FOR
NORTHEAST VOLUSIA COUNTY...

AT 306 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ORMOND BEACH...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DAYTONA
BEACH...HOLLY HILL...DAYTONA BEACH SHORES...DAYTONA INTERNATIONAL
SPEEDWAY.

[Hurricaneman]

With all these tornado warnings popping up they should just finish the Daytona 500 on monday

[cycloneye]

Agree.

[Hurricaneman]

Weather seems to be clearing the track and we may get a prime time race with isolated light showers

[AdamFirst]

This cell is particularly concerning - it is south of Daytona but it has a pronounced rotation and is affecting other locales.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
409 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SCOTTSMOOR...PLAYALINDA BEACH...
MIMS
EAST CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MOUNT PLYMOUTH...
NORTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF APOPKA...
SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WINTER SPRINGS...SANFORD...OVIEDO...
LONGWOOD...LAKE MARY...LAKE JESSUP...GENEVA...CASSELBERRY...
SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...OAK HILL...EDGEWATER...DELTONA...
DEBARY...

* UNTIL 515 PM EST.

* AT 404 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MOUNT
PLYMOUTH...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LONGWOOD...SANFORD AIRPORT...MIDWAY...OSTEEN...MAYTOWN...BETHUNE
BEACH...APOLLO BEACH...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...MERRITT ISLAND
WILDLIFE REFUGE AND KLONDIKE BEACH