ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

ESPI turns positive

After many months being very negative the ESPI has turned to the positive side. Ntxw,is this something important that it flipped to positive or we have to wait for other factors to say there is a true warming trend?

It's still only slightly positive, but a good trend of El Nino possibilities. With the coming warm pool pushing east if ESPI (and eventually SOI) decides to follow it will only increase the chances for one as both the atmosphere and ocean tries to couple. PDO is still weakly negative so not much help there yet.

[cycloneye]

The 30 day SOI is way positive right now. Let's see if a crash occurs soon and goes to negative or it stays positive in the next few months.

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update of 2/10/14 has Nino 3.4 down to -0.8C. The question is if it will stop going down at this point.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

CPC weekly update of 2/10/14 has Nino 3.4 down to -0.8C. The question is if it will stop going down at this point.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

It will, TAO Triton SST's anomalies show it's no longer even -0.5C we will see a big change next week as that underneath warm pool is moving up

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update of 2/10/14 has Nino 3.4 down to -0.8C. The question is if it will stop going down at this point.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

It will, TAO Triton SST's anomalies show it's no longer even -0.5C we will see a big change next week as that underneath warm pool is moving up

SOI appears to be starting the downward trend.

[Kingarabian]

CPC weekly update of 2/10/14 has Nino 3.4 down to -0.8C. The question is if it will stop going down at this point.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

It will, TAO Triton SST's anomalies show it's no longer even -0.5C we will see a big change next week as that underneath warm pool is moving up

SOI appears to be starting the downward trend.

How are the forecasts for the pressures near Tahiti and such?

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest update from the Aussies.

Issued on Tuesday 11 February 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state is neutral, with climate models suggesting neutral conditions will persist at least until the end of the austral autumn. However, some warming of the Pacific is likely in the coming months.

Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will warm through the austral autumn and winter. Some, but not all, models indicate central Pacific Ocean temperatures may approach El Niño levels by early winter. Model outlooks that span autumn tend to have lower skill than outlooks made at other times of the year, hence long-range outlooks should be used cautiously at this point. Neither neutral nor El Niño states can be discounted for the second half of 2014.

In the last fortnight, a westerly wind event over the far western tropical Pacific led to some warming beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean, though surface temperatures remain close to average. The current high values of the SOI are expected to reduce as recent volatile weather near Darwin and Tahiti eases.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is typically too weak to have a significant influence on the Australian climate from December to April.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[cycloneye]

+4C show up in the warm pool that continues to expand eastward slowly.

[cycloneye]

ESPI continues to rise in positive status

More than slightly positive now.

[Kingarabian]

ESPI continues to rise in positive status

More than slightly positive now.

we haven't seen it turn this positive since... 2010? Is that right?

[cycloneye]

ESPI continues to rise in positive status

More than slightly positive now.

we haven't seen it turn this positive since... 2010? Is that right?

2009.

[Kingarabian]

ESPI continues to rise in positive status

More than slightly positive now.

we haven't seen it turn this positive since... 2010? Is that right?

2009.

Sorry I'm having trouble reading that chart. What do the EI and LI stand for?

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian Here is the whole explanation about this.

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/ESPIsummary.html

[Ntxw]

It is very impressive. By the day El Nino prospects are looking better, the warm pool isn't a sure fire for El Nino but looking at past years there is two periods which are precursors to El Nino. Typically late spring we will see warmth emerge from the depths to get those anomalies up to the surface and feedback occurs (warmth leads to westerlies and that then leads to more warmth), then the big deal happens in the fall when we peak around Oct-Dec. Perhaps this might be the catalysts for the initial warmth come that first period.

[Kingarabian]

Thank you Cycloneye!

Can't wait for the Euro to come out. Maybe the models just may get it right this time.

[Ntxw]

What an impressive warm pool below the surface. It spans almost the entire equatorial Pacific east of the Philippines, will we see 5C+ as the 4C anomalies expand?



And a new MJO wave similar that we just saw is now repeating which will favor more westerlies and perhaps more warming in the below the western basin, feedback.

[cycloneye]

And look how the SOI has made a turn to the downside.

[cycloneye]

What an impressive warm pool below the surface. It spans almost the entire equatorial Pacific east of the Philippines, will we see 5C+ as the 4C anomalies expand?

http://i57.tinypic.com/1ik8w4.gif

And a new MJO wave similar that we just saw is now repeating which will favor more westerlies and perhaps more warming in the below the western basin, feedback.

+5C show up at the 14th data of that graphic. (See first post of thread)

[euro6208]

Quick Question

Has 12C ever appeared before seeing that the scale reaches that high?