Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Texas Snowman]

At least cold, drizzly, winter-like weather keeps fire conditions at bay.

What's coming up, not so much.

Fort Worth NWS forecast discussion:

"THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WITH
POSSIBLY LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND FRONT ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
MOISTURE TO BE MINIMAL AND VERY SHALLOW SO MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST. A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
LATE NEXT WEEK AND THAT TROUGH COULD BRING SOME RAIN TO THE
REGION.

FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. ON
SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN AND BECOME BREEZY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL STILL BE LOW RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST AGAIN. ANOTHER DAY TO KEEP AN
EYE ON FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MONDAY BEHIND
THE NEXT FRONT."

[TheProfessor]

Only a half page today?

Everybody iced in?

No, if everybody was iced in there would be pages flooded with pictures and reports.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Good post by HGX, pretty impressive since we have had many days in the 70's as well this winter. Interesting at the lack of 100 degree days after cold winters. I like it!

My initial impression was that we've had quite a bit fewer 70F+ days in Houston this winter vs. last so I went back and counted. Last winter, there were 58 days from November 1st through February 11th with a high of 70F or greater. I counted only 38 so far this year. That equates to 52% fewer 70F days this winter vs. last. I didn't count the 80F+ days, but there were way more last winter than this winter.

P.S. Was too curious so I counted the 80F+ days last winter Nov 1 - Feb 11 vs. this winter. IAH has hit 80F only 7 times since November 1st this year. Last year the temperature hit 80F+ 22 times in the same period.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/70f.gif

Well im not comparing to last summer, whats the average amount of 70 degree days? Last summer was super warm.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

DFW will hit 48th freeze in a few hours, the magic number for top 10.

Seems like a total waste. Not a single decent snow event for DFW despite all that cold.

Ummm ill take your winter all day! The ground is white, thats good enough for me!

[TheProfessor]

DFW will hit 48th freeze in a few hours, the magic number for top 10.

Seems like a total waste. Not a single decent snow event for DFW despite all that cold.

Ummm ill take your winter all day! The ground is white, thats good enough for me!

I kinda of agree with Broken glass. Ever since I have been alive (which hasn't been very long compared to some of you guys on here) North Texas has been hit by at least a decent snow storm (4-6 inches) either every other year or every 2 years. We have now gone 3 straight years with out one! I'm probably spoiled (because some of the years we didn't get big snowstorms I experienced some in Kansas) but I really love snow storms!

[Texas Snowman]

That 1899 stuff wasn't totally farfetched - just not here.

"@BigJoeBastardi: RT @RyanMaue: Today, Fort Wayne Indiana did break the record low of -14°F previously set in 1899 by 1 degree."

[Texas Snowman]

We have now gone 3 straight years with out one! I'm probably spoiled (because some of the years we didn't get big snowstorms I experienced some in Kansas) but I really love snow storms!

Winter isn't over yet. It may seem like it is during the next 7-10 days. But there is still a little bit of time left. I feel confdent that March will deliver some winter weather goods for portions of Texas. It's the pattern over much of the past 12 months - cooler than normal.

[Ntxw]

Daily SOI has been negative for 4 days, lets hope that tanks so that we can get a soaking rain event. Over the years (all seasons) I have accumulated the idea that SOI is the equivalent to wet conditions in Texas (tied to ENSO) as the EPO is to cold.

Signs of a Nino later this year continues to improve

When you say "tanks", does that mean we want to SOI to be negative or positive for soaking rain events? Just confused on the "tanks" slang. Thanks.

Negative SOI is what you are looking for. When the daily's "tank" to me that's -20 or more and usually signals a big, wet storm in about 5-7 days. When the 30 day SOI is negative it means wet conditions likely will persist coming from the tropical Pacific for a few weeks. When the 90 day SOI is negative (around -10) well...El Nino magic.

SOI data can be found here

SOI

Or you can visit the ENSO thread in the tropical threads which I am active that has information on it

[Ntxw]

We have now gone 3 straight years with out one! I'm probably spoiled (because some of the years we didn't get big snowstorms I experienced some in Kansas) but I really love snow storms!

Winter isn't over yet. It may seem like it is during the next 7-10 days. But there is still a little bit of time left. I feel confdent that March will deliver some winter weather goods for portions of Texas. It's the pattern over much of the past 12 months - cooler than normal.

You are on the money sir! March is a funny month. Typically the cycle allows for 2 impact systems, once beginning of the month and one near the equinox. Could they be winter storms or not, I don't know but often in the past these are the two periods that when is over is over but until then anomalous cold and an anomalous storm is always a possibility especially if Nino 3.4 warms and cooler analogs win.

[TheProfessor]

We have now gone 3 straight years with out one! I'm probably spoiled (because some of the years we didn't get big snowstorms I experienced some in Kansas) but I really love snow storms!

Winter isn't over yet. It may seem like it is during the next 7-10 days. But there is still a little bit of time left. I feel confdent that March will deliver some winter weather goods for portions of Texas. It's the pattern over much of the past 12 months - cooler than normal.

You are on the money sir! March is a funny month. Typically the cycle allows for 2 impact systems, once beginning of the month and one near the equinox. Could they be winter storms or not, I don't know but often in the past these are the two periods that when is over is over but until then anomalous cold and an anomalous storm is always a possibility especially if Nino 3.4 warms and cooler analogs win.

I hope March brings some more winter weather. I remember in 2010 we got 3 to 4 inches here and school got canceled, it was the latest snow event that I remember experiencing.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Texans too aren't safe from the FB shares....

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The Super storm was in mid-March, in '93 which had many comparisons to this year. Its impossible to say we could have something similar, but i think we have another big Nor'Easter before this season is over with

[Ntxw]

The Super storm was in mid-March, in '93 which had many comparisons to this year. Its impossible to say we could have something similar, but i think we have another big Nor'Easter before this season is over with

You are correct. The pattern for the March 93 super storm was very similar to the same repeating pattern we had this winter. AO, NAO, PNA were all neutral. The one big index...the EPO was severely negative and was also a neutral year. One doesn't predict a super storm, so no we won't get one but an impacting storm originating in the gulf early to mid March is definitely in the analog books.

[DougNTexas]

I got to Shreveport last night just before they shut down I-20. Stayed at a Hotel and got up early for the surgery. Every thing went very well and they let me go home. this afternoon. I was supposed to stay a day or two in ICU. Dr. came in and said he thought the biopsy was going to be benign. I slept all evening. So far so good. So far no major pain.

[JDawg512]

For me, (and this is going by personal observation) usually once Valentine's Day passes by, the chances of winter precipitation drops significantly, at least in my area. I'm sure there will be a couple of more cold waves including some freezing night's but all in all the pattern will begin to slowly transition into Spring. I wouldn't mind having a cooler than average Spring either. Last year was pretty nice.

I mentioned about some plants the other day that are budding out of the ground. The reason why I brought it up is because I've come to watch growth patterns of certain types of plants over the years due to their clockwork accuracy when seasons begin to change or a major weather pattern has occurred or is about to. These specific plants do not get fooled and react to temporary changes like some plants and trees do. When they start growing, the weather pattern changes. That's why I feel confident that at least here where I am, the coldest part of this year's winter has passed because of a specific native that's beginning to pop out of the ground. It only starts growing once the real extreme cold has passed and it has never failed. Doesn't mean no more freezes, but hard, long lasting freezes are unlikely.

This is just my observation without any model data, just nature data...

[Ntxw]

Are you sure those plants aren't on the clock with sunlight/angle than the weather? It's getting brighter each day significantly during this time. Natural climo says severe cold becomes unlikely after the second week of February so it's not ground breaking to say that every year because it's usually true. I mean I don't even need plants and I can tell you the hottest temperatures will occur in early August and once we pass the first week of Sept 110+ are unlikely

It would be more convincing if they can predict freezes and if a warm or cold spring is to come by averages . It is fascinating you brought that up because much vegetation up here this year are dead, by every definition. The ice storms really ripped them, I wonder if/when they decide to grow out and indeed a below average spring happens with late freezes will do to them.

[weatherdude1108]

For me, (and this is going by personal observation) usually once Valentine's Day passes by, the chances of winter precipitation drops significantly, at least in my area. I'm sure there will be a couple of more cold waves including some freezing night's but all in all the pattern will begin to slowly transition into Spring. I wouldn't mind having a cooler than average Spring either. Last year was pretty nice.

I mentioned about some plants the other day that are budding out of the ground. The reason why I brought it up is because I've come to watch growth patterns of certain types of plants over the years due to their clockwork accuracy when seasons begin to change or a major weather pattern has occurred or is about to. These specific plants do not get fooled and react to temporary changes like some plants and trees do. When they start growing, the weather pattern changes. That's why I feel confident that at least here where I am, the coldest part of this year's winter has passed because of a specific native that's beginning to pop out of the ground. It only starts growing once the real extreme cold has passed and it has never failed. Doesn't mean no more freezes, but hard, long lasting freezes are unlikely.

This is just my observation without any model data, just nature data...

Interesting about the plants! I noticed the Pink Indigo potted plant I brought into the garage several weeks ago has sprouted new leaves. The garage has no windows! It's like they have this internal circadian rhythm and can sense a change in atmospheric pressure, possibly on a larger scale(?), and react accordingly. Fascinating!

[weatherdude1108]

Daily SOI has been negative for 4 days, lets hope that tanks so that we can get a soaking rain event. Over the years (all seasons) I have accumulated the idea that SOI is the equivalent to wet conditions in Texas (tied to ENSO) as the EPO is to cold.

Signs of a Nino later this year continues to improve

When you say "tanks", does that mean we want to SOI to be negative or positive for soaking rain events? Just confused on the "tanks" slang. Thanks.

Negative SOI is what you are looking for. When the daily's "tank" to me that's -20 or more and usually signals a big, wet storm in about 5-7 days. When the 30 day SOI is negative it means wet conditions likely will persist coming from the tropical Pacific for a few weeks. When the 90 day SOI is negative (around -10) well...El Nino magic.

SOI data can be found here

SOI

Or you can visit the ENSO thread in the tropical threads which I am active that has information on it

Thanks Ntxw!

[Ntxw]

Breaking News:

For the first time this winter, though a bit too late to do any good, NOAA has finally decided to acknowledge what we all knew. They have revised their February outlook in bold letters on their page, the first of it's kind this season.





You know what this means...extreme heat the second half of the month

[Ntxw]

Asketh and GFS giveth. Many wanted warmth well it's coming! 80s, 60s for lows. Almost A/C weather and bone dry, sounds like summer!