Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Texas Snowman]

As soon as I saw Ntxw's post yesterday, I knew this was coming! Like clockwork, LOL!

[Ntxw]

Ah yes the seesaw, got to love it. One month anniversary of winter cancels this week from last month, any takers? Here's a thought mid to end of January western Canada was 20-40F above normal! If the EPO wants cold it will find cold

[Tireman4]

Here we go. The cold mongerers versus the heat mongerers. Woo Hoo. Let the battle begin!!

[TheProfessor]

Some of the nights next week look absolutely dreadful. My point forecast has my low for Tuesday at 58 degrees. That's way to hot for this time of year.

[Tireman4]

To whet the snow lovers delight in Houston and to post a negative -WSI (for Wxman57). Today marks the anniversary of the BIG one in Houston. That is right, the infamous Valentine's Day Snowstorm in Houston.

http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/6964 ... ow1895.jpg

[TheProfessor]

its also the anniversary of the 2004 snow event that gave most the metroplex 3 inches of snow, and putdown 4+ inches in parts of wise and all of Denton and Collin counties.

[texas1836]

Interesting about the plants! I noticed the Pink Indigo potted plant I brought into the garage several weeks ago has sprouted new leaves. The garage has no windows! It's like they have this internal circadian rhythm and can sense a change in atmospheric pressure, possibly on a larger scale(?), and react accordingly. Fascinating!

Yes I find it fascinating as well. I have spent the last 6 years watching and recording which plants react during seasonal or pattern changes. Filtering out species that get "fooled" and watching the ones that consistently grow indicating a change in weather.

I'm going to continue to record my observations for several more years.


What I wish now is some consistent rainfall... looking for rain clouds..

A lot of it has to do with soil temperatures, along with day light hours and warmer air.

[wxman57]

It's ++WSI all the way for the next week. Long-range GFS drops our lows into the lower 40s for next weekend's big cold front, but temps should quickly rebound. I think I'll get out and mow my lawn this evening to celebrate the arrival of spring. Sure, the grass isn't growing yet, but the weeds are getting tall.

[Tireman4]

It's ++WSI all the way for the next week. Long-range GFS drops our lows into the lower 40s for next weekend's big cold front, but temps should quickly rebound. I think I'll get out and mow my lawn this evening to celebrate the arrival of spring. Sure, the grass isn't growing yet, but the weeds are getting tall.

Yeah, the clovers are starting to get big. I guess I have to mow too. You might want to use the propane heater (the portable one) while you mow. Ha ha ha.

[Portastorm]

It's ++WSI all the way for the next week. Long-range GFS drops our lows into the lower 40s for next weekend's big cold front, but temps should quickly rebound. I think I'll get out and mow my lawn this evening to celebrate the arrival of spring. Sure, the grass isn't growing yet, but the weeds are getting tall.

Indeed ... the weather maps for the next week look like you drew them up. Actually, maybe not. You'd probably sprinkle some 90s into Texas for good measure.

[wxman57]

Nice weather on the 12Z GFS. Have to endure 2 more cold nights and one more cold day (tomorrow). Might not be so lucky next week, as temps may dip down near 40 for lows and highs around 55-65.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Dang Heat miser we were just joking with you man! It's already 80 here in Austin. IM MELTING!!!!!!!

[BigB0882]

You know, now that I have a new puppy that needs to go outside every 10 minutes, I really have developed an appreciation for warmer weather. I still do NOT look forward to anything above 80 but I would be fine in the 70s for a LONG time and no more cold for the winter.

[texas1836]

I have an app I use on my cell "GFS Model". According to it, there's possibly some cold rain February 25th - 28th. Don't know how reliable it is.

[wxman57]

Speaking of apps, if any of you likes to look at model data, then the best app I've found is "WeatherGeek Pro" (iTunes & Android):

https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/weather ... 71494?mt=8

I don't use it on my iPhone, as my eyes are too old for that. It works great on my iPad. Much easier than going to NCEP's website.

It appears that cold front has reached Dallas and should reach Austin pretty soon. The cooler air won't last too long, though.

[hriverajr]

89 high so far today at my home. Yuck

[gboudx]

67 sure feels warm when we've been used to temps in the 20s, 30s and 40s for so long. I actually broke a sweat walking to my car.

[Portastorm]

Don't despair my fellow cold mongerers, today's 8-14 day forecast from the Climate Prediction Center says that wxman57's little late-winter "holiday" will end abruptly!


8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 22 - 28 2014

TODAY'S WEEK-2 OUTLOOK FEATURES SOME NOTABLE CHANGES IN SOME PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY. NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WEST COAST AND PARTS OF THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST.
ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG SURFACE SYSTEM
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH SOLUTION ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH AN EXPECTED EASTWARD
SHIFT FROM YESTERDAY. WHEN EXAMINING THE DAILY PROGRESSION OF ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECASTS, THE AMPLITUDE OF THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN STANDS OUT AS
EXCEPTIONAL. GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGES NEAR THE WEST COAST
THIS WINTER SEASON, THIS SOLUTION SEEMS PARTICULARLY REASONABLE.

RIDGING NEAR THE WEST COAST FAVORS BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CONUS, A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT PATTERN. WITH RIDGING
FORECAST OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE MEAN TROUGH FORECAST NEAR 90W, ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.

THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OF TROPICAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO AGAIN SHIFT
TOWARD A REGIME THAT TELECONNECTS WITH ANOMALOUS RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST
DURING WEEK-2 AND BEYOND.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EXPECTED PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

FORECASTER: STEPHEN BAXTER

[wxman57]

Yep, Porta's right. 12z Euro has temps way down into the mid to upper 30s in Dallas-Ft. Worth by next Monday behind that Arctic blast. GFS is similar. Arctic air just isn't what it used to be a week or two ago. I don't think Ryan Maue will mind me posting this piece of his 240hr total accumulated snowfall for the Gulf Coast. The scale on the right will help in determining exact snowfall amounts over the next 10 days at your individual locations across Texas or Louisiana.

[Stormcenter]

It's going to get cold again. IMO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
258 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2014

LOOKING FAR OUT PAST THIS FCAST CYCLE...NEXT WEEKEND BRINGS A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT. WE WILL BE LOOKING AT THIS SYSTEM A LOT HARDER AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.