ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

That big warm pool in the Pacific subsurface continues to expand eastward and now has almost reached the 140W longitude. (Nino 3.4 is from 120W to 170W)

[cycloneye]

The folks at NHC are taking notice about the big warm pool.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 5 min
Very impressive oceanic Kelvin wave heading eastward-- could cause lots of EPac warming in a few weeks

[cycloneye]

Below is the Febuary 1997 subsurface graphic when in that year a very strong El Nino formed.

[Ntxw]

Below is the Febuary 1997 subsurface graphic when in that year a very strong El Nino formed.

This subsurface warm pool is comparable for this time of year. It's the best looking sub-surface warmth riding up the thermocline since 2009. As you mentioned 5C+ is showing up!



Even more amazing is the MJO/Oceanic kelvin wave coupled westerlies will be building more warmth in the west! What this likely means is once this pool upwells, another will likely follow behind.



Things can still turn but this will be hard to break due to it's size and depth, I think it's safe to say there will be no La Nina (less than 10% chance) in 2014. If the warmth continues through the equinox (a month/month and half) I would favor an El Nino over neutral slightly.

[cycloneye]

SOI is also crashing.

[cycloneye]

PDO turns positive at +30

This is a significant development because the last time it was positive was in April 2010. The three things occurring that are increasing the chance to have El Nino by Summer are the now positive PDO,SOI going down and that large warm pool in the subsurface.

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[euro6208]

June- July- August...

Strong El nino.

If verify, the pacific is in for a huge season.

[Kingarabian]

PDO turns positive at +30

This is a significant development because the last time it was positive was in April 2010. The three things occurring that are increasing the chance to have El Nino by Summer are the now positive PDO,SOI going down and that large warm pool in the subsurface.

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

The ESPI as well.

This is very fun to watch.

Ntxw, can a new Kelvin Wave bring an even warmer pool?

[Ntxw]

I would worry about how warm it is, size and duration matters. Only the 0.5-2c actually makes it to the surface but certainly helps. New kelvin wave just builds more warmth to sustain enso. What this first pool may do is create a feedback that allows for more future warmth to further increase a nino's chances. Still a very long way to go as the anomalies have yet to reach the surface.

[Kingarabian]

In a study published in Monday's Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
, researchers stated there’s a 75 percent chance for an El Niño, and that the event could push the global temperature to its highest level on record by next year, exceeding the previous record of 1998, set during an El Niño year.

KPBS.org

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,I know is still early to say how extensive in the ENSO area El Nino may be (If it develops) but my question is what kind of El Nino would be,Modoki or the traditional one?

[JDawg512]

Oh please please please let a strong El Nino develops, We need the Texas Highland Lakes chain to fill up.

[cycloneye]

The SOI crash continues in a fast way in only a few days as on Febuary 8 it was at +14.5 and on Febuary 15 is at +6.6.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw,I know is still early to say how extensive in the ENSO area El Nino may be (If it develops) but my question is what kind of El Nino would be,Modoki or the traditional one?

I really don't know at this time. If there is a true +PDO and that gulf of Alaska warm water anomalies spreads down the west coast of North America then odds will favor a strong east based Nino. If we get a weaker +PDO signal then it may be the weaker central Pacific Nino (modoki). I wouldn't favor modoki at this time if there is a Nino since they tend to occur more during the decadal +PDO regime.

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest saved loop of the subsurface that shows how the warm pool continues to expand eastward.Still some blue trying to fight but the yellow,orange and even black are winning.

[ninel conde]

SOI back to positive. +7.5 today.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

SOI back to positive. +7.5 today.

Actually, it was previously +7.6 which means today's SOI is lower.

[hurricanes1234]

This is very interesting. If this verifies, it will be my first year tracking hurricanes in an El Niño. I only started in 2011, and since then there have been no true El Niño phenomena, just El Niño conditions for some parts of 2012.

[euro6208]

Very impressive warming on that loop!

[Ntxw]

Back to a little reality. Lets not go too overboard with El Nino talk, there isn't an El Nino at this time in fact the surface SST's look more like neutral nina if anything else. But the stage is being set and things are changing and the possibility continues to grow over just dominant neutral. IF there were to be an El Nino the earliest it could be declared is mid to late summer and that's if we were talking about a strong one.