Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
941 PM AST SUN FEB 16 2014

.UPDATE...STRONG CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
REINFORCED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO ENTER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATE
EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE BY TUESDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AGAIN TIGHTEN.
PRESENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUING
TO SLOWLY ERODE AS A BROAD POLAR TROUGH SWEEPS EASTWARDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HELP INDUCE A HIGH ZONAL/WESTERLY
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND MAINTAIN FAIRLY
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AND RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS BEING TRANSPORTED WESTWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
AND QUICKLY APPROACHING THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THIS CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO REACH PARTS OF THE ISLANDS
AND THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LATEST TJSJ 17/00Z SOUNDING AS WELL AS BLENDED TPW SUGGESTS
PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS STILL AROUND 1.10 INCHES WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW 800 MILLIBARS. THEREFORE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON MONDAY EXCEPT FOR THE BRIEF PERIODS OF EARLY
MORNING PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WHICH WILL AFFECT MAINLY PARTS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE
WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST MON FEB 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TRADES
WILL STRENGTHEN MID WEEK AS STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH TIGHTENS
THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ANOTHER HIGH EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A MORNING OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
LOCAL AREA...A SLOT OF DRY AIR MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SLOT OF DRY AIR HAS LIMITED THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS.
ONE OF THESE PATCHES WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION.

BROAD TROUGH PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION...TRADES
WILL STRENGTHEN MID WEEK AS STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH TIGHTENS
THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ANOTHER HIGH EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY. THESE FACTOR WILL MAINTAIN PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER IN THE LONG TERM AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...HI PRESSURE E CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL DRIVE ISOLD TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS. BRIEF
MVFR PSBL BTWN 18/13Z AND 1817Z AT TNCM AND TKPK DUE TO CIGS AND
-SHRA AND AT TJMZ 17-18/16-22Z AT TJMZ. LLVL WINDS E 10-20 KT UP TO
18 KFT. OCNL MTN OBSCURATIONS WRN PR AFT 18/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...NEW PULSES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN SEAS RUNNING BETWEEN 6-7 FEET NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 73 83 / 20 40 40 40
STT 73 84 74 85 / 20 20 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
906 PM AST MON FEB 17 2014

.UPDATE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGEST A SURGE OF MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT
ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT SHOW A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE
NEAR 20N60W MOVING WSW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC THIS EVENING.
THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH...MOISTURE WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAYTIME...THE BRISK
TRADE WINDS WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH
NIGHT ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED
TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EVENING.

[Gustywind]

Hi everybody, small tremor here in Guadeloupe. An earthquake has occured at 530 AM. Our friends of Martinica fell it too. No damages or report of death apparently. We will have more on this one but nothing bad at all...

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru parts of PR today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 AM AST TUE FEB 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRI. FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD SAT THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK. STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT WED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE
NEXT 24 HRS AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE-TROUGH
APPROACHING 70W THIS MORNING. H85-H7 LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
SUFFICIENTLY THAT I WOULDN`T RULE OUT TSTMS OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS.

S/W TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA EARLY WED WITH H25 JET STREAK
SHIFTING SOUTH OF PR LEADING TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHARP
DRYING THROUGH THE DAY WED. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN AS LOCAL PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG 1034 MB BERMUDA-AZORES
HIGH.

MOISTURE RECOVERS AGAIN QUICKLY ON THU AS ADDITIONAL SRN STREAM
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL ALSO ENHANCE
PRECIP IN UPSLOPE/WINDWARD AREAS.

FLAT RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SAT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AND TRADES
DIMINISH LEADING TO A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY OF
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
COMPLETELY INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...HI PRESSURE E CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL DRIVE ISOLD TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS...SOME
VCSH AND -SHRA OVRNGHT. BRIEF MVFR PSBL BTWN 18/13Z AND 18/17Z AT
TNCM AND TKPK DUE TO CIGS AND -SHRA...AND AT TJMZ 18/16-22Z. LLVL
WINDS E 10-20 KT UP TO 18 KFT. OCNL MTN OBSCURATIONS WRN PR AFT
18/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT WED-FRI GENERATING ROUGH SEAS
5-7 FT XCPT 8 FT AMZ710. NW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER
TODAY. WILL ISSUE MORE SCA`S FOR ANEGADA AND MONA PASSAGES AND
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WHILE OVERALL AN IMPROVEMENT IN FIRE WX CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK...WED POSES A RISK OF
EXPERIENCING RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THE SOUTH COAST. WINDS
STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SO THAN LAST SAT AND THIS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT SINCE LAST WEEK. NOW MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE AREA QUICKLY EARLY WED LEADING TO
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHARP DRYING. FOR NOW WILL HANDLE THIS
POSSIBLE RED FLAG EVENT WITH A SHORT-FUSED RFW IF NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 77 83 77 / 20 50 50 30
STT 85 77 84 76 / 20 50 50 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
205 PM AST TUE FEB 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD SATURDAY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTED THE LOCAL
REGION THIS MORNING. LATER...MOST ACTIVITY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA...WITH ONLY SOME SHOWERS OBSERVED NEAR DORADO AND
VEGA ALTA. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES SHOWED A SLOT OF DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. THIS SLOT OF DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL APPROACH THE
LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS THIS PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH WILL DESTABILIZES SOMEWHAT
THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE. AFTERWARD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A FRESH
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA BUT IN GENERAL PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. SOME VCSH AND -SHRA ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING PRODUCING
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST AND
TJSJ. LLVL WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...BOUY OBSERVATIONS WERE SHOWING BETWEEN 7-8 FEET IN THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND AROUND 5 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS. MODELS TREND CONTINUE TO INDICATED HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL
AFFECT MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 83 77 84 / 50 50 30 30
STT 77 84 76 85 / 50 50 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
921 PM AST TUE FEB 18 2014

.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS CIMMS PWAT ANALYSIS INDICATE
AN INDUCED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. 00Z
TJSJ RAOB SHOWED A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF 70-75 KT AT 40K-45K FT.
THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SUBTROPICAL JET COMBINED WITH THE INDUCED
TROUGH HAVE PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE USVI...CULEBRA...VIEQUES... EASTERN AND NORTHERN PR
AND THE LOCAL WATERS. OPS MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS TROUGH WILL
MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
A SHARP DRYING DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER BAND
OF MOISTURE WILL REACH THE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS...CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS AND THE REGIONAL WATERS AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS
IN THE ISLAND VICINITY. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE
THIS EVENING.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly dry weather is expected later today as the trough moves away from PR.Fire danger increases today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 AM AST WED FEB 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED
TO BUILD FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH
WILL SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH FRI.



.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX
WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH AND EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING QUICKLY LATER
TODAY WITH VERY SHARP DRYING. PW VALUES ARE FCST TO TUMBLE FROM
1.7 INCHES THIS MORNING TO LESS THAN AN INCH BY DAYS END. THIS ALL
LOOKS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ALREADY OVER
SAINT JOHN AND VERY LOW PW VALUES SEEN ON NESDIS BLENDED TPW AND
CIRA`S LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS. VERY LARGE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS EXCEEDING 10C ARE INDICATED AT 850 MB AND 30C AT 800
MB FOR THIS AFTERNOON. REALLY NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING AFTER 15Z
TODAY. THINGS STAY MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THU UNDER SHORTWAVE-RIDGE
ALOFT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA THU
NIGHT WITH MOISTURE INCREASING RAPIDLY THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH
SHOWERS RETURNING. FLAT RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH SOME DRYING. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THIS
RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY
INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BUT DO EXPECT THINGS TO DRY OUT GRADUALLY.

&&

.AVIATION...SFC TROF MOVG W ACROSS THE RGN BRINGING ISOLD-SCT
-SHRA/VCSH ACROSS THE FLYING AREA TIL AT LEAST 19/10Z. SOME MTN TOP
OBSCR PSBL OVER ERN PR. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES BUT
EXPECT PRDS OF PASSING SHRA OVR/VCNTY TJSJ... TJBQ...TIST AND
TISX...AS WELL AS OVR TNCM AND TKPN TIL 19/10Z. VFR AND MUCH DRIER
CONDS ACROSS FLYING AREA BY 19/15Z. LATEST TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING
SHOWED ENE WNDS BLO FL150 AT 15-25 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...E WINDS NEAR 20 KT WILL GENERATE ROUGH SEAS 6-8 FT
OFFSHORE WATERS AND 5-7 FT NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH SAT AS
AS BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND PRES GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY AND THU
DUE TO STRONG WINDS...VERY DRY AIR AND EVEN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. MORNING CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT QUICKLY LATER
THIS MORNING WITH VERY SHARP DRYING. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE E OR ESE AT NEARLY 20 MPH WITH FREQ GUSTS TO 30 MPH. MIN_RH
WILL BE DOWN IN THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT AND 10-HR FUEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE 7 TO 8 PERCENT. WITH THESE CONDITIONS FIRE CONTAINMENT
WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH
COAST TODAY. REFER TO RFW MESSAGE AND FIRE WX PLANNING FCST FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 76 84 76 / 40 20 20 20
STT 84 76 85 77 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Red Flag Warning



URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 AM AST WED FEB 19 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN
AND MONA ISLAND. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING
TO NEAR 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 MPH. IN ADDITION...VERY DRY
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING RESULTING IN VERY
LOW HUMIDITIES. ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY.


PRZ014-191615-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FW.W.0001.140219T1500Z-140219T2100Z/
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FW.A.0002.140220T1500Z-140220T2100Z/
SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN AND MONA ISLAND-
401 AM AST WED FEB 19 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM AST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR STRONG WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 014...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR STRONG WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 014...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM AST
THIS EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN AND MONA ISLAND (FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 014).

* 20-FOOT WINDS: EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

* KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI): 680.

* 10-HR FUEL MOISTURE: 7 TO 8 PERCENT.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY: 35 TO 40 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CARE WITH RESPECT
TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT COULD CAUSE WILDFIRES. AVOID ANY
EQUIPMENT THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS NEAR DRY GRASS OR BRUSH. DO NOT
TOSS CIGARETTES ON THE GROUND. REPORT NEW WILDFIRES QUICKLY TO
THE NEAREST FIRE DEPARTMENT OR LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICE. OUTDOOR
BURNING IS PROHIBITED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A COMBINATION OF FUELS AND WEATHER CONDITIONS SUPPORT
EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND/OR FIRE BEHAVIOR.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR TYPICALLY 24 TO 36 HOURS IN ADVANCE. LISTEN
FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

ROSA

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST WED FEB 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD SATURDAY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTED THE
LOCAL REGION THIS MORNING. LATER...MOST ACTIVITY MOVED AWAY FROM
THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. VERY DRY AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH LATEST 19/12Z
TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED PW VALUES OF 1.44 INCHES...LATEST SJU-GFS
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS PW VALUES OF LESS THAN 1 INCH OVER THE
REGION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH WILL DESTABILIZES SOMEWHAT
THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE. AFTERWARD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A FRESH TRADE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. A DRIER AIR
MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TIL 20/04Z...THEN POSSIBLE BRIEF
PERIODS OF SHRA CAN MOVE IN AND OUT TJSJ...TIST AND TISX. WINDS
MAINLY FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KTS WITH BRIEF HIGHER SFC WND
GUST.

&&

.MARINE...BOUY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SEAS BETWEEN 6 TO 8 FEET HAS
PREVAILED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR MOST COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH AT CAMP SANTIAGO IN SALINAS DROP TO 32 PERCENT
AND WINDS AT CABO ROJO HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH.
A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 PM AST FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 014. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 73 81 / 20 20 20 40
STT 74 85 74 84 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Variable weather between sunny and sometimes cloudy with scattered showers is what is expected today in PR and VI.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
403 AM AST THU FEB 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVR THE SW ATLC WILL RACE
QUICKLY EWD TODAY AND TONIGHT AND MOVE PAST PR FRI MORNING. FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD FRI THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOCAL AREA STILL UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT SIDE
OF JET STREAK SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
THE WEST OF 70W WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA EARLY TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE NORTH
COAST...NORTHEAST PR AND THE USVI. TRADES STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE
AND PEAK EARLY FRI AND THIS LIKELY TO ENHANCE PRECIP IN
UPSLOPE/WINDWARD AREAS. DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FRI WITH FLAT RIDGE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
COMPLETELY INHIBIT CHANCES OF SHOWERS DURING THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK BUT AT THE SAME TIME REALLY NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. TYPICALLY...THE LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY IS ON AVERAGE THE
DRIEST PERIOD OF THE YEAR AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE WE`LL SEE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF -SHRA/VCSH IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TIST AND TISX. WINDS
MAINLY FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KTS OVRNGHT...INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KTS WITH BRIEF HIGHER SFC WND GUSTS AFTER
20/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRADES STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AND EXPECTED TO PEAK EARLY
FRI THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS 6-8
FEET TODAY-FRI THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WINDS SUBSIDE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SIG FIRE WX POTENTIAL AGAIN TODAY DUE TO STRONG
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES. POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS TO ROLL IN
LATE IN THE DAY OVER SOUTHWEST PR MAY TEMPER THE FIRE RISK
SOMEWHAT IN THAT AREA AS COMPARED TO YDAY. HOWEVER...THINGS ARE
STARTING MUCH DRIER TODAY THAN ATTM YDAY WITH RH`S RUNNING ABOUT
10-12% LOWER. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED AROUND THE CAMP SANTIAGO
AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 76 81 76 / 10 50 50 30
STT 85 77 83 77 / 10 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

Beautiful morning in Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST THU FEB 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL
RACE QUICKLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND MOVE PAST PR FRIDAY MORNING. FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS STARTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO.
THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC...AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE
EAST. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE LONG
TERM AT THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. AFTER 21/12Z
PERIODS OF -SHRA/VCSH IN AND AROUND ALL TAF SITE...EXCLUDING
TJPS...TNCM AND TKPK. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 15 AND 25
KTS WITH BRIEF HIGHER SFC WND GUSTS...DECREASING BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KNOTS AFTER 20/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...BOUY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SEAS BETWEEN 6 TO 8 FEET HAS
PREVAILED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR MOST COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NOAA FIRE DETECTION FROM NESDIS SHOWED A FIRE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER COAMO. IN ADDITION...SATELITE IMAGES
AND RADAR OBSERVATION SHOWED ANOTHER FIRE BETWEEN GUAYAMA AND SALINAS. A
RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS
UNTIL 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 72 83 / 50 50 30 30
STT 74 84 74 84 / 40 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR and VI this morning followed by drier weather for the rest of this Friday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST FRI FEB 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER TROUGH DIGGING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY...AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. BY THIS EVENING AND INTO
SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS TO LIFT FURTHER EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS. IN DOING SO...IT WILL REPOSITION LOCAL AREA
ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS EXPECTED PATTERN SHOULD
THEREFORE LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS
AND SURROUNDING WATERS. AT LOW-LEVELS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREAFTER
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY RELAX BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE PULLS RETROGRESSES EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
COLD FRONT ENTERING AND MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS AS WELL AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT
A SURGE OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE ENHANCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH...WILL
PRODUCE QUICK DEVELOPING SHOWERS THAT WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS AND REACH PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
TO THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS DURING
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE INTENSITY. EXPECT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO ONCE AGAIN
BECOME DRIER LATER IN THE DAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION. THEREFORE...SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS WILL BE MOSTLY ISOLATED AND MAINLY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... WITH
MOSTLY STREAMER LIKE CONVECTION WHICH MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY
LOCAL EFFECTS IN SOME AREAS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OF
SHORT DURATION AS THE PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THE REST OF THE ISLANDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DURING THE THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTER 21/10Z PERIODS OF SHRA/VCSH AND BRIEF MVFR IN AND
AROUND ALL OF THE LOCAL TAF SITE...EXCEPT TJMZ AND TJPS. AFTER
21/16Z SHRA/VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH BRIEF MVFR.
MTN OBSCURATIONS IN USVI BTWN 21/10-18Z AND IN PUERTO RICO AFTER
21/12Z SPREADING WEST THRU 21/16Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK... AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WIND WILL
BRING A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ALONG WITH THIS...
SOME ENHANCED SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF WETTING RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN SOME AREAS AS A RESULT OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...INCREASINGLY DRY
AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH EXPECTED MINIMAL RAINFALL...
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE FIRE DANGER THREAT IN SOME
AREAS. HOWEVER... WEATHER AND FUEL CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH
COASTAL PLAINS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE OCCURRENCE DUE
TO OVERALL DRYNESS IN FUEL MOISTURE IN RECENT DAYS. THEREFORE...EXPECT
SOME PREDICTABLE FIRE BEHAVIOR WITH ONLY MODERATE RATES OF SPREAD.
FOR THIS REASON... ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN THESE AREAS ARE
URGED TO CONTINUE TO DISPOSE OF ALL FLAMMABLE MATERIALS IN THEIR PROPER
RECEPTACLES AND REPORT ANY SMOKE OR FIRE SIGHTINGS TO THE LOCAL FIRE
DEPARTMENT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER PLANNING DISCUSSION
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 83 72 / 50 30 30 30
STT 84 74 84 74 / 40 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

Nice picture of two rainbows in San Juan.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST FRI FEB 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE
WEST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO LIFT EAST NORTHEAST. AT
LOW LEVELS...UNDER INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY...WITH FREQUENT PASSING SHOWERS OVER LOCAL WATERS...
THE USVI AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO. ALSO...SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BY LATE TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
LIFT FURTHER EAST NORTHEAST WITH MID/UPPER CONVERGENT PATTERN
ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE FORECAST TO RESULT IN EROSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...EROSION
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE AS A RIDGE PATTERN BUILDS FROM
THE WEST. THEREFORE...SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY WILL DECREASE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS A FEW TRADE WIND SHOWERS IN THE MORNING
HOURS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF SHRA/VCSH AND BRIEF MVFR IN AND AROUND ALL
TAF SITES TIL 21/23Z. MTN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS USVI BTWN 21/18Z AND
22/21Z...ALSO ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL PR TIL 21/23Z. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE ROUGH AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 83 73 84 / 30 30 30 30
STT 74 84 74 85 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru parts of PR today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST SAT FEB 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...LATEST AREA OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS IS
MOVING ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS MAINLY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO/CULEBRA/
ST. THOMAS. GFS ONLY ANTICIPATES ABOUT 1.3 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER BUT SATELLITE SHOWS THAT AS MUCH AS 1.6 INCHES MAY BRUSH
PAST US/USVI WHICH IS SIMILAR TO FRI. STILL...THIS IS A SMALLER
AREA OF MOISTURE THAN PASSED BY THE ISLANDS YESTERDAY SO EXPECT
COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE RAIN TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS. 00Z GFS EXPECTS
A DISAPPEARING STABLE LAYER NEAR 850 MB AND IMPLIES THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON HEATING.

TRADE WINDS DIE OFF A LITTLE SUN/MON AND BECOME SLIGHTLY DIVERGENT
IN LOWER LEVELS DUE TO THE RIDGE BECOMING MORE INFLUENTIAL. THIS
WILL PREVENT AS MUCH MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS IT TRANSPORTS WEST
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...FEWER SHOWERS AND CLOUDS.

DECREASING WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER FUEL
MOISTURE RECOVERY NEAR THE DRY PR SOUTH COAST EVEN WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN. FUELS SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER OFF THOUGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST BEGINNING THIS
MORNING ACROSS TNCM. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD WESTWARD
ACROSS TIST AND TISX BY ABOUT 22/12Z...ACROSS TJSJ BEFORE 22/14Z AND
TJMZ BTWN 22/16-17Z. SHRA WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MTN OBSCURATIONS
AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE
SURFACE UP THRU 20 KFT...ENE-ESE AT 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
KT POSSIBLE THRU 22/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS COMING WEEK.
MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GET SHOVED EASTWARD BY SEVERAL STRONG
STORM SYSTEMS DEVELOPING EAST OF U.S. COAST. AREA OF WINDS GREATER
THAN 20 KT AND SEAS EXCESS OF 6 FT WILL DECREASE BY SUNDAY...THEN
FOR ANEDAGA PASSAGE TOO ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 70 84 70 / 50 40 30 40
STT 83 74 85 74 / 50 40 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
322 PM AST SAT FEB 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE
WEST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO LIFT EAST NORTHEAST. AT LOW
LEVELS...UNDER INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY...WITH FREQUENT PASSING SHOWERS OVER LOCAL WATERS...
THE USVI AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO. ALSO...SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AS THE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER EAST NORTHEAST...RIDGE PATTERN WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PROMOTING EROSION OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM
TIME TO TIME.

THEREFORE SUNDAY AND INTO MIDWEEK...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS TO BE MOSTLY ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED AND MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...WITH MOSTLY STREAMER LIKE CONVECTION WHICH MAY BE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY LOCAL EFFECTS IN SOME AREAS. ALSO...TRADE WIND
SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
OF SHORT DURATION AS THE PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS SHOULD
LIMIT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THE REST OF THE ISLANDS
SHOULD EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA WILL MOVE IN AND OUT ALL TAF SITES TIL 22/23Z...IN
ADDITION ISOLATED TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT TJBQ AND TJMZ. AS THIS
SHOWERS SPREAD WESTWARD MTN OBSCURATION AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THEN...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR PSBL AT TNCM AND TKPK TIL 23/06Z.
SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE ENE BETWEEN 10 AND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS COMING WEEK.
MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GET SHOVED EASTWARD BY SEVERAL STRONG
STORM SYSTEMS DEVELOPING EAST OF U.S. COAST. AREA OF WINDS GREATER
THAN 20 KT AND SEAS EXCESS OF 6 FT WILL DECREASE BY SUNDAY...THEN
FOR ANEDAGA PASSAGE TOO ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 84 71 85 / 40 20 40 40
STT 74 85 74 84 / 40 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

Beautiful sunset in the Central Cordillera mountain range in Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather is expected today in PR and VI with only isolated showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
425 AM AST SUN FEB 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...QUITE A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF PR ASSOCIATED
WITH A 925-850 MB WIND SURGE BUT THIS IS MOVING WEST AND LEAVE
BEHIND NO BETTER THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING. WIND
SURGES AND MOISTURE WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
LOW LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING EAST IN THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENING
THE TRADES. SEA BREEZES WILL BE A LITTLE MORE NOTICABLE.

PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER 1.5 INCHES THE REST OF
THIS WEEK AND LITTLE OR NO JET SUPPORT WILL TURN THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN PR IN AFTERNOON. BUT THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL RETURN AT LEAST BY TUESDAY...AND ALONG WITH VERY
DRY MID-LEVEL AIR THUNDER WILL BECOME LESS A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA ISOLATED PASSING SHRA OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TODAY AT AROUND 5-10 KTS. AFTER
23/13Z WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 15KTS AND GUSTY...CONTINUED EAST
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR MAY CAUSE SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA IN AND AROUND
TJMZ AND TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND TRADE
WINDS WILL DECREASE BY MONDAY. LESS WIND AND SEAS WILL ALLOW THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE LOWERED PROBABLY BY NOON ON MONDAY. NO
LARGE SWELLS ON THE HORIZON THIS WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 85 74 / 20 40 30 20
STT 85 74 84 74 / 20 50 40 20