Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ntxw]

If you haven't checked out the Euro weeklies you should. It too follows the strong block over Alaska. Severe cold (for the time of year) putting a shock into the system as the Pacific continues to pump ridging a midst the re-surging warm pool.

The models have not failed us when it comes to ridging in this part of the world this season. When they show it, it has come to fruition if not stronger.

[TheProfessor]

Any chance the southern jet becomes active at that time? I would love winter weather in March.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Any chance the southern jet becomes active at that time? I would love winter weather in March.

This is a possibility but we are talking about next week not March. Beyond truncation the ensembles have been persistent about storms digging underneath (hence the undercutting jet) after the cold air masses arrive. Typically the front end and back end of the cold blasts feature significant storms. We'll have to wait and see, this is still quite a days out but the zonal flow will get flushed in a couple of days and we return to old man winter's pattern. This weekend's cold front will be the first demise of false spring.

[South Texas Storms]

More warm weather is in the forecast for the rest of this week. Please check out my latest weather article for more details!
http://www.examiner.com/article/more-warm-temperatures-the-forecast

[Portastorm]

Ah yes ... happy to see the cold mongerer contingent not letting a daylong forum outage negatively impact their enthusiasm! PWC mets tonight are raising a glass of Grey Goose in your honor!

The PWC also believes winter returns to Texas next week and the "false spring" will be just a pleasant, albeit brief memory.

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi: "The ECWMF weeklies tonight give little hope for a warm Us March. As a matter of fact, they are brutal looking."

[Ntxw]

Given that the GFS (the progressive one) is now wanting a Rex block too, the idea of another big high system coming down next week looks good. TeamPlayersBlue may just win his bet with the heat miser.

I see no evidence of a warm pattern, of course wxman57 will find it beyond truncation. Plants and the dark lord of summer will not deny the Pacific Ocean!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im back after a weekend in Austin. Man was it hot. Euro looks very interesting. 1048mb high into Texas? Nuts. We shall see. As someone who works in the financial industry, im looking to go short on Nat Gas futures when the cold finally ends. This latest Euro model showing cold will keep me waiting on going short. Im anticipating the price will drop rapidly when the warm up comes

[wxman57]

00Z Euro has temps down to the upper 30s in Dallas by the end of the month. That's as cold as it gets.

[Texas Snowman]

Right on cue! Who's on first?

[Ntxw]

If General Sam Houston can take Texas against the bigger Santa Anna in Harris county, we can do the same from the heat miser. Good always wins! Believe!

[wxman57]

And the GFS has Houston's temps into the low 40s next week, followed by a gradual warm-up. Though the Euro indicates some cold coming into the U.S., it's not directing much toward Texas next week. While forecasts like this for next Tuesday look somewhat impressive vs. zonal flow:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014021806/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_namer_31.png

The flow quickly switches back to zonal by Friday with onshore flow across Texas:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014021806/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_namer_50.png

No winter weather across Texas next week. In fact, temps across southeast Texas look to be a little above normal for next week (48-68):

[Texas Snowman]

Something told me a Meteogram was forthcoming.

Heat Miser has had a rough winter season so far.

[Texas Snowman]

Look at the pretty colors!

[Tireman4]

[quote="wxman57"]And the GFS has Houston's temps into the low 40s next week, followed by a gradual warm-up. Though the Euro indicates some cold coming into the U.S., it's not directing much toward Texas next week. While forecasts like this for next Tuesday look somewhat impressive vs. zonal flow:

We're gonna win. We're gonna win. He he he !!!!

[northjaxpro]

Should the temperature forecasts verify by the end of this month into the first of March, the cold is returning for sure. I saw the models from a couple of days ago indicating the possible blocking pattern across Alaska and ridging across the Western U.S. by the end of February.

Winter is not over yet, as the cold looks to return especially across the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS.

[TheProfessor]

I would love for winter to come back. But I think the bigger priority is the need for precipitation, I almost don't care how we get it but we really need it!

[South Texas Storms]

I really hope the long range computer models forecast of a wet March for Texas (specifically the CFSv2) verifies. San Antonio has had less than .50 inch of rain so far this year. I know January and February are typically drier months around here, but I would still like to see more than 1 inch of rain for the first 2 months of the year. We could really use a wet spring across Texas!

[dhweather]

12Z GFS for DFW







I think we've got most of the issues worked out with the automatic spreadsheet. I'll get it uploaded and post a link.

[TheProfessor]

hmmm? Perhaps a severe weather event on March 3?