Where's it going?

[chris_fit]

Ok guys, best predictions (guesses?). Where's it going?

Updated with the Fish option

[AussieMark]

I like the stretch of coast beteen Palm Beach and Jacksonville because if u continue the NHC plot that is where it takes the storm.

But again this could be Georgia's first Major Hurricane Strike in over a century.

[Guest]

Kinda forgot the one area that the models are in agreement with tonight and thats VA/MD!.......................Right not i would go with NC/VA/MD................Between one of those places!

[JetMaxx]

I like the stretch of coast beteen Palm Beach and Jacksonville because if u continue the NHC plot that is where it takes the storm.

But again this could be Georgia's first Major Hurricane Strike in over a century.

Friend...I'm sitting here at 2:30 a.m. looking over model data wondering the exact same thing.....the latest UKMet now brings Isabel onshore between Savannah and Charleston on day 5....and the GFS continues to trend west...

I'm beginning to wonder if instead of wild GFS swings from South Florida (one even took Issy over Cuba) to offshore near Bermuda -- if the true answer isn't in the middle....the NE Florida and Georgia coast....and area untouched by a major hurricane for over a century -- yet monster hurricanes in 1851, 1854, 1881, 1893, and 1898 proved it could happen.

Maybe the GFS is onto something...the hurricane slows east of the Bahamas, turn NNW in response to the weakness/ trough...but then the monster high bridges the escape route....and Isabel turns back to the WNW or NW and makes landfall between Jacksonville Beach and Hilton Head Island.....sorta like Hugo or Hazel farther southwest -- or a repeat of the 1854, 1881 or 1898 hurricanes (slammed the Georgia coast while moving WNW).

It's a very scary thought because it's been so long since a major hurricane struck the Georgia coast, I doubt half the folks on the barrier islands would even evacuate---thinking it will somehow miss again. If that occurred, we'd see a catastrophe....because the Georgia coast is shallow offshore = a trememdous storm surge potential.....and the approaching Autumnal equinox on the 20th would make tides even higher.

[AussieMark]

as a matter of interest how populated is the coast from North Florida to Southern South Carolina.

[janswizard]

Interesting comment, Perry, about the autumnal equinox. I assume that this means that tides will be higher/lower than usual as compared to regular lunar tides. Do you know if there is any information about how much higher a tide would be during the equinox?

[Dmetal81]

Between N FL and SC there isnt much.... Except Savannah, which is a fairly large city. Alot of military bases (Beaufort Air Station, parris island) reside there, but it is mostly swamps and stuff right along the coast. So other than savannah... very little

[Lindaloo]

I voted SC. But my gut feeling is the border of GA/SC.

[wrkh99]

MEXICO !


This poll needs the Fish Option

[Stormcenter]

You forgot to add "Out To Sea". I think that MAY be where she is headed eventually. That's my prediction TODAY.

[JetMaxx]

It doesn't take a large population center for a hurricane disaster to occur....the Mississippi Coast was rural in 1969 and over 200 lives were lost...most from storm surge...my great fear with Isabel should landfall occur between St Augustine and Hilton Head Island.

Savannah is a fairly large population center..200-250,000 in the metro area, and there are another 75-100,000 between SAV and the Florida border; metro Jacksonville is home to over a million people now.

Fyi - Jan...I was incorrect about the equinox (what I get for getting my information off the WWBB message board --the Autumnal equinox isn't until 9/22-23 according to my calender...this hurricane should be history by then (well inland or dying over the North Atlantic shipping lanes)....so I doubt it will be a factor in raising tide levels.

[chris_fit]

You forgot to add "Out To Sea". I think that MAY be where she is headed eventually. That's my prediction TODAY.

There you go :-P

[Colin]

Wow KOW...you really think that? :o I'd be in big trouble if that happened! :o

[Islandgirl]

I live in Brunswick Ga, halfway between Savannah and Jacksonville. I don't know the population, but there are alot of people here. Then there are the Islands, St. Simons, which is extremly overcrowded, Sea Island , and Jekyll. That is just Glynn Co. Not to mention Camden, where Kings Bay is. I have never been in a hurricane, and don't plan to. This land is so low it is amazing they got building permits. But it is a booming area. All kinds of people moving here constantly. That's why we sold our house on the island. Too many people. And you are exacly right about the evac. Many people are saying they will never leave after the last time[Floyd] because it's not coming here. But you can bet your bottom dollar, if they say go, my family and pets are out of here.

[Rainband]

My vote is wait and see..this is all well and good..but if the experts don't know... How can any of us!!! I will wait to see what happens...

[chris_fit]

21 for FL, 17 For Carolina's.... basically 50/50 according to the users here.... someone is in for it



~Chris

[Josephine96]

Just said what's left of "On-ray" could end up being the determining factor as to if she comes straight at us..