ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Macrocane]

Oh please please please let a strong El Nino develops, We need the Texas Highland Lakes chain to fill up.

Oh no, please no, we've already had to consecutive years of drought in eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras and southwestern Nicaragua and El Niño would increase the chances for a 3rd year in a row. Let it be average

[cycloneye]

Here is a loop of the strong El Nino of 1997-1998. Notice that it starts slow but picks up during Summer 1997 and peaks in the October thru December timeframe.

[WeatherGuesser]

So, what does all this mean for this summer and next winter?

[Kingarabian]

Back to a little reality. Lets not go too overboard with El Nino talk, there isn't an El Nino at this time in fact the surface SST's look more like neutral nina if anything else. But the stage is being set and things are changing and the possibility continues to grow over just dominant neutral. IF there were to be an El Nino the earliest it could be declared is mid to late summer and that's if we were talking about a strong one.

I think because ENSO is teasing us with the ESPI and PDO indexes turning positive for the first time in a while .

[cycloneye]

We may need another strong Kelvin wave to reinforce the present warm pool at the Subsurface to then ENSO reach El Nino conditions. Ntxw,I am right about this?

[Ntxw]

We may need another strong Kelvin wave to reinforce the present warm pool at the Subsurface to then ENSO reach El Nino conditions. Ntxw,I am right about this?

It will certainly help. Once this warm pool reaches the surface it should help MJO waves progress east into the eastern basins and feedback occurs. That MJO wave is about to kick up soon as in a post earlier I put a map showing a new wave.

[Kingarabian]

SOI at +6.6

[cycloneye]

Here is the big Kelvin Wave in the Western Pacific moving eastward.

[ninel conde]

SOI +9.2

[Kingarabian]

SOI +9.2

Those are the daily's averages.

** Daily values are not the SOI but contribute to the calculation of the monthly SOI. Daily values are presented for research purposes only. 30 day (or larger) average SOI values are the key indices for forecast purposes.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 2/18/14 update

Nino 3.4 was less cool in this new update at -0.5C. That is up from -0.8C that was in last week update. Notice how much warmer is Nino 4 at +0.4C. That separation of numbers between Nino 3.4 and Nino 4 are the first effects of the large warm pool at the subsurface plus the kelvin wave moving thru the Western Pacific right now.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

NHC forecaster compares this years ENSO forecast with 1957 and 1997 but I agree with him about the skills at long range.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 6 min
Fwiw, early SST fcsts from the CFSv2 for ASO remind me of 1957 and 1997. Skill is quite low at this range however! pic.twitter.com/5srusBtfDB

[Kingarabian]

NHC forecaster compares this years ENSO forecast with 1957 and 1997 but I agree with him about the skills at long range.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 6 min
Fwiw, early SST fcsts from the CFSv2 for ASO remind me of 1957 and 1997. Skill is quite low at this range however! pic.twitter.com/5srusBtfDB

[img]

Agreed. This will be a major testimony for the models, researchers, and forecasters to see how far we have reached in predicting ENSO.

[cycloneye]

30 day SOI continues to go down for ten days in a row from +14.5 to +5.2.

[Ntxw]

Here's something interesting, Feb 18th 2009 Nino 3.4 registered -0.6C. 19th of February 1997 Nino 3.4 was -0.4C. Moral of the story? It can flip in a hurry!

[cycloneye]

The warm pool continues to expand eastward. Also,that brown area that represent +5C-thru +6C and more is getting bigger. Saved loop.

[cycloneye]

Ntxw, question about if the polar vortex has any effects on ENSO?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, question about if the polar vortex has any effects on ENSO?

Dont think so. The PV is around every year at various locations so theres no correlation. The reason its been on the news is because the media is fixated on it. Culprit is NE Pac ridging which may have played a role in the latest +PDO reading, ridge caused the pv to go so far south.

[Ntxw]

The new MJO wave that kicked up and is currently very strong looks to be the biggest one in awhile (stronger than the last.) Notice how much time it has spent in the Pacific the past 60 days and weakens as it leaves the basin only to return to it. Have we begun seeing feedback? Is this a sign the EPAC and WPAC are on the money this year with persistent Kelvin waves?

[cycloneye]

Very interesting. That is what the warm pool now at the subsurface may need to sustain and grow even more.