WTXS31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 19.4S 39.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 39.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.2S 39.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.2S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.6S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 28.1S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 32.2S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 35.8S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 40.2S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 39.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUITO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM WEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED
CONSOLIDATION AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME
TIGHTER WRAPPED WHILE THE FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE REMAINED
BROKEN. AN 182227Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY BROAD WHILE THE BANDING HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE
DEFINED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION ALONG
WITH THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN 182120Z SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING 35 TO
45 KNOT WINDS ALONG WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME
VALUE FROM KNES AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) WHILE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ADDITIONALLY SHOWS
GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST. AFTER TAU 48, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND CAUSE TC 15S TO
RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO PEAK
OF 70 KNOTS DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVELS AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES(SSTS). AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING VWS ALONG WITH
DECREASING SSTS WILL BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING PROCESS. EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TAU 72 AND WILL COMPLETE BY
TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE FORECAST TRACK, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z.//
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