Texas Winter 2013-2014

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8501 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 18, 2014 11:29 pm

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:Isn't this the forecast organization that was terribly wrong most of the winter, calling for above normal for Texas?


Correct it is the same group. However the misery is with the monthly and seasonal forecasts. The weekly outlooks on the CPC page performs quite well. The problem with them is beyond just being right or wrong, it seems there is either an agenda or something forced because clearly meteorologists and forecasters of such merit would not do something as egregious as what has happened IMO.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8502 Postby orangeblood » Wed Feb 19, 2014 12:08 am

Ntxw wrote:
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:Isn't this the forecast organization that was terribly wrong most of the winter, calling for above normal for Texas?


Correct it is the same group. However the misery is with the monthly and seasonal forecasts. The weekly outlooks on the CPC page performs quite well. The problem with them is beyond just being right or wrong, it seems there is either an agenda or something forced because clearly meteorologists and forecasters of such merit would not do something as egregious as what has happened IMO.


Considering the rumblings coming from the big money liberal donors lately, it won't be the last time we have to deal with this global warming agenda - excuse me "climate change" :wink:
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#8503 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Feb 19, 2014 12:08 am

Ntxw and yours truly aren't the only ones drinking the Kool-Aid about colder weather coming for the end of the month and into March.

From Texoma Weather's Facebook page a few moments ago:

"Enjoy the warm temperatures over the next couple of days because much colder temperatures will make a come back by late February, and likely through parts of March for locations east of the Rockies. It would be wise to not plant your gardens just yet.

Tomorrow will likely be the warmest day of the next several days due to a cold front pushing through the area overnight tomorrow. The airmass behind this cold front is not too impressive, but you'll definitely notice the cooler temperatures.

There is an ever so slight chance for an isolated storm to develop tomorrow afternoon across north Texas, or southern Oklahoma, but the CAP will likely remain too strong to see any appreciable rain across the area; however, some morning drizzle is possible.

Precipitation chances look to slightly increase during this cooler weather, for late February, so we will keep a close eye on the chance for wintry precipitation across the Southern Plains."
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8504 Postby orangeblood » Wed Feb 19, 2014 12:17 am

Well according to the latest GFS, March will come in roaring like a lion across the southern plains...Major Ice Storm on this run
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8505 Postby wxman57 » Wed Feb 19, 2014 8:15 am

Yeah, interesting 00Z GFS run for Dallas. About 1.5" of freezing rain on March 1-2. Fortunately, we can only trust these long-range outlooks when they predict warm weather.

Image

Nothing but a few days of cold weather in Houston to start out in March.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8506 Postby horselattitudesfarm » Wed Feb 19, 2014 8:42 am

orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:Isn't this the forecast organization that was terribly wrong most of the winter, calling for above normal for Texas?


Correct it is the same group. However the misery is with the monthly and seasonal forecasts. The weekly outlooks on the CPC page performs quite well. The problem with them is beyond just being right or wrong, it seems there is either an agenda or something forced because clearly meteorologists and forecasters of such merit would not do something as egregious as what has happened IMO.


Considering the rumblings coming from the big money liberal donors lately, it won't be the last time we have to deal with this global warming agenda - excuse me "climate change" :wink:

Can everybody please refrain from posting their political views on here? I know everyone is entitled to their views, but climate change is really, and should be, a scientific issue that has to resolve over time using the Scientific Method. Good UNBIASED analyzing has to be used to evaluate data and most scientists are just trying to interpret what the data shows without any type of agenda: That is what Peer-Review is for. Thank you for listening to me.......That is all.
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#8507 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 19, 2014 9:16 am

To continue the NOAA thoughts, they are now forecasting a likely warmer than average spring and March for us. Seemingly against analogs and countless other methods. Why? What does a bunch high paid, Ph.D folks see that has them flipping against everything? I'm just an averaged joe with limited data and even I can tell tell you back in early Dec things were going below average. Then has been persisting since November, once is a mistake that's fine but as a forecaster what happened over and over and still is its bad.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8508 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Feb 19, 2014 9:28 am

wxman57 wrote:Yeah, interesting 00Z GFS run for Dallas. About 1.5" of freezing rain on March 1-2. Fortunately, we can only trust these long-range outlooks when they predict warm weather.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfsx0zfeb19.gif

Nothing but a few days of cold weather in Houston to start out in March.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfsx0zfeb19.gif


And because of that 24 hour period of below freezing weather it looks like that could be as bad or worst than are December storm. If it happened of course.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8509 Postby wxman57 » Wed Feb 19, 2014 9:39 am

TheProfessor wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Yeah, interesting 00Z GFS run for Dallas. About 1.5" of freezing rain on March 1-2. Fortunately, we can only trust these long-range outlooks when they predict warm weather.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfsx0zfeb19.gif

Nothing but a few days of cold weather in Houston to start out in March.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfsx0zfeb19.gif


And because of that 24 hour period of below freezing weather it looks like that could be as bad or worst than are December storm. If it happened of course.


Oh yeah, it would be a big disaster - knocking out power for weeks and destroying many trees. The good news is that the GFS and Euro are in very poor agreement beyond the next 2 days.
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#8510 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Feb 19, 2014 9:53 am

The next big plunge seems to be East Coast based. Its a big plunge, at the 500 MB the heights over Eastern AK and Western Canada are quite high. Doesnt look very crazy here. Im with you guys on the rain though. We need it big time.

The warm pool just SouthEast of AK, how did this develop and what will the SST be next year because of it? Will this effect our summer? NW flow for the summer? I think i remember getting a 'cold front' in June or July in '93, if were using that year as an analog. It was also...... super dry as well. Ugh, i just remembered that :|.

Or should i be comparing the summer of '94?
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Re:

#8511 Postby orangeblood » Wed Feb 19, 2014 10:09 am

Ntxw wrote:To continue the NOAA thoughts, they are now forecasting a likely warmer than average spring and March for us. Seemingly against analogs and countless other methods. Why? What does a bunch high paid, Ph.D folks see that has them flipping against everything? I'm just an averaged joe with limited data and even I can tell tell you back in early Dec things were going below average. Then has been persisting since November, once is a mistake that's fine but as a forecaster what happened over and over and still is its bad.


The only explanation I can think of is they are following the money trail. While money has done wonders for our scientific advancements, it also can corrupt even the greatest minds on this planet - its one of downsides of capitalism. Just look at this one example, of countless others, of the type of money being poured into the Climate Change Agenda at this time...... http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/18/us/politics/financier-plans-big-ad-campaign-on-environment.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&%23038;smid=tw-nytimes&%23038;_r=0. That is insane!!

We can't be naive to the fact that this is still a GOVERNMENT run organization and there is no denying there is politics involved. I just choose to ignore those forecasts and come to places like Storm2K for all things weather related.


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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8512 Postby Portastorm » Wed Feb 19, 2014 10:30 am

The line has been crossed so it is time for me to remind you all of Rule #4 for Storm2K:

4. Politics. Political debate and discussion of politics is not allowed on Storm2K. We used to have an open forum here for political talk, but it took too much staff time to moderate. We are not allowing political posts of any kind in any of our forums. If you have any questions, comments, etc., please feel free to pm any staff member.

Please refrain any further from continuing these comments or warnings/suspensions will be levied.
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#8513 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Feb 19, 2014 10:37 am

I just want cold again. Porta, do you think I could bribe the PWC mets with Grey Goose for cold? :)
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Re:

#8514 Postby wxman57 » Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:35 am

Tireman4 wrote:I just want cold again. Porta, do you think I could bribe the PWC mets with Grey Goose for cold? :)


It hit 80F for the first time in 2014 at IAH yesterday. On this date in 1986, our how in Houston was 88F. Now THAT's what I call winter!

Cold returns for a bit tomorrow night.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8515 Postby orangeblood » Wed Feb 19, 2014 12:07 pm

:double: Late next week is looking mighty interesting, 1050+ HP crossing the Canadian Border with Pacific Jet cutting underneath across the southern plains, hmmmmm....
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Re: Re:

#8516 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Feb 19, 2014 12:12 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:I just want cold again. Porta, do you think I could bribe the PWC mets with Grey Goose for cold? :)


It hit 80F for the first time in 2014 at IAH yesterday. On this date in 1986, our how in Houston was 88F. Now THAT's what I call winter!

Cold returns for a bit tomorrow night.


Well goodness me sir. It was toasty for me. So let me get this right. If the models are forecasting warm, then they are right on target. If they are forecasting cold, they are clueless, pitiful and need to be recalibrated. Hummm....
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8517 Postby wxman57 » Wed Feb 19, 2014 12:26 pm

I can't really say that the 12Z GFS dropped the idea of frozen precip in Dallas...

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Re: Re:

#8518 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Feb 19, 2014 12:29 pm

wxman57 wrote:It hit 80F for the first time in 2014 at IAH yesterday. On this date in 1986, our how in Houston was 88F. Now THAT's what I call winter!

Cold returns for a bit tomorrow night.


Well goodness me sir. It was toasty for me. So let me get this right. If the models are forecasting warm, then they are right on target. If they are forecasting cold, they are clueless, pitiful and need to be recalibrated. Hummm....[/quote]

That's why Ntxw and Portastorm came up with the much more reliable WSI Index this winter. It has been consistently in the -- WSI range over the last couple of months. :D
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Re: Re:

#8519 Postby TexasStorm » Wed Feb 19, 2014 12:41 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:
wxman57 wrote:It hit 80F for the first time in 2014 at IAH yesterday. On this date in 1986, our how in Houston was 88F. Now THAT's what I call winter!

Cold returns for a bit tomorrow night.


Well goodness me sir. It was toasty for me. So let me get this right. If the models are forecasting warm, then they are right on target. If they are forecasting cold, they are clueless, pitiful and need to be recalibrated. Hummm....


That's why Ntxw and Portastorm came up with the much more reliable WSI Index this winter. It has been consistently in the -- WSI range over the last couple of months. :D[/quote]


There are plenty of sites out there that go into detail about the models performing worse for winter events than warm weather. But you guys probably already knew that.
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#8520 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 19, 2014 12:45 pm

+WSI week 1, -WSI watch week 2, --WSI watch week 2-3
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