Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Tireman4]

+WSI week 1, -WSI watch week 2, --WSI watch week 2-3

I just want it to snow on Wxman 57 right in the middle his training cycle run...that is all I want...

[Bocadude85]

I know this doesn't belong in the Texas winter weather thread, but our lack of winter here has left me very bored. So I thought I would post my areas 7 day forecast for wxman57 to take a look at.


This Afternoon Sunny, with a high near 81. Southeast wind around 10 mph.
Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. East wind around 8 mph.
Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 83. Breezy, with an east wind 8 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Southeast wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Friday Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. South wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. South wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Saturday A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Light south wind becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Southeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Sunday A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Light southwest wind becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
Sunday Night A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68.
Monday A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.
Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.
Tuesday A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.

[wxman57]

Went back to the record books to look at February of 1986, the winter with the 91F high tomorrow. What I didn't remember was that one week earlier IAH had a low of 28. I'd forgotten that it did freeze that winter. In fact, IAH recorded 7 freezes in the winter of 1985-1986, including a 25F low in mid December. Here's the February graphic with the nice warm up that occurred around this time of the month. We had one more freeze on March 1st (31F) that year.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So the Polar Vortex is coming back to the Great Lakes region again. Great.

[Ntxw]

Wxman57 and his dreams of 85-86. Was it not warm 86-87 too? Luckily the players for 2014-2015 looks nothing like that at this time!

[Tireman4]

Wxman57 and his dreams of 85-86. Was it not warm 86-87 too? Luckily the players for 2014-2015 looks nothing like that at this time!

Poor Wxman57. He keeps clinging to it like it is a favorite bike to race with. Ha ha. Oh the dreams of hot youth....Winter of 85-86, the high pressure ridge of death and the Summer of 2011...oh my....

[Ntxw]

So the Polar Vortex is coming back to the Great Lakes region again. Great.

I prefer to call it the return of the -EPO or Alaskan ridging none of that PV funny business the media clings to

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So the Polar Vortex is coming back to the Great Lakes region again. Great.

I prefer to call it the return of the -EPO or Alaskan ridging none of that PV funny business the media clings to

True, but it hangs around just north of the GL in the last two runs. Yeah that ridging is insane, why cant it come back this way Something to do with the NAO?

[orangeblood]

Natural Gas futures are sky rocketing....up over $6.20/mmBtu for March contracts (highest in over 3 years). Great indicator for another Big Arctic Outbreak about to crash into the lower 48 late next week.

[BigB0882]

Correlation is not causation.

[TheProfessor]

I love cloudy days like these. I don't mind it being cloudy and warm.

[gboudx]

I love cloudy days like these. I don't mind it being cloudy and warm.

Our forecasted high was 79. I see it's now been dropped to 73 though. Unless these clouds thin out, I don't see that happening either. Been in the mid 60's since this morning.

[orangeblood]

Correlation is not causation.

True, magnitude is not discernible but markets are playing catch up because of an unforeseen cold snap...I wonder where they are getting their forecast from ? hmmm

[Ntxw]

Unforeseen unless they followed s2k! Thaw thaw thaw, false spring!

WSI index is the new hot buzz for investing predictions!

[Portastorm]

Gotta love that 12z GFS run ...




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[wxman57]

Don't count your Arctic fronts before they're hatched. A week from now we may be talking about the cold air that wasn't...

[Ntxw]

With the 2013-2014 winter juju its as good as done! At least for cold, moisture not so much...yet.

[Tireman4]

Don't count your Arctic fronts before they're hatched. A week from now we may be talking about the cold air that wasn't...

Ha ha ha.....You need to go skiing sir. Bode misses you. We shall prevail. This will be the coldest Summer since 1976...

[wxman57]

12Z Euro has temps 15F below normal in Dallas on March 1st. That equates to 31-32 in the DFW area (and mid 40s in Houston) where the 12Z GFS has a low in the mid teens in Dallas (and low 30s in Houston). Personally, I don't care if you're -50F up in Dallas as long as you keep the cold up there. Both are deterministic forecasts which will probably change between now and day 10. Meanwhile, I'll be working on building a tall wall along the Red River...

[gboudx]

DFW NWS mentions the GFS. Do they read here?

GFS HAS UNVEILED A STRONG ICE PRODUCING WINTER OUTBREAK ON DAY 9
AND 10...BUT THERE IS NO CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE
ECMWF IS NOT NEARLY SO COLD AND MUCH DRIER. IT TOO EARLY PUT MUCH
STOCK IN THE GFS.