ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters made a short post to announce that a a big post about ENSO will be made on Friday. Let's see what it will reveal about El Nino.

I'll have a guest post on El Niño posted on Friday. We could see a Super-El Niño this fall!

Jeff Masters

[Ntxw]

Dr Jeff Masters made a short post to announce that a a big post about ENSO will be made on Friday. Let's see what it will reveal about El Nino.

I'll have a guest post on El Niño posted on Friday. We could see a Super-El Niño this fall!

Jeff Masters

Something to note, El Nino when it first turns on after being absent following La Nina's tends to be moderate or strong and not the weak variety. Some examples would be 57/58, 63/64, 72/73, 82/83,97/98, 09/10. All were moderate or strong Ninos, we are overdue for a super nino which tends to occur once per decade.

[Portastorm]

So when was the last "Super Nino?"

I'm sure Dr. Masters will answer that question tomorrow but I was a bit curious.

[Portastorm]

So when was the last "Super Nino?"

I'm sure Dr. Masters will answer that question tomorrow but I was a bit curious.

Edit update: Never mind ... did a little research. Looks like 82-93 and 97-98 were the last two "Super Ninos."

[Ntxw]

So when was the last "Super Nino?"

I'm sure Dr. Masters will answer that question tomorrow but I was a bit curious.

Edit update: Never mind ... did a little research. Looks like 82-93 and 97-98 were the last two "Super Ninos."

You can add 72/73 into the Super Nino group. It too featured 2.0C+ which usually is the threshold I think qualifies one (not scientific). 57-58 came very close to being one as well.

[cycloneye]

So when was the last "Super Nino?"

I'm sure Dr. Masters will answer that question tomorrow but I was a bit curious.

Here are the 1957-1958 and 1997-1998 strong El Ninos compared with the forecast by the CFSv2 model at the bottom graphic.

[Ntxw]

SOI +9.2

Those are the daily's averages.

** Daily values are not the SOI but contribute to the calculation of the monthly SOI. Daily values are presented for research purposes only. 30 day (or larger) average SOI values are the key indices for forecast purposes.

You have to be careful using daily SOI's as guidance. There is a reason 30 day SOI is more reliable. You can look at daily SOI and see where the trend may go but it is not be all end all the way 30 day is calculated. It is a moving average, we are losing the big values late last month as we continue to move forward in the days hence even with weaker + readings the average still goes down on 30 day. Exception would be when you see daily's show very big values 20+ or even 30+ that's when they significantly change the 30 day in a hurry.

In about a week (if there are no major +SOI's) we will lose the big daily +SOI's earlier in the month and the average may dip below 0, currently at 3.8+

[cycloneye]

Yikes! Updated graphic shows the strong Kelvin Wave continuing to move Eastward.

[Kingarabian]

SOI +9.2

Those are the daily's averages.

** Daily values are not the SOI but contribute to the calculation of the monthly SOI. Daily values are presented for research purposes only. 30 day (or larger) average SOI values are the key indices for forecast purposes.

You have to be careful using daily SOI's as guidance. There is a reason 30 day SOI is more reliable. You can look at daily SOI and see where the trend may go but it is not be all end all the way 30 day is calculated. It is a moving average, we are losing the big values late last month as we continue to move forward in the days hence even with weaker + readings the average still goes down on 30 day. Exception would be when you see daily's show very big values 20+ or even 30+ that's when they significantly change the 30 day in a hurry.

In about a week (if there are no major +SOI's) we will lose the big daily +SOI's earlier in the month and the average may dip below 0, currently at 3.8+

Yeah I was trying to explain that to ninel conde. I think he had the daily's and the monthly averages mixed up.

Can't wait to see Dr. Masters post!!!

[tolakram]

Someone posted this on a local forum, the global wind map.

http://earth.nullschool.net

Note you can rotate and zoom in and out. So what would we be looking for, as far as winds, to indicate a change in nina to nino patterns?

[cycloneye]

Very interesting messages about ENSO and 2014 Atlantic hurricane season effects by Levi Cowan and NHC forecaster Eric Blake. WAM means West African Monsoon and GOG means Gulf of Guinea.


Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 10 min
Cold GOG enhances WAM, but that didn't help Atl. hurricane seasons of '65 and '82.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 4 min
@EricBlake12 Easily - just wondered if active wave train can punch a few thru to other side of the TUTT N of 20N where shear is low in Nino

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 2 min
@TropicalTidbits Some El Ninos really have a lot of that high-latitude stuff (e.g 2002), others like 1965, not so much. a bit of mystery why


Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 12 min
@EricBlake12 Easily - just wondered if active wave train can punch a few thru to other side of the TUTT N of 20N where shear is low in Nino

[cycloneye]

The Mid Febuary plume is out and the only sure thing is La Nina will not be present by next Summer.



http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... uick-look/

[cycloneye]

Saved loop of subsurface waters shows how that warm pool is beginning to go up to surface.

[cycloneye]

We have here plenty of information to look at that I had to make a hyperlink of the blog from WU of Dr Masters made today by Dr Michael Ventrice.



Click here to see detailed information about the question of (El Nino comming in 2014?)

[Ntxw]

Good stuff from Dr. Ventrice. He truly is one of the best when it comes to the MJO. A lot of the discussion has been talked about here in this thread so glad to see a pro sees what we are seeing.

[TheProfessor]

I have never heard of a super El Nino. Could someone tell me what the difference would be for Texas and the southern plains if the El Nino was a strong El Nino vs. a super El Nino

[cycloneye]

The tweets about ENSO are going wild in past days.Here are a couple between Dr Eric Blake (NHC forecaster) and Dr Michael Ventrice.


Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 29 min
@MJVentrice s thermocline looks like a blend of Feb 2002/1997. This event has a lot of potential.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 26 min
@EricBlake12 thanks al for input. I agree Eric, especially with favorable atmosphere next week

[cycloneye]

Look what is going on in Western Pacific with the TPW. West wind burst in action.

[WeatherGuesser]

Anybody care to translate this into English?

For the center sections of the US, are we talking warmer, cooler, wetter, drier .... ?

What other effects are being suggested? Lists of previous dates don't really mean much as most people don't remember specific weather by year.

[Ntxw]

Anybody care to translate this into English?

For the center sections of the US, are we talking warmer, cooler, wetter, drier .... ?

What other effects are being suggested? Lists of previous dates don't really mean much as most people don't remember specific weather by year.

El Nino summers and winters tends to be wetter and colder than average for the eastern half of the US as well as the southwest. The northern 1/3rd to half tends to be dry and mild. The past 2 years in a large scale have featured very little extreme events (storms). If we start to see El Nino (especially the bigger ones) likely flooding and bigger storms will mean more significant impact events.