Expert forecasts for 2014 N Atl Hurricane season

#41 Postby **tolakram** » Sat Feb 15, 2014 12:24 pm

In my opinion, if we have an el nino Atlantic instability will increase, and while the overall numbers will be low I bet we have a major.

ninel conde · #42 Postby **ninel conde** » Sat Feb 15, 2014 5:11 pm

2 straight years without a major would be amazing. been a long time now since the MDR was productive.

dexterlabio · #43 Postby **dexterlabio** » Sat Feb 15, 2014 8:28 pm

tolakram wrote:In my opinion, if we have an el nino Atlantic instability will increase, and while the overall numbers will be low I bet we have a major.

Agreed. This season could see much lower quantity of tropical cyclones (depending how strong EN would be, if it forms) but there could always be a Hurricane Bill or Andrew.

ninel conde · #44 Postby **ninel conde** » Sun Feb 16, 2014 7:14 am

im thinking 1983 for now which was 4/3/1. i think 4/1/0 seems more likely which would be a record low ACE of below 17. i dont think i have ever seen the atlantic so stable.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... t_THDV.gif

#45 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Feb 16, 2014 3:33 pm

ninel conde wrote:im thinking 1983 for now which was 4/3/1. i think 4/1/0 seems more likely which would be a record low ACE of below 17. i dont think i have ever seen the atlantic so stable.

Latest Atlantic basin water vapor image shows a very stable and dry atmosphere for most of the Atlantic basin (saved image):

ninel conde · #46 Postby **ninel conde** » Sun Feb 16, 2014 10:05 pm

im thinking 2013/14 will rival 1982/83 in lowest combined ace for 2 seasons in a row, 82/83 combined was 46 and i think 13/14 combined will be lower unless things drastically change by late may.

YouTube · #47 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:25 pm

You guys do know that it is FEBRUARY right? Just wanted to make sure. Let's all be sure to revisit this portion of the thread on September 10 or so. I've set a reminder on the ole Google. Tick-tock.

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #48 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Tue Feb 18, 2014 6:01 pm

gatorcane wrote:
ninel conde wrote:im thinking 1983 for now which was 4/3/1. i think 4/1/0 seems more likely which would be a record low ACE of below 17. i dont think i have ever seen the atlantic so stable.

Latest Atlantic basin water vapor image shows a very stable and dry atmosphere for most of the Atlantic basin (saved image):

http://i1276.photobucket.com/albums/y47 ... 8b10fb.jpg

If it looked any different for mid-February, I would probably be a little confused.

ROCK · #49 Postby **ROCK** » Wed Feb 19, 2014 12:55 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:You guys do know that it is FEBRUARY right? Just wanted to make sure. Let's all be sure to revisit this portion of the thread on September 10 or so. I've set a reminder on the ole Google. Tick-tock.

I agree...a lot of downplaying speculation in here for a season that has not even started. :uarrow:

I have never seen the ATL this stable" lol.....its Feb...nothing you see out there now means squat.... :cheesy:

ninel conde · #50 Postby **ninel conde** » Wed Feb 19, 2014 5:35 pm

it does mean that there is no change in the multi-year pattern.

Hammy · #51 Postby **Hammy** » Thu Feb 20, 2014 7:16 pm

ninel conde wrote:it does mean that there is no change in the multi-year pattern.

If anything it is less stable than this time last year. Realistically though, what the Atlantic looks like in February is meaningless as far as hurricane season.

#52 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Feb 20, 2014 11:51 pm

What we should all be monitoring closely right now is ENSO.

Hurricaneman · #53 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Fri Feb 21, 2014 1:44 am

Kingarabian wrote:What we should all be monitoring closely right now is ENSO.

agreed, and what type of El Nino whether or not its traditional or Madoki

#54 Postby **SFLcane** » Sat Feb 22, 2014 10:11 pm

Never too early for a seasonal forecast... :0) These folks predict a busy 2014 season across the Atlantic 17 named storms 8 canes and 3 major.

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2014/01/prweb11492804.htm

#55 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Feb 22, 2014 10:19 pm

SFLcane wrote:Never too early for a seasonal forecast... :0) These folks predict a busy 2014 season across the Atlantic 17 named storms 8 canes and 3 major.

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2014/01/prweb11492804.htm

No reasoning on why they predict those numbers so sorry but it wont get to the experts list.

#56 Postby **Andrew92** » Sun Feb 23, 2014 1:14 pm

cycloneye wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Never too early for a seasonal forecast... :0) These folks predict a busy 2014 season across the Atlantic 17 named storms 8 canes and 3 major.

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2014/01/prweb11492804.htm

No reasoning on why they predict those numbers so sorry but it wont get to the experts list.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Not to mention, looking at the ENSO thread, there are just way too many signs that an El Nino may well be on its way. True, 2012 looked kind of similar and petered out, but we are absolutely due or overdue for an episode. If it turns out to be a Modoki, I could see where 17 storms with 8 hurricanes comes from. Otherwise, it will probably take a season like 2002 to get numbers like those. I would be very intrigued to hear an ACE prediction from David Dilley, which could give more insight to what the storms indeed will be like.

I could see that prediction coming true in 2015, but that's for another day. We need to worry about 2014 right now, and if the El Nino continues to develop as it appears, I don't see how the Atlantic is going to be very active this year. However, that does not mean anyone should let their guard down, as it only takes one big one to make a season, and it is rare to go two straight years without a hurricane strike. Consider also that such a streak just recently happened in 2009 and 2010, and I still think a hurricane will reach the US this year, even if it's "just" a category 1.

-Andrew92

#57 Postby **Alyono** » Tue Feb 25, 2014 7:02 am

cycloneye wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Never too early for a seasonal forecast... :0) These folks predict a busy 2014 season across the Atlantic 17 named storms 8 canes and 3 major.

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2014/01/prweb11492804.htm

No reasoning on why they predict those numbers so sorry but it wont get to the experts list.

It should absolutely go on the list.Not including it because the method is proprietary is wrong.

The true evaluation of their method is that companies actually pay for their forecasts

#58 Postby **tolakram** » Tue Feb 25, 2014 10:43 am

cycloneye wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Never to early for a seasonal forecast... :0) These folks predict a busy 2014 season across the Atlantic 17 named storms 8 canes and 3 major.

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2014/01/prweb11492804.htm

No reasoning on why they predict those numbers so sorry but it wont get to the experts list.

I think it should go on the list. I don't think they're right, but they have a method and did get the call right last year.

#59 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Feb 25, 2014 1:27 pm

That firm has been added to the list.

#60 Postby **Alyono** » Tue Feb 25, 2014 1:42 pm

prweb is not the forecasting agency. Global Weather Oscillations is

Expert forecasts for 2014 N Atl Hurricane season

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