Texas Winter 2013-2014

[natlib]

What a fun run of the GFS huh? Big ridge in Alaska and storms digging into the west coast. Classic look dragging that trough east back southwest, usually spells mischief. Got to love southwest lows spinning behind cold air masses.

When would we see this sir???

[wxman57]

Models (GFS & Euro deterministic & ensembles) continue to back away from any significant cold or winter weather in northeast Texas next week or the week after. While the air will be colder than normal, "normal" in March isn't what it was in January. I still don't see a freeze for Houston in the works.

[Ntxw]

I see no zonal flow, just a lot of blocking and cold air discharging out of Alaska and Canada, you can trust the surface of the deterministic at your own risk, wall to wall this will end up one of the coldest Nov to March period when done likely matching or surpassing 95-96. ENS and CFSv2 continues to push cold anomalies west from a few days ago.

[Ntxw]

What a fun run of the GFS huh? Big ridge in Alaska and storms digging into the west coast. Classic look dragging that trough east back southwest, usually spells mischief. Got to love southwest lows spinning behind cold air masses.

When would we see this sir???

First week of March is what the model had. After split flow ensues

Daily SOI is -16, 30 day SOI is approaching 0 and will likely go negative in a week or so, stormy signal

[wxman57]

I see no zonal flow, just a lot of blocking and cold air discharging out of Alaska and Canada, you can trust the surface of the deterministic at your own risk, wall to wall this will end up one of the coldest Nov to March period when done likely matching or surpassing 95-96. ENS and CFSv2 continues to push cold anomalies west from a few days ago.

ECMWF ensembles have the Polar vortex over Hudson Bay over the next 5-7 days then it moves NE of Hudson Bay and weakens. Meanwhile, the jet stream heads east into California and straight across the U.S. by the end of February as the Polar vortex winds down NE of Hudson Bay. I would consider flow from California to the Mid Atlantic Coast as zonal flow. Meanwhile, EC ensembles have an 850mb temp anomaly of -5 to -6C across NE TX by days 6-7 then gradual warming. Still mostly below normal by a few degrees through 15 days, but no bitter cold or winter weather indicated.

The Euro ensemble mean doesn't even have a freeze for Dallas-Ft. Worth through 240 hrs. The deterministic run is colder, with a low of 28F on the 27th and 30F on the 1st. I think NE Texas will certainly see a few more freezes in the next couple of weeks, but mid teens and 1.5" freezing rain (as the GFS predicted earlier this week) isn't very likely. It's been a very cold winter, I don't dispute that. But it's coming to an end soon (I hope).

I can't post the Euro ensemble data (from WeatherBELL) here, but you can take a look at them if you have a subscription.

[TheProfessor]

I'm not going to believe the temperatures until we are five days out. By then we should know where the blocking will take place.

[Ntxw]

I see no zonal flow, just a lot of blocking and cold air discharging out of Alaska and Canada, you can trust the surface of the deterministic at your own risk, wall to wall this will end up one of the coldest Nov to March period when done likely matching or surpassing 95-96. ENS and CFSv2 continues to push cold anomalies west from a few days ago.

ECMWF ensembles have the Polar vortex over Hudson Bay over the next 5-7 days then it moves NE of Hudson Bay and weakens. Meanwhile, the jet stream heads east into California and straight across the U.S. by the end of February as the Polar vortex winds down NE of Hudson Bay. I would consider flow from California to the Mid Atlantic Coast as zonal flow. Meanwhile, EC ensembles have an 850mb temp anomaly of -5 to -6C across NE TX by days 6-7 then gradual warming. Still mostly below normal by a few degrees through 15 days, but no bitter cold or winter weather indicated.

The Euro ensemble mean doesn't even have a freeze for Dallas-Ft. Worth through 240 hrs. The deterministic run is colder, with a low of 28F on the 27th and 30F on the 1st. I think NE Texas will certainly see a few more freezes in the next couple of weeks, but mid teens and 1.5" freezing rain (as the GFS predicted earlier this week) isn't very likely. It's been a very cold winter, I don't dispute that. But it's coming to an end soon (I hope).

I can't post the Euro ensemble data (from WeatherBELL) here, but you can take a look at them if you have a subscription.

I don't agree it is zonal flow. Zonal flow is an Alaskan trough that digs into the GOA, low heights over NW NA and a firehose is sent into the Pac NW like we just saw. Lower heights above higher heights below. The coming pattern is blocking up top and storms ripped from Aleutian low forced to dig south because warm air isnt allowed into the source region of Western Canada, hence El-Nino like split flow thus SoCal finally gets wet.

[gboudx]

Looks like a bet is in order. Zonal or non-zonal

[Ntxw]

Looks like a bet is in order. Zonal or non-zonal

There's no need to bet for next week . Even wxman can't say that's zonal, massive blocking in the EPO, it's the pattern following to begin March being discussed. Next week the east of the rockies is going back to winter. But it's a dry cold unless something sneaks up from the tropics.

[Ntxw]

If you haven't visited the ENSO thread now is a good time. Links to Jeff Master's blog (Mike Ventrice's discussion) on the reshuffling of the Pacific for potential big nino event. Sums up well what has been discussed in that thread the past month, today's post is a cheat sheet :p

[cycloneye]

If you haven't visited the ENSO thread now is a good time. Links to Jeff Master's blog (Mike Ventrice's discussion) on the reshuffling of the Pacific for potential big nino event. Sums up well what has been discussed in that thread the past month, today's post is a cheat sheet :p

That is right. Is a must read analysis.ENSO Thread

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The new GFS is a must see. Showing what i think is another ice event for SE Tx.

[Texas Snowman]

Popcorn time!!!

[ronyan]

The new GFS is a must see. Showing what i think is another ice event for SE Tx.

The last couple runs of the GFS have been trending colder in the 5-6 day time frame. Things are starting to look interesting for next week.

[TheProfessor]

Is it still showing precip for North Texas?

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing anything in the 12Z GFS to indicate winter weather in NE or SE TX for the next 2 weeks. Possibly some cold light rain next week.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I don't have acces to models right now, only on my phone. I did a last minute check of the 12z and it showed 925 temps below freezing for most of Tx and precip rolling through at about 126 hours.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

A 1050MB high crashing into the plains will surely bring below freezing temps to us!

[Texas Snowman]

Not according to our lovable Heat Miser!

Poor fellow. He's had a rough, rough winter.

[TheProfessor]

He has had a rough winter. Hopefully next winter will be even worst for him!