Isabel and the NW turn...

obxhurricane · #21 Postby **obxhurricane** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 12:24 pm

Yes of course, let's sign the peace treaty! I did not mean to offend anyone with my "bold statement"(although I don't look at it as bold). I have a knack for saying what's on my mind...and right now my mind says Isabel is not going to Florida.

But yes...as I said earlier...you should all stay alert until the all clear is sounded...and hopefully for you it will be sounded. By the way...My mother lives in Central Florida near Lady Lake.

JCT777 · #22 Postby **JCT777** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 1:17 pm

obx - I think there is the possibility this could be a mid-Atlantic storm, but FL, GA and SC need to keep watching this. And there is nothing wrong with posting your opinion about where the storm will track. Keep up the good work! 8-)

ColdFront77 · #23 Postby **ColdFront77** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 4:54 pm

obxhurricane wrote:Yes of course, let's sign the peace treaty! I did not mean to offend anyone with my "bold statement"(although I don't look at it as bold). I have a knack for saying what's on my mind...and right now my mind says Isabel is not going to Florida.

But yes...as I said earlier...you should all stay alert until the all clear is sounded...and hopefully for you it will be sounded. By the way...My mother lives in Central Florida near Lady Lake.

I also believe there is a chance of Isabel making it to the Florida east coast. The TPC/NHC official forecast track puts it 400 miles east of the Melbourne area next week.

And by the way, I am near Lady Lake as well!

Rainband · #24 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 4:58 pm

obxhurricane wrote:I'll repeat what I said a few days ago...coastal raker from Hatteras to Long Island. I'm still convinced. I'm very surprised anyone is still talking about Florida. Florida will never see this cane.

I do not see Professional met on your avatar!!! Please DONT make statements like that on this board... Anything is possible with Isabel.. The experts don't know where she is going. I trust I have made my point?? Thanks :wink:

obxhurricane · #25 Postby **obxhurricane** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 5:40 pm

The experts know where Isabel is going...they're just still in CYA mode.
And yes, I do not have professional met on my avatar...but I've been forecasting tropical cyclones for a long time.

Rainband · #26 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 5:45 pm

obxhurricane wrote:The experts know where Isabel is going...they're just still in CYA mode.
And yes, I do not have professional met on my avatar...but I've been forecasting tropical cyclones for a long time.

Really???? GIVEN THE DIVERGENCE OF THE MODELS AT 120
HR...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE WHICH PARTS...IF ANY...OF
EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES MAY GET AFFECTED BY ISABEL.

Is that CYA mode :lol:

Josephine96 · #27 Postby **Josephine96** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 5:49 pm

lol.. I still think Isabel likes the sun and waves of Florida {gives look of worry}

obxhurricane · #28 Postby **obxhurricane** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 5:53 pm

Okay then...I change my original statement to "Isabel will hit the Carolina's and New England after hitting Florida!

Does that make everyone happy?

Sheesh...the "experts" get paid to CYA...I get paid to give my honest opinion, and I'm never afraid to give it.

Rainband · #29 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 5:56 pm

obxhurricane wrote:Okay then...I change my original statement to "Isabel will hit the Carolina's and New England after hitting Florida!

Does that make everyone happy?

Sheesh...the "experts" get paid to CYA...I get paid to give my honest opinion, and I'm never afraid to give it.

Nope..I don't want that Monster any where near my state!!! :wink:

#30 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 6:07 pm

VB...it really has to do with strength of the storm and size. Izzy is strong but not overly big. Storms like Allen and Gilbert did this sort of thing. Andrew didn't. IT has to do with how much energy they can produce through latent heat release.

AS for florida...some are -removed- and I don't think this is a Florida storm. A WNW-NW motion in 3-4 days appears likely. What also appears likely is an eventual US landfall. Where is the question. The up the coast scenerio where everyone from HAt to Long ISland gets some of the action is not out of the question.

Rainband · #31 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 6:15 pm

Air Force Met wrote:VB...it really has to do with strength of the storm and size. Izzy is strong but not overly big. Storms like Allen and Gilbert did this sort of thing. Andrew didn't. IT has to do with how much energy they can produce through latent heat release.

AS for florida...some are -removed- and I don't think this is a Florida storm. A WNW-NW motion in 3-4 days appears likely. What also appears likely is an eventual US landfall. Where is the question. The up the coast scenerio where everyone from HAt to Long ISland gets some of the action is not out of the question.

You'd have to be a moron to wish for this :roll:

Josephine96 · #32 Postby **Josephine96** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 6:16 pm

I don't believe anybody's "-removed-".. It's just gut intuition..

#33 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 6:18 pm

ditto, john!!

Josephine96 · #34 Postby **Josephine96** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 6:22 pm

Like for me.. I'm not -removed- this thing to Florida.. I just have the gut feeling that it's gonna slam us..

What a way to introduce me to major hurricanes lol.. I was up here for Andrew so didn't get a direct hit.. Isabel would probably chew me up and spit me out lol

wxfan · #35 Postby **wxfan** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 6:35 pm

This is my first post so please be gentle :wink:

Reading all of these posts is really informative and the dialogue that goes back and forth is better than anything you could hear on the tv weather reports, etc.....I have been reading alot about looking at the trends of the models as a more appropriate analysis of where a storm might be going (rather than fixating on one particular point the latest run of a model may show)...makes sense to me...but as this storm tortures us all by inching towards the coast, I can't help but think it would be both informative, and might even help to put some of the passionate (you've got me hooked) dialogue in perspective, to do an analysis of expected landfall location (or fish) vs. where the person making the prediction lives.....I am thinking we would see a remarkably high correlation between the two.

I live 2 miles from the ocean in Fort Lauderdale so, according to my hypothesis, I guess you can conclude where I anticipate landfall... :wink:

Thanks for the great dialogue.....this sure beats taking about SAL.

obxhurricane · #36 Postby **obxhurricane** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 6:36 pm

Thank you Air Force Met for helping me out a little.

While we're on this topic I have a question for everyone. Can someone please tell me when was the last time a hurricane made landfall along the Florida East coast during the month of September. And maybe how many during the past 100 years if someone has the info.

obxhurricane · #37 Postby **obxhurricane** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 6:43 pm

For the record I never once said Fabian would make landfall here.
I DO NOT WISH CAST.

Looking at all the model guidance we have today shows a clear weakness near 75 W through the period. That...plus the expected trough to devlop over the mid section of the country in later periods leads me to believe landfall near Hatteras with a northward movement from there.

All of the indications are there. The UKMET even adjusted it's track further east today with an extrapolated landfall near Wilminton after indicating Hugo like landfall at Charleston last night. The Nogaps also has a northward movement at days 5 and six. The 18Z ETA(for some reason teh NCEP decided to use this model today...don't know why as the tropics are kind of our of the realm of the ETA) even shows a NW motion between 60 and 84 hours. Add all of that to the GFS and GFDL solutions
and you get really only one scenario...a recurve between 70-75 W.

It's not -removed-...it's just looking at the available data and coming up with the most likely track.

Rainband · #38 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 6:46 pm

obxhurricane wrote:While we're on this topic I have a question for everyone. Can someone please tell me when was the last time a hurricane made landfall along the Florida East coast during the month of September. And maybe how many during the past 100 years if someone has the info.

What would that prove exactly??? :roll:

#39 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 6:49 pm

I guess he just wants to be informed, like most of us!

Josephine96 · #40 Postby **Josephine96** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 6:50 pm

EXACTLY.. lol.. Information is the key... Look I'm 1 post from 400

Isabel and the NW turn...

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