ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[stormkite]

SOI is well into the positive.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

SOI is well into the positive.

This is an old report. The latest SOI 30-day average is at +2.7 and is rapidly going down. This was probably before reaching its highest peak [late JAN/early FEB].

[dexterlabio]

Actually the 30-day SOI is now at 1.3

The daily's have been increasingly negative for the past two days, going down to -23.2 yesterday.



I have an amateur question, what does the pressure in Darwin and in Tahiti have to do with the strong MJO/Kelvin wave and warming up of sea surface, as well as the strengthening westerlies? It's interesting to note that all these factors are correlated.

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,I have a question about having twin cyclones at the same time. Right now there are two invests out there,91P in the Southern Hemisphere and the other 93W in the Northern Hemisphere. My question is,what impact it has on ENSO if both develop into cyclones?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw,I have a question about having twin cyclones at the same time. Right now there are two invests out there,91P in the Southern Hemisphere and the other 93W in the Northern Hemisphere. My question is,what impact it has on ENSO if both develop into cyclones?

I have an amateur question, what does the pressure in Darwin and in Tahiti have to do with the strong MJO/Kelvin wave and warming up of sea surface, as well as the strengthening westerlies? It's interesting to note that all these factors are correlated.

Good morning guys! Both of these questions seems to be related. Neither (from what I know) is really a cause but is a result. Pressures in Darwin and Tahiti can tell us where major convection is located also known as the MJO/Kelvin wave. When convection is closer to Darwin, lower pressures here and higher in Tahiti relative to average, that's La Nina phases of the MJO in Indonesia which favors cooling of the Pacific. When convection is in the Pacific, Tahiti lower pressures and Darwin is higher relative to average, that means the MJO is in the Nino phases and westerlies are abound in the big Ocean favoring warming of ENSO.

I'm not too in depth with twin cyclones but I think they are a result of the MJO being active in the Pacific and is a signal that the wave is very strong to induce cyclones in both hemispheres. We see this sometimes in the Indian Ocean when the MJO is strong that way. Those cyclones probably is a sign of further strengthening of the westerlies.

[Ntxw]

Speaking of MJO, this wave means business. It is very powerful and will push east, probably altering the surface SST's in ENSO the coming weeks

[cycloneye]

Speaking of MJO, this wave means business. It is very powerful and will push east, probably altering the surface SST's in ENSO the coming weeks

http://i57.tinypic.com/205opf.gif

http://i59.tinypic.com/mt1jzp.gif

Is fascinating to watch all the players do their thing as time goes by.People don't see yet any real effects of the warming but in a few weeks it will be a different story. Thanks for the answer to the twin cyclone question.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The PDO doesn't look like it's wanting to cooperate much, it's taken on more of a negative-state appearance the last few days (keeping in mind that the high pressure in the NE Pacific, and warmer waters accordingly, have been farther east than usual for the past year):

[Ntxw]

That looks like a very weak positive to neutral PDO in the northern hemisphere. Warmer waters off the coast of Alaska horsehoe down the western coast of NA and cooler waters from the wpac w and nw of Hawaii. It's not a strong +PDO state but its not the cold waters off GOA and Cal cold PDO. The southern hemisphere looks cold PDO but waters off Australia is cooling

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_ ... scillation

[CaliforniaResident]

:uarrow: That looks like a very weak positive to neutral PDO in the northern hemisphere. Warmer waters off the coast of Alaska horsehoe down the western coast of NA and cooler waters from the wpac w and nw of Hawaii. It's not a strong +PDO state but its not the cold waters off GOA and Cal cold PDO. The southern hemisphere looks cold PDO but waters off Australia is cooling

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_ ... scillation

Does that mean the El Nino may not happen? I was looking forward to some actual "weather" for my final year in California.

[cycloneye]

Interesting graphic by Levi Cowan of some analogs that were precursors of El Nino. I asked him via twitter why the 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 ones were not included.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 12 min Best SST analogs for Jan. show El Nino developing by May, but look at warm water off eastern seaboard for hrcn season

Luis Martinez ‏@tropicspr · 18 min
@TropicalTidbits Hi Levi. You didn't include the 1982-83 and 1997-1998 ones.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 7 min
@tropicspr They are not top analogs when looking at the overall SST pattern. This does not include the sub-surface so won't pick up K-waves.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The image is a good example of what I was trying to point out earlier. We're not in a +PDO, it just has the illusion of such because the NE Pacific ridge is shifted northeast relative to average.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: The image is a good example of what I was trying to point out earlier. We're not in a +PDO, it just has the illusion of such because the NE Pacific ridge is shifted northeast relative to average.

What is your opinion on the January + reading? The NE Pac ridge has been there since early last year and we mostly had - readings with it, including Dec with a stronger ridge. What caused the January reading to be the highest since the Nino of 09/10?

[Ntxw]

Going through the animation of TAO/Triton it's pretty neat how this warm pool has evolved. It compares well to near the peak of some Nino's yet this pool is very early in the year compared to any we have seen since 97 or 02. Most get going much later into June and July.

Typically the 6C starts popping up as it reaches 140W on it's way up the thermocline. Will this feature the same? 5C area has been expanding the last couple of days.







I really hope NOAA or one of the agencies starts investing in the buoys for this region. It's invaluable data that we really need! These outages can be difficult.

[Ntxw]

Interesting graphic by Levi Cowan of some analogs that were precursors of El Nino. I asked him via twitter why the 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 ones were not included.

[b]Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 12 min Best SST analogs for Jan. show El Nino developing by May, but look at warm water off eastern seaboard for hrcn season

Luis Martinez ‏@tropicspr · 18 min
@TropicalTidbits Hi Levi. You didn't include the 1982-83 and 1997-1998 ones.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 7 min
@tropicspr They are not top analogs when looking at the overall SST pattern. This does not include the sub-surface so won't pick up K-waves.

I agree 82-83 and 97-98 are not good analogs, these were raging +PDO decades. Even though we saw a +PDO reading and even if we see + readings the rest of this year it doesn't mean the PDO is in the positive state overall as it is a multiyear index. Some good SST analog for Nino's that may fit would be the 57-58 and perhaps 72-73 if we are talking about a strong Nino. Those were +PDO spikes due to ENSO in an overall -PDO era similar to the Pacific state now. I wish we had more data on the 72-73 Nino, If I had to pick a year it would be that one.

[cycloneye]

30 day SOI down on Febuary 23 to +2.2. Since Febuary 8 when it peaked at +14.5 it has been going down.

[crownweather]

While I do think that this hurricane season will be affected significantly by the El Nino, especially on the back end of the season, it's the front end that may be "interesting". I know we are comparing apples to oranges but the two analog years that are mentioned, 1957 and 1972 had significant tropical cyclone activity in June. Audrey in June of 1957 and Agnes in June of 1972 even though the numbers of both years were around 7 to 8 named storms. As the saying goes, it only takes one storm to make a season memorable.

Also, February of 1970 has been popping up a lot in the 6-10/8-14 day 500 mb analog comparisons. I got curious and looked up the 1970 season and found a 10 named storm season with one significant hurricane landfall, Celia in late July.



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Interesting graphic by Levi Cowan of some analogs that were precursors of El Nino. I asked him via twitter why the 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 ones were not included.

[b]Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 12 min Best SST analogs for Jan. show El Nino developing by May, but look at warm water off eastern seaboard for hrcn season

Luis Martinez ‏@tropicspr · 18 min
@TropicalTidbits Hi Levi. You didn't include the 1982-83 and 1997-1998 ones.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 7 min
@tropicspr They are not top analogs when looking at the overall SST pattern. This does not include the sub-surface so won't pick up K-waves.

I agree 82-83 and 97-98 are not good analogs, these were raging +PDO decades. Even though we saw a +PDO reading and even if we see + readings the rest of this year it doesn't mean the PDO is in the positive state overall as it is a multiyear index. Some good SST analog for Nino's that may fit would be the 57-58 and perhaps 72-73 if we are talking about a strong Nino. Those were +PDO spikes due to ENSO in an overall -PDO era similar to the Pacific state now. I wish we had more data on the 72-73 Nino, If I had to pick a year it would be that one.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 2/24/14 update

No big news in this update as Nino 3.4 warms up slightly from last weeks data from -0.5C to -0.4C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

While I do think that this hurricane season will be affected significantly by the El Nino, especially on the back end of the season, it's the front end that may be "interesting". I know we are comparing apples to oranges but the two analog years that are mentioned, 1957 and 1972 had significant tropical cyclone activity in June. Audrey in June of 1957 and Agnes in June of 1972 even though the numbers of both years were around 7 to 8 named storms. As the saying goes, it only takes one storm to make a season memorable.

Very interesting Rob what you bring to the ENSO discussion.Let's see what occurs.

[cycloneye]

The twin cyclone event may take place by next week.Here is what Ryan Maue says about this that was my question earlier in the thread.

Ryan Adam Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 15 min
GFS 12z spins up West Pac typhoon & South Pacific cyclone.
That'll help with westerly wind along Equator +5 days