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Hurricaneman
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#8321 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Feb 23, 2014 5:10 pm

I can almost guarantee you that this will be a confirmed tornado taken from Daytona International Speedway towards the SW

http://tapatalk.com/tapatalk_image.php? ... Yi5qcGc%3D
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Re: Florida Weather

#8322 Postby Sanibel » Mon Feb 24, 2014 5:23 pm

Near 80* and sunny every day here. No winter to speak of this year.
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#8323 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:49 am

Yesterday saw the end to the meteorological winter of 2013-14 and I wanted to take a brief moment to summarize.

Warmer and wetter than normal for sure! This winter, we never saw any period in which the NAO dipped to negative. Also, the PNA remained negative for the most part this meteorological winter, and this bought about anomalous height rises above 500 mb across the SE U.S. and SW Atlantic. We saw one of the warmest Decembers on record across the Florida peninsula and no freezes were measured at my locale. December was also a very dry month as well with the pesky SE U.S. Ridge which was parked in place across the region.

Then the pattern finally changed at the start of January as the PNA reverted to positive, as height rises commenced across the Eastern Pacific, the Western U.S. and the Gulf of Alaska. This finally allowed some intrusions of arctic air into North and Central Florida. In addition, the southern stream jet also became active in January which helped in bringing the SE U.S. 2 major winter storms. It even bought portions of the panhandle and northern peninsula a bit of wintry precip with each storm.

February remained very mild/warm overall as the PNA mostly reverted to negative, but the southern stream remained quite active. There were a few disturbances (shortwaves) that came across the GOM and moved across the peninsula, which bought heavy rain into the north and central peninsula.

Overall, only 8 days of temperatures reaching 32 degrees or lower occured at my locale, with six of those days in January. This ending up being only 1/2 of the average number of total freezes in Jax for a typical winter season, which is 16. Also, just over 8 inches of rainfall have been measured at my locale from Dec 1 through yesterday. Considering that generally this is the driest time of the season in this region, that rainfall total is quite impressive.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sat Mar 01, 2014 1:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#8324 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Mar 01, 2014 11:16 am

Speaking about the southern jet stream, a really big, significant storm appears likely in the Thursday-Friday of this upcoming week. Severe weather and heavy rainfall looks to be a very good possibility across the peninsula as a significant Low Pressure system is forecast to move from the Northern GOM and across North Florida during the latter part of next week. This will be quite a dynamical system and definitely warrants close monitoring heading into next week. GFS 500 mb vorticity out 138 hr shows an impressive deep upper level cold pocket vort centered right along LA/MS coast.

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#8325 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:13 pm

Latest EURO 144hr shows a deepening 998 mb Low sitting just about over me . This set up promises to bring a possible severe weather event across much of Florida, and there could be enough cold air wedged along the Lee of the Appalachians to bring wintry precip to Northern GA and the Carolinas late this upcoming week should the EURO verify..


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Re: Florida Weather

#8326 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:11 pm

I guess it depends on the track of the low on any severe weather down here.

Long term (tuesday-saturday)... the long range models are still somewhat divergent in the weather for the middle to end of next week. The latest GFS model is still showing low pressure developing in the southeastern United States and moving northeast into the Middle Atlantic States pushing a cold front through South Florida Thursday night. However...the latest European model (ecmwf) model is now showing the low developing in the northern Gulf of Mexico and moving across North Florida on Thursday pushing the cold front through the area Thursday afternoon. So at this time...the probability of precipitation will be raised to high end chance over the northern areas Thursday afternoon with all of South Florida seeing chance probability of precipitation Thursday night.
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Re: Florida Weather

#8327 Postby sammy126 » Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:14 pm

Have question: Does the winter weather season have any affect on the hurricane season? Its been a rough winter for a lot of people just wondering if that's what we have to look forward to this upcoming hurricane season. I have read a few predictions for the upcoming season.
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Re: Florida Weather

#8328 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:24 pm

Don't think so. The signals now have really no effect on the signals in June. Everything changes in the world of weather as we found out last hurricane season. :eek:
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Re: Florida Weather

#8329 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Mar 03, 2014 12:50 am

NWS Melbourne discussion from Sunday afternoon

WED-THU...12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT INTENSITY
DIFFERENCES ESP AT 500 MB (ECMWF HAS TRENDED DEEPER/STRONGER ONCE
AGAIN) BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM STILL
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA.

AS SFC LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WRN-CTRL GOMEX...ONSHORE WINDS
VEER FROM E-NE WED MORNING TO SE OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN. SFC LOW DEEPENS TO SUB-1010MB JUST SOUTH OF PENSACOLA
BY THU MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN (~1004MB) AS IT MOVES EWD
INTO THE FL BIG BAND BY SUNSET...THEN ACROSS THE STATE AND UP THE
EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD STARTING EARLY FRIDAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY... COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS POINTS TO POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OF STRONG/SVR
STORMS IN THE THU AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DECENT CONSISTENCY/CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECM OVER
THE PAST 3 DAYS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN USUAL IN SOME MAGNITUDE
OF AN EVENT IMPACT...EVEN THOUGH IT IS 4 DAYS OUT.
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Re: Florida Weather

#8330 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Mon Mar 03, 2014 5:52 pm

Still don't know how severe it will get down here but i'm sure west and north of me will have some severe weather.

Long term (thursday-Sunday night)... a weak area of low pressure over the Gulf, will move to the northeast and encounter a baroclinic zone at 850mb across North Florida and extending into the Gulf just south of New Orleans. As the low interacts with this zone, it will begin to strengthen. Models are differing by a few hours as to when it will become a closed low, but both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) have the low moving across north central Florida and the jax area by Thursday morning and continuing to strengthen through the day Thursday. As it does, it will spread some rain showers towards South Florida. There is a question of timing for the showers to begin and their coverage across the County Warning Area. The European model (ecmwf) has a cold front developing by middle day Thursday and moving through South Florida by Thursday afternoon. The GFS is about 6 hours behind. Looking at the European model (ecmwf) solution, there could be a large area of showers with some embedded thunderstorms. With extensive cloud cover possible if this happens, insolation would be minimized, which would lower the threat of thunderstorm development, as well as the threat of strong storms. However, this will greatly depend on how the low develops and the track it takes. Looking at the GFS solution, the frontal passage would be delayed a few hours, which would make for less cloudy skies for a good part of the day Thursday. This could potentially destabilize the atmosphere enough to get afternoon convection going, even before the dynamics of the front come into play. Also, with cloud cover moving in later in the day, it could keep surface temperatures fairly warm ahead of the front. Also, there is a 250 mb jet, with speeds of 110-120 kts, moving across central Florida by 06z Friday. This could help to support convective development later in the night. This could lead to some strong thunderstorm development. Given the uncertainty of the timing and coverage, have kept high end chance probability of precipitation for the area mainly north of i75, and slightly lower probability of precipitation south of that area.
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Re: Florida Weather

#8331 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Mar 03, 2014 6:56 pm

NWS Melbourne afternoon discussion

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY WED NIGHT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND INDUCE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
BOTH 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING FASTER BUT ALSO A BIT WEAKER
WITH THE SFC LOW. SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS (40 PERCENT) ACROSS
THE NORTH WED NIGHT.

THU/THU NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE
WITH A POS TILT AND BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING TOWARD
DEEPENING THE SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SE US COAST AS OPPOSED TO THE
NE GULF/FL BIG BEND. THERE REMAINS A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STRONG
STORMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE PUSHING EAST
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THU. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY NOT BE
AS STRONG OR AS BACKED AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT WHICH WOULD REDUCE
THE SEVERE THREAT. BUT THINK THAT AT LEAST A PORTION OF EC FL WILL
BE HIGHLIGHTED IN SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK EARLY TOMORROW AS THERE
SHOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE. WITH THE LATEST FASTER
SCENARIO... SHOWER CHANCES LIKELY ENDING IN THE EVENING.
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Re: Florida Weather

#8332 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Tue Mar 04, 2014 7:18 am

Spc outlook for 3 days:

SPC AC 040821

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CST TUE MAR 04 2014

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL PENINSULA...
A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NRN GULF COAST
VICINITY AND NRN FL BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE SWRN NORTH ATLANTIC
WATERS. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO AS A
STRONG JET MAX WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH GLANCES AN ANTECEDENT
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE NEWD TRANSPORT OF RICHER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE/BOUNDARY-LAYER THETA-E WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S SPREADING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA S OF A FRONTOGENETIC BOUNDARY
ENHANCED BY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA THROUGH THE DAY...AS ASCENT PRECEDING THE TROUGH IS
ENHANCED BY SMALLER-SCALE LEADING PERTURBATIONS AMIDST A MODEST WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR BENEATH A
40-70-KT H5 JET CORE AMIDST CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH PW /AOA 1.5
INCHES/ AND MARGINAL BUOYANCY...CONVECTION ORGANIZED IN SQUALL LINES
AND PERHAPS A FEW MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES COULD ENSUE WITH
ATTENDANT RISKS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
TORNADOES.

HOWEVER...CATEGORICAL SVR DESIGNATION -- I.E. SLIGHT RISK -- HAS NOT
BEEN INCLUDED OWING TO SEVERAL FACTORS:
/1/ SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE MORE
POSITIVELY/NEUTRALLY TILTED TROUGH ORIENTATION WOULD NOW FAVOR
STRONGER SFC CYCLOGENESIS INVOF THE GULF STREAM OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. IN TURN...THIS COULD TEND TO DECREASE PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER THE FL PENINSULA AS THE FLOW VEERS WHILE ALSO
REDUCING THE PROPENSITY FOR LOWER-LATITUDE RICHER MOISTURE TO REACH
FL.
/2/ A RELATIVELY LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH...AND A MORE
POSITIVELY/NEUTRALLY TILTED TROUGH AS DEPICTED BY SEVERAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS...COULD DECREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TROUGH-LEADING
DCVA TO PHASE WITH NWD RETURNING MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT BUOYANCY.
/3/ A LESS-AMPLIFIED TROUGH COULD TEND TO REDUCE THE DEGREE OF GULF
CYCLOGENESIS -- AND POLEWARD FLUXES OF RICHER MOISTURE -- AS THE
ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH OVERLIES COLDER/MORE STATICALLY
STABLE AIR IN THE PBL.
/4/ MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ENHANCED BY
THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE MAY BREED INLAND THETA-E DEFICITS TO REDUCE
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION BEFORE FRONTAL ASCENT ARRIVES.

DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED NEGATIVE FACTORS FOR SVR STORMS...SOME
RISK DOES EXIST...AS ADDRESSED BY MARGINAL SVR PROBABILITIES.
SLIGHT-RISK DESIGNATION MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
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Re: Florida Weather

#8333 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Mar 05, 2014 1:04 pm

Slight Risk

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CST WED MAR 05 2014

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SRN
FL...

...CNTRL THROUGH SRN FL...

RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER SRN FL AND THE CNTRL GULF. A SWLY LLJ IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE ERN GULF BY MID-DAY THURSDAY AND
SHIFT EWD INTO FL AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES PERSIST REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ OVER FL WITH
THE NAM AND SREF MEANS INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER LLJ THAN THE ECMWF
AND GFS. IN EITHER CASE...MID-UPPER FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE
DAY AS THE LEAD IMPULSE AND UPPER TROUGH ADVANCE THROUGH THE GULF
COASTAL AREA WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR INCREASING TO 40-45 KT.
RICHER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS CNTRL/SCNTRL FL TO UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S IN SOUTH FL. HOWEVER...WEAK 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 1000 J/KG...WITH
THE GREATER INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS S FL.

ORGANIZED STORMS/MCS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER THE ERN GULF
EARLY THURSDAY...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST BY
MID-DAY OR DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THE LLJ...VERTICAL WIND PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN
THREAT...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON
DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND STRENGTH OF LLJ. WHILE
A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY ULTIMATELY SERVE AS A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT...A LOWER END SLIGHT
RISK APPEARS WARRANTED.

..DIAL.. 03/05/2014


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#8334 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Mar 05, 2014 1:14 pm

Still much uncertainty concerning tomorrow's developing Low Pressure area over the Gulf of Mexico. We will know more hopefully tonight as cyclogenesis will begin late tonight over the Northern GOM area.

Latest EURO has the Low at 1004 mb crsossing my region by tomorrow evening. If the Low Pressure area turns out being a stronger dynamical system, then the threat for possible severe storms will increase across the southern peninsula.

Meanwhile, heavy rain will start beginning late tonight through tomorrow here in Jax area. Model runs are calling for up to as much as 3 inches in spots through tomorrow night as the Low Pressure area moves right over North Florida.
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Re: Florida Weather

#8335 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 05, 2014 2:50 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
228 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...
...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS FORECAST THURSDAY...
...DAMAGING WIND AND BRIEF TORNADOES POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...


CURRENT-TONIGHT...A STALLED FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE GULF WHILE MOVING EASTWARD. A GOOD FETCH
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND WILL MAKE
FOR A WARM OVERNIGHT. WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOWING OVER A
SHALLOW RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT
PROCESS THAT WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS/MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

THU...MODELS ARE BETTER DEFINING THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. MOS POPS GO FROM AROUND 60 SOUTH TO ALMOST 100
OVER THE NORTH LIMIT OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF MODEL TIMING IS
CORRECT...SHOULD BE LOOKING AT LIKELY COVERAGE EARLY IN THE MORNING
THEN RAMPING UP TO CATEGORICAL INDIAN RIVER AND OSCEOLA CO`S NORTH
BY NOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS OR HIGHER
FROM 1 TO 3 KM AGL FAVOR THE FORMATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER
THURSDAY.

THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARDS WOULD BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS...HOWEVER
HELICITY VALUES IN THE LOWEST 3KM INITIALLY ABOVE 100 SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN SOME CELLS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE ALONG THE WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ADVANCING NORTHWARD
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ONE CAN REFER TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER`S
DAY TWO OUTLOOK...SWODY2...FOR MORE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION OF THE
UPCOMING WEATHER AND OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS...HWO...FOR
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THURSDAY.
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#8336 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Mar 05, 2014 10:13 pm

WPC/HPC surface analysis shows a 1009 mb Low Pressure along the stalled out frontal boundary in the central Gulf of Mexico. Will watch closely to see how quickly this Low will intensify going through the day before it crosses North Florida later tonight.



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Re: Florida Weather

#8337 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 06, 2014 7:48 am

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 AM CST THU MAR 06 2014

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN AND CNTRL FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE LWR 48 THROUGH FRI. SRN
STREAM LOW NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX SHOULD CONTINUE ESE INTO SRN MS BY
THIS EVE...BEFORE TURNING E INTO CNTRL GA EARLY FRI. THE LOW IS
PRECEDED BY SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
DEAMPLIFY IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
FL. SCTD TO NUMEROUS TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SVR...WILL CROSS
CNTRL AND SRN FL LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TNGT AS BOTH THE LEAD
DISTURBANCES AND THE MAIN TROUGH IMPACT THE FL PENINSULA.

ELSEWHERE...UPSTREAM SRN BRANCH TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE W CST
WILL REACH NRN CA/SRN ORE THIS AFTN AND THE NRN GRT BASIN EARLY
FRI...ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR SCTD...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS.

...FL TODAY/TNGT...
LATEST SFC DATA PLACE SFC LOW ATTENDANT TO ARKLATEX UPR SYSTEM OVER
THE N CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO ATTM...WITH STNRY FRONT EXTENDING ESE
FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND THE FL PENINSULA A LITTLE N OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT NWD INTO CNTRL FL LATER
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE GRADUAL DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW AND TO THE
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION/CONSOLIDATION OF ARKLATEX UPR TROUGH.

LOW-LVL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF LEAD UPR IMPULSES...AND
UPLIFT ALONG EXISTING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...HAVE SUPPORTED
A ROBUST SW-NE ORIENTED MCS OVER THE ERN GULF OVERNIGHT. THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY ESE THROUGH MIDDAY. EMBEDDED
FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS/LOW AMPLITUDE LEWPS AND BOWS MAY
BRING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND TO THE W CST OF FL NEAR TAMPA
BY MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM AROUND THAT TIME OR A BIT
LATER FARTHER S AND E OVER THE FL PENINSULA AS DIURNAL HEATING AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES REDISTRIBUTE LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS OVER THE REGION.

AMPLE /40 TO 60 KT/ 700-500 MB WSWLY FLOW WILL EXIST IN THE WARM
SECTOR TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS GIVEN PRESENCE OF
FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE /PW AROUND 1.75 INCHES/...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AT
LEAST MODEST SFC HEATING...AND MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG.
FARTHER N...A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LVL SHEAR/ISOLD TORNADO
POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP ALONG STNRY/WARM FRONT OVER THE CNTRL PART OF
THE PENINSULA...WHERE SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID/UPR LVL FLOW ALSO WILL
EXIST. BUT THE STRONGEST/MOST SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS MAY OCCUR OVER THE
SRN THIRD OF THE STATE...WHERE THE GREATEST BUOYANCY SHOULD DEVELOP.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...BOTH EMBEDDED IN LINE
SEGMENTS/LEWPS AND ALONG SEA-BREEZE AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES...OVERALL SETUP COULD YIELD A TORNADO OR TWO IN ADDITION
TO A FEW SWATHS OF DMGG WIND.

THE SVR THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST THIS AFTN/EARLY TNGT...AND
DIMINISH AS THE UPR SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
REFORMS NEWD OFF THE GA CST LATER TNGT/EARLY FRI.

..CORFIDI/MARSH.. 03/06/2014
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northjaxpro
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#8338 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Mar 06, 2014 8:01 am

A large wall of rain approaching the Jax area early this morning. Should be at my locale by 9:30 a.m. Heavy rain on tap as upwards to 3 inches may occur in a few spots through tonight as the Low Pressure area moves across North Florida later tonight. Also, look at the shield of rain approching the Florida Gulf Coast from Cedar Key southward to Sarasota.

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Re: Florida Weather

#8339 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 06, 2014 11:18 am

Look at that squall line.

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StormingB81
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#8340 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Mar 06, 2014 11:27 am

This afternoon going to be interesting wonder how my weather radio will be this afternoon...lol if it will be loud or quiet
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