Texas Winter 2013-2014

[WeatherGuesser]

From the Houston Chronical:

Given that we’ve been more or less in drought conditions for the last five years, I asked Paul Lewis, with the Houston/Galveston office of the National Weather Service, if he would crunch the numbers to determine how dry the 2009-2013 period compared to other five-year periods in Texas.

The data Paul provided is enlightening. The graphic below shows the ten driest five- and 10-year periods on record in Texas.

http://blog.chron.com/weather/2014/02/w ... n-chances/


Chart is at the link.

[Ntxw]

From the Houston Chronical:

Given that we’ve been more or less in drought conditions for the last five years, I asked Paul Lewis, with the Houston/Galveston office of the National Weather Service, if he would crunch the numbers to determine how dry the 2009-2013 period compared to other five-year periods in Texas.

The data Paul provided is enlightening. The graphic below shows the ten driest five- and 10-year periods on record in Texas.

http://blog.chron.com/weather/2014/02/w ... n-chances/


Chart is at the link.

Thank you for posting this. It's very difficult to get numbers from the past without asking them directly. One correction is the author should clarify this is a Houston data chart and not the entire state of Texas. I did a similar comparison for DFW last month when we were talking about drought and interestingly enough the early 1900s were in there as well as the late 70s.

[South Texas Storms]

Wet and chilly weather is returning to Texas! Please check out my latest weather article for more details!
http://www.examiner.com/article/wet-and-chilly-weather-returns-to-texas

[Ntxw]

CFSv2 and GEFS continues their March (no pun intended) of below average temps. The first wave of cold, the coming one in a few days, will be chilly for many of us. You don't need me to tell you, just go outside on Weds/Thurs. Pinwheeling behind will be a second wave of cold that looks to be pinned more against the Rockies and shoot down like that classic dagger look the first week of March.



The rain this week is a lag effect of the -SOI burst last week and westerlies. A new stream of westerlies associated with the MJO will likely be another player in week 2

[ravyrn]

CFSv2 and GEFS continues their March (no pun intended) of below average temps. The first wave of cold, the coming one in a few days, will be chilly for many of us. You don't need me to tell you, just go outside on Weds/Thurs. Pinwheeling behind will be a second wave of cold that looks to be pinned more against the Rockies and shoot down like that classic dagger look the first week of March.

http://i60.tinypic.com/9swfhd.png

The rain this week is a lag effect of the -SOI burst last week and westerlies. A new stream of westerlies associated with the MJO will likely be another player in week 2

If you have the time, can you explain what is causing this cold?

[Ntxw]

If you have the time, can you explain what is causing this cold?

The East Pacific Oscillation or -EPO. Thanks to that NE Pacific warm sea surface temperature anomalies the 5h ridge has parked itself over Alaska and adjacent Canada many times this winter. When it breaks down, it pops right back up a week or two later.

Warm winters are the exact opposite, we see the +EPO (2011-2012) and what we saw last week consistently with very little -EPO. NE Pacific SST's have a cold pool with these.

[TheProfessor]

Has anyone looked at their point forecast recently? Nws FWD has a 40% chance of rain and sleet tonight.

[wxman57]

From the Fort Worth Area Forecast Discussion (AFD). My favorite part is in red.

HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A BRIEF MIXTURE OF SLEET WITH
THE TAPERING RAIN CHANCES AND DEEPER COLD AIR ACROSS AREAS ALONG/WEST
OF I-35/35E FROM THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE WARM NOSE WILL BE WELL ELEVATED NEAR 750MB AND ONLY 1-2 DEG C.
SINCE ANY LINGERING MIXTURE OF SLEET AND COLD RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY
AND VERY LIGHT...WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS FOR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE SYSTEM WOULD HAVE TO SLOW DOWN AND DO NOT
SEE THIS OCCURRING IN FAST AND CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA.
IN ADDITION...IT WILL BE COLD AND BLUSTERY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S WEST TO THE LOWER 40S EAST. WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE 20S SOUTHEAST. SKIES
WILL CLEAR MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA. A WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE IS
LIKELY.

THE CHILLY AIRMASS DOES NOT HANG AROUND LONG WITH A SHORTWAVE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDING TOWARD THE AREA. THIS WILL INDUCE LEE SIDE
PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 50S/60S. A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
PASSES OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OR SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL BRING VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HIGHS WARM INTO THE
70S MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. AN INCREASING FIRE
DANGER SETS UP AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MOIST AXIS
ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH THE BULK OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES REMAINING NORTH AND EAST OF
AREA.

[Ntxw]

Ah yes, lee cyclogenesis! Lets see if the EPO and low level cold can beat that too! How about some meteograms for DFW from the GFS wxman, the populous demands it!

[wxman57]

Looks quite miserable for Houston tomorrow, too. As for next week, just remember that last week, the GFS was forecasting mid teens in D-FW for tomorrow. That's not happening. I'll enjoy those upper 70s this coming weekend...

[gboudx]

Has anyone looked at their point forecast recently? Nws FWD has a 40% chance of rain and sleet tonight.

50% of that here, but any sleet would be after midnight. I'm not staying up in hopes of a sleet pellet or 2 may fall on my yard.

[wxman57]

Has anyone looked at their point forecast recently? Nws FWD has a 40% chance of rain and sleet tonight.

50% of that here, but any sleet would be after midnight. I'm not staying up in hopes of a sleet pellet or 2 may fall on my yard.

I think that any sleet pellets would most likely fall after sunrise tomorrow. No need to stay up late tonight. Any sleet pellets should melt fairly quickly as they hit the ground.

[dhweather]

Pretty significant change in the GFS for Sunday/Monday. It had a good rain even, now it's not so much, and it's COLD.

[wxman57]

Pretty significant change in the GFS for Sunday/Monday. It had a good rain even, now it's not so much, and it's COLD.

As much as the models are flip-flopping around from run to run I wouldn't trust them beyond about an hour. That is, unless they start forecasting warm temperatures...

[Tireman4]

Pretty significant change in the GFS for Sunday/Monday. It had a good rain even, now it's not so much, and it's COLD.

. That is, unless they start forecasting warm temperatures...

HA!. You are not going to get a warm spring sir. It will not happen. I am hoping for the coldest Summer EVA!!!!

[Portastorm]

Pretty significant change in the GFS for Sunday/Monday. It had a good rain even, now it's not so much, and it's COLD.

As much as the models are flip-flopping around from run to run I wouldn't trust them beyond about an hour. That is, unless they start forecasting warm temperatures...

I believe this is what is called a model bias. Or perhaps a forecaster bias!

The next 36 hours are going to be nasty here in Austin with cold rain but I'm not complaining. Rain = good.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Pretty significant change in the GFS for Sunday/Monday. It had a good rain even, now it's not so much, and it's COLD.

As much as the models are flip-flopping around from run to run I wouldn't trust them beyond about an hour. That is, unless they start forecasting warm temperatures...

Kind of agreeing with you there. Just yesterday morning the forecast for 70's was only for Friday then a big drop off for Saturday and Sunday, I think around 58 for Saturday and 60 for Sunday. The plans I was making for Saturday were going to be cancelled due to it being too chilly but now I think they'll be back on again.

[CaptinCrunch]

I just looked at the latest Wx Rock images, and it looks damp and chilly out right now.

[CaptinCrunch]

From the Fort Worth Area Forecast Discussion (AFD). My favorite part is in red.

HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A BRIEF MIXTURE OF SLEET WITH
THE TAPERING RAIN CHANCES AND DEEPER COLD AIR ACROSS AREAS ALONG/WEST
OF I-35/35E FROM THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE WARM NOSE WILL BE WELL ELEVATED NEAR 750MB AND ONLY 1-2 DEG C.
SINCE ANY LINGERING MIXTURE OF SLEET AND COLD RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY
AND VERY LIGHT...WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS FOR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE SYSTEM WOULD HAVE TO SLOW DOWN AND DO NOT
SEE THIS OCCURRING IN FAST AND CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA.
IN ADDITION...IT WILL BE COLD AND BLUSTERY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S WEST TO THE LOWER 40S EAST. WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE 20S SOUTHEAST. SKIES
WILL CLEAR MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA. A WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE IS
LIKELY.

THE CHILLY AIRMASS DOES NOT HANG AROUND LONG WITH A SHORTWAVE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDING TOWARD THE AREA. THIS WILL INDUCE LEE SIDE
PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 50S/60S. A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
PASSES OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OR SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL BRING VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HIGHS WARM INTO THE
70S MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. AN INCREASING FIRE
DANGER SETS UP AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MOIST AXIS
ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH THE BULK OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES REMAINING NORTH AND EAST OF
AREA.

Yes. the NWS has a forecasted high of 72 on Friday, but that 72 is sandwiched between Thursday's 57 and Saturday's 59. As a matter of fact Sunday has a high of 67 and Monday with a high of 51. So the rollercoaster continues into next week as well.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has come to its senses regarding temps in the teens for Dallas next week, and no freeze for Houston. In addition, a quite nice day on Sunday is forecast - 83 degrees!