Texas Winter 2013-2014

[dhweather]

Pretty significant change in the GFS for Sunday/Monday. It had a good rain even, now it's not so much, and it's COLD.

As much as the models are flip-flopping around from run to run I wouldn't trust them beyond about an hour. That is, unless they start forecasting warm temperatures...

I'll keep this in mind when viewing the 12Z GFS.

[Ntxw]

Flip flop till they drop! Either the weather will go mad or the models havent a clue. Will lee cyclogenesis win or low level cold air???

[wxman57]

12Z Euro has Houston in the 30s from Monday through Thursday of next week. Highs of 34-35 on some days. Lows above freezing, though. Up to 4-5" snow for Lake Charles next Wednesday. Only a couple inches of snow in Houston. Yeah, right...

[Portastorm]

Heh, that 12z Euro op run says "I got your warm-up right here, wxman57."

Geez ... what a departure from previous runs. Clearly there is a LOT of volatility in the models for the next week. Not sure what to believe at this point.

[Tireman4]

12Z Euro has Houston in the 30s from Monday through Thursday of next week. Highs of 34-35 on some days. Lows above freezing, though. Up to 4-5" snow for Lake Charles next Wednesday. Only a couple inches of snow in Houston. Yeah, right...

Woo Hoo...We'll be dancing...dancing in the streets!!!!

[davidiowx]

The Euro must really be out to lunch on this run lol.

[Portastorm]

The Euro must really be out to lunch on this run lol.

Yeah, even by my standards I would consider its depiction to be "extreme."

[Ntxw]

Said it last week, trust surface depiction of models at one's own risk. Volatility is certain when changing from one dominant pattern to another, the model lag effect.

[TheProfessor]

What does the Euro show for North Texas?

[Tireman4]

Goodness me it is hot outside. It is 81 in Houston. Wonder why Wxman 57 is not crowing over this. Lol

[wxman57]

Earlier, I was looking at the EC forecast for minimum temps over each 6hr period. Here's the 12Z forecast for central Houston using "snapshot" temperatures at 6 hour time increments starting 6pm Sunday. Not as bad. Doesn't look like a snowy temperature regime...

[wxman57]

Goodness me it is hot outside. It is 81 in Houston. Wonder why Wxman 57 is not crowing over this. Lol

Airport obs are 75 at IAH, 78 Hobby and 77 Sugar Land. Still a bit cool...

[wxman57]

What does the Euro show for North Texas?

Here you go. Note that the Euro has the noon Sunday temperature of 75 in Dallas, dropping to 31 by 6pm. Note - high temperatures are not indicated, as they typically occur near 3pm.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

What does the Euro show for North Texas?

Here you go. Note that the Euro has the noon Sunday temperature of 75 in Dallas, dropping to 31 by 6pm. Note - high temperatures are not indicated, as they typically occur near 3pm.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/EC12ZTUEDallas.gif

Gadzooks! Clear skies? Blue norther?

As an aside, as a Dallasite, this winter has reminded me of one of my favorite lyrics..."don't your feet get cold in the wintertime, the sky won't snow and the sun won't shine, it's hard to tell the nightime from the day".

[Tireman4]

What does the Euro show for North Texas?

Here you go. Note that the Euro has the noon Sunday temperature of 75 in Dallas, dropping to 31 by 6pm. Note - high temperatures are not indicated, as they typically occur near 3pm.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/EC12ZTUEDallas.gif

Gadzooks! Clear skies? Blue norther?

As an aside, as a Dallasite, this winter has reminded me of one of my favorite lyrics..."don't your feet get cold in the wintertime, the sky won't snow and the sun won't shine, it's hard to tell the nightime from the day".

Desperado, The Eagles? This is a shot in the dark from me. No, I did not Google it........

[Tejas89]

I figured there would be more excitement on here for the possibility of *sleet* in DFW tonight. We all know how things can deteriorate under a seemingly benign forecast.

[Texas Snowman]

Nah, we all got the memo - or meteogram - from Lord Vader.

Winter is over, spring has sprung, the daffodils are blooming, and there will be no more freezing temperatures south of the Red River.

[CaptinCrunch]

I figured there would be more excitement on here for the possibility of *sleet* in DFW tonight. We all know how things can deteriorate under a seemingly benign forecast.

Sleet has been taken out of the updated forecast from the NWS, however they lowered the high temp for Wednesday to only 34.

[weatherdude1108]

Pretty significant change in the GFS for Sunday/Monday. It had a good rain even, now it's not so much, and it's COLD.

As much as the models are flip-flopping around from run to run I wouldn't trust them beyond about an hour. That is, unless they start forecasting warm temperatures...

I believe this is what is called a model bias. Or perhaps a forecaster bias!

The next 36 hours are going to be nasty here in Austin with cold rain but I'm not complaining. Rain = good.

Agreed! RAIN...GOOD.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The Euro must really be out to lunch on this run lol.

Yeah, even by my standards I would consider its depiction to be "extreme."

We need more spirit then that gang!

Just looked at the Euro, where are you guys seeing the 12z? On e-wall it didnt even look close to freezing temps