ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Portastorm]

While I do think that this hurricane season will be affected significantly by the El Nino, especially on the back end of the season, it's the front end that may be "interesting". I know we are comparing apples to oranges but the two analog years that are mentioned, 1957 and 1972 had significant tropical cyclone activity in June. Audrey in June of 1957 and Agnes in June of 1972 even though the numbers of both years were around 7 to 8 named storms. As the saying goes, it only takes one storm to make a season memorable.

Very interesting Rob what you bring to the ENSO discussion.Let's see what occurs.

What piques my interest about Rob's post is that the three analog storms he referenced all came out of the Gulf with targets of Texas (Celia 1970), Louisiana (Audrey 1957), and the Florida panhandle (Agnes 1972). Something to think about for us Gulf Coasters.

[wxman57]

FYI, the Euro is predicting pressures way above normal in the Gulf, Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic this June-August, which is the exact opposite of last year. This would indicate more sinking air and a more hostile environment across the tropics. In addition to also predicting a moderate El Nino by the summer, the EC predicts SSTs to be normal to below normal in the main development region but well above normal in the Gulf.

[Portastorm]

FYI, the Euro is predicting pressures way above normal in the Gulf, Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic this June-August, which is the exact opposite of last year. This would indicate more sinking air and a more hostile environment across the tropics. In addition to also predicting a moderate El Nino by the summer, the EC predicts SSTs to be normal to below normal in the main development region but well above normal in the Gulf.

We all know how well the Euro deterministic runs do in the 5-day and 6-day skill set scores but I'm curious how well the Euro does with seasonal forecasts like the ones you referenced above. Better than the CFSv2? Worse? Same?

[crownweather]

FYI, the Euro is predicting pressures way above normal in the Gulf, Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic this June-August, which is the exact opposite of last year. This would indicate more sinking air and a more hostile environment across the tropics. In addition to also predicting a moderate El Nino by the summer, the EC predicts SSTs to be normal to below normal in the main development region but well above normal in the Gulf.

We all know how well the Euro deterministic runs do in the 5-day and 6-day skill set scores but I'm curious how well the Euro does with seasonal forecasts like the ones you referenced above. Better than the CFSv2? Worse? Same?

Also, are the forecast conditions forecast by the Euro any worse than what we saw for overall conditions last year, in terms of sinking, dry air which seemed to squash anything that tried to get going. If I remember right, the Euro forecasted the same general type conditions for the 2013 hurricane season (higher than average pressures), which led to the unfavorable conditions found during the 2013 hurricane season.

[Ntxw]

1970 was going into La Nina so I don't think that year is a good analog. But those systems effecting the gulf in the other years are interesting.

Westerlies persists in the western Pacific basin and will very likely strengthen. The MJO continues to show signs of progressing into the EPAC/eastern basin (phase 8) thus warming in the east is likely coupled with the up-welling of the sub-surface which could occur in a couple of weeks. The sub-surface pool basically now spans the entire equatorial Pacific from 140E to 100W and is very large in depth!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Forest fire in Eastern Samar: http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/regio ... orest-fire


I don't know if this is related to ENSO, as there is only very little rainfall here. Probably this year will be an ENSO active year and 100% sure that a La Nina will be absent.

[Kingarabian]

Forest fire in Eastern Samar: http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/regio ... orest-fire


I don't know if this is related to ENSO, as there is only very little rainfall here. Probably this year will be an ENSO active year and 100% sure that a La Nina will be absent.

There is some correlations between the two, but in this case it's probably too early to tell.

[cycloneye]

Australian update of 2/25/14

Pacific is going to warm in the coming months is the main message here.

Pacific Ocean expected to warm

Issued on Tuesday 25 February 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral – neither El Niño nor La Niña. However, warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely in the coming months, with international climate models surveyed by the Bureau showing Pacific Ocean temperatures approaching or exceeding El Niño thresholds in the austral winter. Model outlooks that span autumn tend to have lower skill than outlooks made at other times of the year, and hence should be used cautiously in isolation.

Recent observations add weight to the model outlooks. The tropical Pacific Ocean subsurface has warmed substantially in recent weeks, which is likely to result in a warming of the ocean surface in the coming months. A strong burst of westerly wind occurring now over the far western tropical Pacific, may cause further warming of the subsurface in the coming weeks.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[Kingarabian]

Nino 3.4 starting to warm up.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/s ... .week.html

[cycloneye]

Comparisons between 1997 and 2014 are beginning to emerge by experts.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 9 min
2014 westerly wind burst compared with 1997-- 2014 isn't done yet either!

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 2 min
It has been 5 years since the last El Nino- much longer than ave. Best analogs for this duration of absence are 57,63,76,82,86,91,02 -- ugh.

[cycloneye]

The large warm pool at sub-surface continues to expand eastward. This is a saved loop.

[Ntxw]

The large warm pool at sub-surface continues to expand eastward. This is a saved loop.

Great loop! It's moving up that thermocline, it's going to get hotter once the core reaches 120W as those warm anomalies are even warmer in the eastern basin due to waters there naturally averaging cooler. If that reaches the surface it's going to heat up ENSO regions likely 1C+ or greater for a time. Interested in the next ESPI reading as the WPAC continues to be very wet.

Compare it to 2009 at it's peak. This is just as impressive but much earlier in the year like 1997. 1997 reached the surface around April. Based on the loop it's taken about 2 months for the current pool to have reached the central regions of the thermocline from down-welling. Interpolating it will probably be April-May-June we see this pool arrive at the surface.



While we still need to get to El Nino first, perhaps Dr Ventrice was on to something calling it the next super nino. Long way to go, but this is how you start one

[cycloneye]

Interested in the next ESPI reading as the WPAC continues to be very wet

ESPI continues to move slowly up in positive territory.

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

[cycloneye]

Real time data shows the slow climbing of Nino 3.4. Saved image.



http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean.html

[Kingarabian]

You folks see that sub-tropical jet? Going to cause some funky weather in Mainland USA. Associated with that +PDO?

[Cyclenall]

FYI, the Euro is predicting pressures way above normal in the Gulf, Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic this June-August, which is the exact opposite of last year.

Uh no it isn't. Its the same as what it was showing last year, at least in late June or early July. You posted Euro projections of pressures that were high pretty much all over the Atlantic basin that would completely shut the basin down in an unprecedented way and most thought there was 0% chance of it happening. Then the season ended up being such a stinker that it gave that Euro credits for pointing to something extremely negative. Users claim it's irrelevant because the Euro was incorrectly showing an El Nino for 2013 but it must have detected something else other than super dry air.

This would indicate more sinking air and a more hostile environment across the tropics. In addition to also predicting a moderate El Nino by the summer, the EC predicts SSTs to be normal to below normal in the main development region but well above normal in the Gulf.

It appears if even half of that is in play for the Atlantic this upcoming season, I won't be following.

[Ntxw]

It appears if even half of that is in play for the Atlantic this upcoming season, I won't be following.

For those that like something to track an El Nino is probably a good thing in the long run. Sacrifice a year for bigger years following especially if La Nina appears. Going from El Nino to La Nina, especially the stronger versions of the two, tends to produce prolific ACE years. If we get another non nino do dud year like 2012 then there won't be much change in energy exchange in the atmosphere to shift the so so regime of the past few seasons since 2010 (El nino to La Nina).

[cycloneye]

It appears if even half of that is in play for the Atlantic this upcoming season, I won't be following.

If you are a hurricane enthusiastic person you will like this years EPAC season as some big ones may develop with this pattern shaping up.

[Kingarabian]

It appears if even half of that is in play for the Atlantic this upcoming season, I won't be following.

For those that like something to track an El Nino is probably a good thing in the long run. Sacrifice a year for bigger years following especially if La Nina appears. Going from El Nino to La Nina, especially the stronger versions of the two, tends to produce prolific ACE years. If we get another non nino do dud year like 2012 then there won't be much change in energy exchange in the atmosphere to shift the so so regime of the past few seasons since 2010 (El nino to La Nina).

Ntxw, do you think the next PDO reading will be be more or less positive?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, do you think the next PDO reading will be be more or less positive?

I can't say for certain, as I don't fully understand the complex method that is used to calculate it. I do know it is SST anomaly trends in the north Pacific north of 20N. It is basically the relationship between the eastern and western basin. If waters off the west coast of North America is cold and around Japan is warm shooting east that's a -PDO. If cooler waters shoots from Japan east and west coast of North America is warm that's +PDO, again north of 20N.



So overall it looks mixed. Some sense of -PDO in the far north central Pacific, some sense of +PDO in the in east and far west. In other words the PDO is very weak and + or - readings probably will be insignificant to ENSO at this time and likely only weak values.

One area that is worth noting is Indonesia. Very cold waters have emerged there and west of the Philippines, thus drough is looming for this region of the world. This is a strong signal for the MJO to persist in El Nino phases. During La Nina this region is very warm and persistent convection occurs suppressing Pacific MJO waves.