WPAC: FAXAI - Tropical Storm

[euro6208]

Very cloudy this morning and very windy!

You would think that a typhoon is close by but the real action doesn't start in 3-4 days!

Soaky, breezy, and windy weather next few days!

NWS Guam:

.DISCUSSION...
CIRCULATION IS HARD TO THIS MORNING FIND BUT IS LIKELY JUST WEST
OF CHUUK. STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED GRADIENT AND THE
SHEAR LINE ARE OVER THE MARIANAS TODAY.

MODELS ALL AGREE WITH KEEPING THE CIRCULATION SOUTH OF 10N
THROUGH SUNDAY. AND MOVE IT NORTH OF 10N MONDAY. AFTER THAT
MODELS DIVERGE WITH SOME TAKING IT EAST OF GUAM AND SOME WEST OF
GUAM SOMETIME LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. ONLY HAVE FAIR CONFIDENCE
IN FORECAST THOUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF BETWEEN 20 TO
30 MPH MOST OF THE TIME. TODAY WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL TONIGHT.

[euro6208]

779
WWMY80 PGUM 262340
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
940 AM CHST THU FEB 27 2014

GUZ001>005-PMZ151>154-281200-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-NORTHERN ISLANDS-MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS-
940 AM CHST THU FEB 27 2014

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REMAINS NORTHWEST OF CHUUK...

AT 830 AM THIS MORNING...THE ILL-DEFINED CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE NORTHWEST OF CHUUK WAS LOCATED NEAR 9 DEGREES NORTH AND
149 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 440 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND 490
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN. A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THIS
DISTURBANCE...BUT IT HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND
THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS ON FRIDAY. BEYOND
THAT...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXACT PATH AND
INTENSITY OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...ITS PERIPHERAL EFFECTS
COULD BE FELT IN THE MARIANAS AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MARIANAS BY FRIDAY AND SHOULD LAST MOST OF THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHEAST
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND COMBINED SEAS OF 12 TO 15
FEET WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THE DISTURBANCE. HIGHER WINDS AND
WAVES ALONG WITH HEAVIER RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IF THE DISTURBANCE TAKES
MORE OF A DIRECT PATH TOWARDS THE MARIANAS AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.

STAY INFORMED ON THIS EVOLVING WEATHER SITUATION...ESPECIALLY IF
YOU ARE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OVER THE WEEKEND. KEEP ABREAST
OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN FOR ANY FURTHER STATEMENTS OR
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICE. BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY IF
A WATCH OR WARNING IS ISSUED.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[stormkite]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/N0Z/GUA_loop.gif







If this data is correct atm the upper SEasterly shear is now roaring up to 78 knots







llcc is still intact and not open.




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[

[RobWESTPACWX]

Still thinking Tropical Storm Highly likely

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPaa3fVBvBQ[/youtube]

[euro6208]

Am not surprised that this system continues to become more and more disorganized since this morning. GFS seems to be spot on with development in 2-3 days south of us but for now still under a TCFA from JTWC.

TXPQ29 KNES 270318
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)

B. 27/0232Z

C. 8.4N

D. 148.2E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION WITH FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER.IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RUMINSKI

[euro6208]

Slowly deteriorating weather with peak on monday. Notice the wind shift on hour 18 monday due to passage of eye and increases in strength thereafter. This is for location on southeast portion of Guam.

Still far out and this could change if it gets weaker or stronger than forecast...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NWS products.

[RobWESTPACWX]

IR continues to show disorganization but if you peer at Vis imagery the LLC is there, and even fireing off today. Just has to escape that shear. So will it?

[RobWESTPACWX]

I just posted a full update at this link, if you guys read it could you please comment here let me know what you think.

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/20 ... wx-update/

[stormkite]

Not looking to flash i think its all down hill from this point.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 270530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUE//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260521Z FEB 14//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 260530)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 290 NM RADIUS OF 8.2N 147.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 270500Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 148.0E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0N
149.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED AND FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT HAS BEGUN TO RE-TRACK TOWARDS THE EQUATOR. THE WEAK
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED NORTHWESTWARD. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 03 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE(10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS SUSTAINING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE INTENSIFY THIS DISTURBANCE BUT WITH WIDELY SPREAD
TRAJECTORIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS, BASED ON RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA, ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280530Z. //
//
NNNN


Reissued.

Starting to turn southwesterly with great uncertainty in track.

[euro6208]

I went out today and glad people are taking precautions with this developing disturbance with people stocking up on groceries and many taking down their canopies at the meantime. NWS Guam is doing a great job keeping people up to date.

Wet and windy!

[RobWESTPACWX]

If you got photos Euro really would love to seem them

[RobWESTPACWX]

When did NWS reports start having exclamation points?

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE FUTURE OF 93W...WITH
FUTURE TRACKS TENDING SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST COMPARED WITH EARLIER
MODEL RUNS. THE GFS STILL RUNS IT AT THE MARIANAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT THE UKMET MOVES IT WEST...THEN REVERSES COURSE AND
TAKES IT EAST TO JUST WEST OF CHUUK SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY!
IN THE FACE OF SUCH DISAGREEMENT ON THE GUIDANCE...HAVE MADE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO POSTPONE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL SATURDAY. IN
THE MEANTIME...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE SHEAR LINE WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

[stormkite]

My money's on a typhoon cat1


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[euro6208]

836
WWMY80 PGUM 271031
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
831 PM CHST THU FEB 27 2014

GUZ001>005-PMZ151>154-281200-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-NORTHERN ISLANDS-MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS-
831 PM CHST THU FEB 27 2014

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REMAINS NORTHWEST OF CHUUK...

AT 700 PM THIS EVENING...THE ILL-DEFINED CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE NORTHWEST OF CHUUK WAS LOCATED NEAR 9 DEGREES NORTH AND
148 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 395 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
AND 470 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN. A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER REMAINS IN
EFFECT ON THIS DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER IT CONTINUES TO SHOW NO SIGNS
OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD
TONIGHT...THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS ON FRIDAY. BEYOND
THAT...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXACT PATH AND
INTENSITY OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...ITS PERIPHERAL EFFECTS
COULD BE FELT IN THE MARIANAS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS THAT
HAVE AFFECTED THE MARIANAS SINCE THURSDAY ARE DUE TO A SHEAR LINE
THAT HAS DROPPED DOWN FROM THE NORTH...AND CAN BE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE MARIANAS UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AND COULD PASS WELL
EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ESPECIALLY IF THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD TRACK
CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 MPH
AND COMBINED SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FEET WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THE
DISTURBANCE. HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES ALONG WITH HEAVIER RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE IF THE DISTURBANCE TAKES MORE OF A DIRECT PATH TOWARDS THE
MARIANAS AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.

STAY INFORMED ON THIS EVOLVING WEATHER SITUATION...ESPECIALLY IF
YOU ARE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OVER THE WEEKEND. KEEP ABREAST
OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN FOR ANY FURTHER STATEMENTS OR
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICE. BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY IF
A WATCH OR WARNING IS ISSUED.

$$

STANKO

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Stay safe Guam especially euro6208!

[euro6208]

I had time to take some pictures today during my break from work and took one just now as showers passing through.

This is nothing compared to what will happen next week if the models verify!

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.1N
148.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 147.4E, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A RAGGED AND EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAK
CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 03 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS SUSTAINING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE INTENSIFY THIS DISTURBANCE BUT WITH WIDELY SPREAD
TRAJECTORIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 270530) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[euro6208]

3rd Tropical Cyclone of the season!

WTPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270521Z FEB 14//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 9.0N 147.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.0N 147.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 8.7N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 8.8N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 9.2N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 10.0N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 12.5N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.5N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 21.2N 152.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 8.9N 147.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 308 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 010300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 270521Z FEB 14
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 270530).//
NNNN

[Meow]

3rd Tropical Cyclone of the season!

So it is expected to be a harmless system.