Texas Winter 2013-2014

[orangeblood]

yeah, the nam has the cold coming in much earlier on Sunday. I has 1-2 inches of snow right around the I-35 corridor. The nam has a lot less precip for us though. If you were to mix the precip from the GFS with the timing and magnitude of the nam's cold, The Metroplex might be in trouble on Sunday.

This is a good observation. If the GFS is off on it's placement by just some you have a very heavy winter precip event.

0z GFS stacks the cold air like crazy. This air mass is just going to plow.

But the enhanced convection appears to be caused by frontogenetic forcing directly behind the frontal boundary (still above freezing). I would expect this heavy precip boundary to be further south if the models are underestimating the speed of the front.

[ravyrn]

Porta, HeatMiser, and Ntxw: What are yalls take on the chances of a freezing rain event in the metroplex. I've heard it whispered the past few days. Models seem to be trending towards the possibility.

[TheProfessor]

FWD now has my high on Sunday at 57. I think earlier today it was at 70. Maybe they are noticing the trend too?

[orangeblood]

My goodness....0Z GFS has temps in Southern Alberta on Saturday of almost 80 Deg F below normal This HP, relative to normal, will probably be the strongest of this cold winter season

[Ntxw]

Porta, HeatMiser, and Ntxw: What are yalls take on the chances of a freezing rain event in the metroplex. I've heard it whispered the past few days. Models seem to be trending towards the possibility.

The threat is there. The fact the models are zoning in within the 3-4 day range is a red flag. 1050+ Arctic high is coming down with a potent storm coming out of California. Euro has abandoned it's warm solutions and have been getting colder each run and is quite close to a potential winter weather event. GFS and NAM goes nutso for cold, precip is lurking right there. This is not La La land, it's the next few days.

There is a Hudson bay block coming.

[aggiecutter]

Update from Joe Haynes channel 3 weather from the 10:00 o'clock news. First of all, he uses his own weather forecasting software called Precision Cast. Anyway, he ran a loop of Precision Cast from Sunday noon til 6A Monday morning. The model showed an extensive area of wintry mix in Northern Texas(as far south as about 70 miles south of I-20) around 6P Sunday heading toward NE Texas. The change over to a wintry mix in the Texarkana area would occur around 9P Sunday and continue well into early Monday morning. The model showed the Texarkana area having a heavy wintry mix for 4-5 hours with temperatures in the mid 20's. Haynes is actually getting bullish on the event, which is out of character for him as his forecast are generally very conservative.

[orangeblood]

Porta, HeatMiser, and Ntxw: What are yalls take on the chances of a freezing rain event in the metroplex. I've heard it whispered the past few days. Models seem to be trending towards the possibility.

The threat is there. The fact the models are zoning in within the 3-4 day range is a red flag. 1050+ Arctic high is coming down with a potent storm coming out of California. Euro has abandoned it's warm solutions and have been getting colder each run and is quite close to a potential winter weather event. GFS and NAM goes nutso for cold, precip is lurking right there. This is not La La land, it's the next few days.

There is a Hudson bay block coming.

Potent Storm is an understatement....it's some 5-6 Standard Deviation's below normal by the time it crashes into So Cal. I would be shocked if that system went quietly in the night, as some of the models are showing.

[Ntxw]

Potent Storm is an understatement....it's some 5-6 Standard Deviation's below normal by the time it crashes into So Cal. I would be shocked if that system went quietly in the night, as some of the models are showing.

MJO magic, not surprised at all. Golden.

[orangeblood]

If tonight's Euro Weeklies come even close to verifying, the southern plains is in for a very stormy/wet March.

[TarrantWx]

The WPC has the metroplex with a 30-40% chance of freezing rain for the 24 hours ending 00z Monday with a 10-20% chance of greater than .10". The probabilities increase another 10 percent north of a Keller to Plano line.

[gpsnowman]

A bunch of us will be camping on Lake Ray Roberts the first weekend of spring break March 9-10. Are we going to freeze our rear ends off? Yeah, it's ten days away but the way this winter is going bringing a heater and an ice scraper would not be a bad idea. And long johns, liquor, wool socks, etc....

Well GFS says 60s and 70s with partly sunny skies, euro says your trip has about 2 inches of snow on the ground. I'd prepare for anything just in case! In all seriousness the wavelengths get shorter so the swings between warm and cold can happen very abruptly. We'll probably be thawing out from the cold that takes over the US between March 1-7. MJO is in it's wet phases too so consider that as well.

Thanks for the response. Rather have cold and snow than rain while camping. Or sunshine!!!

[gpsnowman]

Awfully quiet around here considering a potential high impact Texas winter storm is less than 3 days away.....

Yep. This is exciting. The board will get in high gear if this event pans out. 477 pages would be challenged.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Will be doing my best boys to shove it ALL your way!

[wxman57]

There might be some winter weather Sunday if you live in central to northern Oklahoma, but not in Texas.

[gboudx]

the DFW NWS doesn't share that opinion, judging from the AFD this morning.

For those that like Steve McCauleys opinion, his Stat Method isn't onboard with the NAM. But it does show some wintry precip in the red river counties.

[Ntxw]

There might be some winter weather Sunday if you live in central to northern Oklahoma, but not in Texas.

I have some good news for you sir, since you have been having a rough winter of your discontent, the usual mid month thaw will usher in real spring towards the equinox as the -EPO exits. However the baton is likely to be passed to ENSO and SOI that continues below average later in the month. JB's storms and rumors of storms.

Good news whether you believe wintry or not models are wet again with liquid this weekend

The NAM is just too crazy I think with the cold. Low to mid teens is challenging all time March records. I think tis best to stick with the mean, lower 20s to upper teens

[wxman57]

The NAM is certainly way out on a limb all by itself with its forecast of sub-freezing temperatures and light precip in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area. In my experience, since certain "upgrades" a decade or so ago it's done rather poorly down south. GFS and Euro have all precip pre-frontal in the warm air.

[Portastorm]

Sorry wxman57 but it's not only the NAM that disagrees with your assessment but the 09z SREF short-range ensembles as well. They show an area of light freezing drizzle/light rain Sunday evening for portions of North Texas just northeast of Abilene to the northern 'burbs of the Metroplex and up to the Red River.

Also, as previously mentioned, the Winter Weather desk from the NWS Weather Prediction Center has at least 50% or greater probabilities for freezing rain late Sunday into Monday early in portions of Texas closer to the Red River.

[Ntxw]

12z Nam has just completely lost its mind. Not only is DFW seeing its coldest air mass of the season (thats saying something this year) it challenges the all time March record low of 10F. Of course if you believe it.

[TheProfessor]

I hope it hasn't lost its mind. What better way to end a cold winter than with the coldest air of the season. I would love to have a chance at single digits and with precip that could produce an insanely high snow ratio!