Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

12z GFS looking several degrees colder than its 0z run for DFW area late Sunday into Monday morning.

[orangeblood]

That scenario is likely fantasy land, the heavy precip will be caused by frontogenetic forcing directly along the frontal boundary. Probably light precip in the below freezing air further behind the front.


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[orangeblood]

12z GFS looking several degrees colder than its 0z run for DFW area late Sunday into Monday morning.

Along with freezing rain again on Tuesday morning. If the NAM is right about this airmass, the PWC could get in on the action Tuesday morning as well when isentropic upglide returns

[TheProfessor]

Yeah the 12z GFS has a low around 12-14 degrees here, that's a lot closer to the Nam

[SouthernMet]

everyone go take a look at the satellite image for the west coast/pacific. very impressive

[gboudx]

everyone go take a look at the satellite image for the west coast/pacific. very impressive

Is it close enough to be data sampled for model input?

[TheProfessor]

everyone go take a look at the satellite image for the west coast/pacific. very impressive

Yeah that almost looks like a tropical cyclone!

[wxman57]

Here's the 12Z GFS raw temps for DFW. Low of 20 Monday and precip ends prior to the sub-freezing temps arrival. Has some light freezing drizzle on Tuesday, though. GFS MOS has 21 as coldest for DFW Monday and 36 in Houston Tue/Wed.

[TheProfessor]

Storm Prediction center stated that this storm could spawn tornadoes along the southern California coast! Looking at the storm on satellite, this doesn't surprise me.

[TheProfessor]

Here's the 12Z GFS raw temps for DFW. Low of 20 Monday and precip ends prior to the sub-freezing temps arrival. Has some light freezing drizzle on Tuesday, though. GFS MOS has 21 as coldest for DFW Monday and 36 in Houston Tue/Wed.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfs12zfeb28.gif

Yeah, but incase you hadn't noticed, the last few GFS runs have decreased the high for Sunday, and if this trend continues it might very well trend towards the Nam.

[ronyan]

The 12z GFS has IAH near the 40 degree mark for an entire day with around .40" qpf during that time. It could get interesting for the northern zones if there is any trend toward colder temps.

[orangeblood]

Here's the 12Z GFS raw temps for DFW. Low of 20 Monday and precip ends prior to the sub-freezing temps arrival. Has some light freezing drizzle on Tuesday, though. GFS MOS has 21 as coldest for DFW Monday and 36 in Houston Tue/Wed.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfs12zfeb28.gif

So Tuesday's total QPF of .10 in below freezing air equates to freezing drizzle now ? Who knew. You are taking confirmation bias to a new level these days

[wxman57]

Here's the 12Z GFS raw temps for DFW. Low of 20 Monday and precip ends prior to the sub-freezing temps arrival. Has some light freezing drizzle on Tuesday, though. GFS MOS has 21 as coldest for DFW Monday and 36 in Houston Tue/Wed.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfs12zfeb28.gif

So Tuesday's total QPF of .10 in below freezing air equates to freezing drizzle now ? Who knew. You are taking confirmation bias to a new level these days

Yeah, 18 hours of precip to equal 0.10" or less. That's about an average of .006" per hour. Not exactly a downpour.

[TheProfessor]

But that depends on the precip type and the ratio. if its freezing rain than yes it would be freezing drizzle. But if temperatures are colder than what is being predicted than it depends on the snow ratio. As we saw earlier this month a 20/1 ratio of .05" of snow over about a 10 hour span made it look like a moderate-to heavy snowfall out side. So if the temperature turns out to be 28 degrees then the snow ratio might be near 10/1 for the .1" of snow for 18 hours, which, might have moderate to heavy snowfall at times.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The 12Z CMC, GFS, and NAM are all showing a last piece of energy moving into Texas late Monday, into Tuesday morning, creating a wintry mix for northern Texas.

[orangeblood]

Yeah, 18 hours of precip to equal 0.10" or less. That's about an average of .006" per hour. Not exactly a downpour.

Come on, there is nothing about those GFS Soundings that point towards freezing drizzle....the upper levels of the atmosphere are completely saturated Tuesday Morning with a thick/saturated dendrite growth zone. These are snowflakes melting to rain drops in a warm layer around 750-850 mb, borderline sleet, IMO. The thin dry layer around 800mb explains the lower QPF amounts.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro is in. It's in fairly good agreement with the 12z GFS and considerably warmer than the 12Z NAM. Coldest of 20 in the Dallas area and mid 30s in Houston next week. Some quite cold high temps in Houston, though. Note that the graphics below plot only 6 hour intervals, so the high temp that occurs around 3pm won't be as well represented as the morning low with respect to the 12Z/6am temps.

12Z GFS soundings for next Tuesday up in the Dallas area show a significant warm layer between 10,000ft and just below 4000ft. Anything falling into that layer should melt on its way down. Can't rule out sleet with those soundings, though the surface sub-freezing layer should be quite shallow.

[cperez291]

NWS Brownsville Discussion at 11:30am

A SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD REVISION IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE FOR
MONDAY WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. A STRONG AND COLD ARCTIC
SOURCE AIR MASS WILL PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANCE FOR MODIFICATION. ONE MODEL...
THE NAM...IS TAKING RAW TEMPERATURE VALUES DOWN INTO THE 30S FOR
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. NAM GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE IN THE 40S WHICH...HOWEVER...ALSO TAKES INTO ACCOUNT
CLIMO. THE GFS AND OTHER GUIDANCE HAS NOT QUITE YET JUMPED ON THE
BANDWAGON...AND ARE STILL HINTING AT 50S. THUS...EVEN CONSERVATIVE
TRENDS WILL RESULT IN COLDER TEMPS FOR MONDAY THAN ARE NOW BEING
FORECAST. GIVEN THE TYPE OF WINTER WE`VE HAD AND THE NOT TOO
SHABBY TRACK RECORD OF THE NAM WITH THESE EVENTS...THE AMOUNT OF
ADJUSTMENT NEEDS TO BE WEIGHED CAREFULLY. THIS WILL BE THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY AND GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

[Portastorm]

Regardless of whether you buy into the NAM or not, I definitely think there's enough uncertainty and enough potential for parts of Texas to see wintry weather in the next five days. Looks like this board will be active this weekend.

[orangeblood]

Regardless of whether you buy into the NAM or not, I definitely think there's enough uncertainty and enough potential for parts of Texas to see wintry weather in the next five days. Looks like this board will be active this weekend.

No doubt about it, an extremely active 1st week of March