Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ntxw]

10 or 20 it wont matter. Arctic blast is coming and the greening vegetation is going to feel it. Its not a wimpy front where cold is 6 hrs behind, a wall of cold 20s/30s behind 60s/70s ahead them legendary blue norther fronts! Epo wants it cold it will get cold.

[wxman57]

Agree - either is quite cold for March. With any luck, this will be the last big cold front of the season (and we don't get to 32F at IAH). Otherwise, I'll have to admit that I love cold weather.

Take a look at this latest satellite image of the ice on the Great Lakes. Similar if not more ice than the winter of 1976-1977 which froze much of the Mississippi. There were chunks of ice passing New Orleans in 1977.

http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/greatlakes_amo_2014050_lrg_0.jpg

[Portastorm]

WOW! Amazing photo. Stunning, really.

[cperez291]

000
FXUS64 KBRO 281947
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
147 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...CLOUD COVER HAS THINNED
QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS LLVL WINDS MIX IN DRIER AIR. THE STRONG LLVL
WINDS HAVE MIXED TO THE SFC BETTER THAN FORECAST...WHICH REQUIRED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES...WHICH REMAIN SIN
EFFECT THROUGH 5PM. AFTER SUNSET...THE WINDS DECOUPLE...WITH SFC
WINDS LOWERING TO 5 TO 10KTS. LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
HELP BRING SOME PATCHY FOG BACK TO THE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. NO SEA
FOG YET NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH TEXAS WILL BRING
ANOTHER WINDS DAY TOMORROW. WINDS CURRENTLY FORECASTING 15 TO 20
KNOTS...BUT MODELS UNDERFORECAST TODAYS WIND EVENT CONSIDERABLY...SO
TOMORROW MAY BE BREEZIER THAN EXPECTED. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN LOW
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...PROBABLY THE MAIN STORY
IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN ARCTIC SOURCE AIR MASS MOVING THROUGH
THE CWA ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WILL REMAIN LITTLE CHANGED.

A SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD REVISION IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE FOR
MONDAY HOWEVER. A STRONG AND COLD ARCTIC SOURCE AIR MASS WILL PLUNGE
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANCE
FOR MODIFICATION. THE NAM HAS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL
PATTERN ON MONDAY...WITH STEEPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST ALLOWING FOR
A MORE NORTH TO SOUTH TRAJECTORY OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE THAN THE
GFS. THE NAM SETS UP A 1045 MB HIGH OVER NEBRASKA MONDAY MORNING. AS
A RESULT...THE NAM IS TAKING RAW TEMPERATURE VALUES DOWN INTO THE
30S FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV BY MONDAY AFTN. NAM GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE IN THE 40S WHICH...HOWEVER...ALSO TAKES INTO ACCOUNT
CLIMO. THE GFS AND OTHER GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE TRENDING DOWN BUT ARE
IN THE CATCH UP MODE...STILL HINTING AT 50S. THUS EVEN CONSERVATIVE
TRENDS WILL RESULT IN COLDER TEMPS FOR MONDAY THAN ARE NOW BEING
FORECAST. HAVE INCORPORATED THE NAM INTO THE FORECAST...BUT WENT
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE AND ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE RAW VALUES
TO LEAVE A CUSHION FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. GIVEN THE TYPE
OF WINTER WE`VE HAD...AND THE NOT TOO SHABBY RECENT TRACK RECORD OF
THE NAM WITH THESE EVENTS...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE OVERALL CHANGE
SEEMS WARRANTED. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR
TODAY AND GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONSIST MAINLY OF THE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER RUNNING TYPE SEEN
HERE FREQUENTLY WITH COLD AIR MASSES. AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL TRUNDLE ACROSS NORTH MEXICO ON MONDAY
AND WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AS IT TAKES ITS TIME GETTING ACROSS TEXAS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...STARTING ON MONDAY...WILL FEEL LIKE
WINTER HAS RETURNED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...CLOUDY SKIES...AND
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE RULE. IT WONT BE
UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES OVER AND THE UPSTREAM
RIDGE BUILDS IN THAT MORE SEASONAL WEATHER WILL RETURN

[WeatherGuesser]

Take a look at this latest satellite image of the ice on the Great Lakes. Similar if not more ice than the winter of 1976-1977 which froze much of the Mississippi. There were chunks of ice passing New Orleans in 1977.

It's opened up quite a bit in the last few days:

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=116168&hilit=

[Ralph's Weather]

Here are the 12Z NAM noon Sunday temps:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Here is the 12Z NAM precip for the next 12 hours:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

This shows about .1 inch of freezing rain in the Tyler area.

Though the GFS shows the freezing temps to be 6-12 hours later than the NAM with almost no post frontal precip. The NAM is showing little in the way of storms ahead of the front though. I would imagine that the truth is a combination of the two with morning storms here then the cold pouring in the afternoon with some light freezing rain during the evening and into the night.

A quick glance at the 18Z NAM and through Sunday morning it looks like it is holding onto it's idea of early cold and post-frontal precip.

[WeatherGuesser]

SPC Day 3 now has a Slight Risk for much of TX and LA

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

SPC Day 3 now has a Slight Risk for much of TX and LA

Slight Risk of what? Winter weather or server thunderstorms?

[aggiecutter]

The official forecast from the Shreveport NWS office for Texarkana for Sunday night is freezing rain, with a low of 26.

Shreveport AFD:
AS THE SHALLOW SUBFREEZING AIRMASS SLOWLY BLEEDS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING...CANNOT RULE OUT A TRANSITION
OVER THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BUT AT THIS TIME...PERCENTAGES AND/OR
AMOUNTS DO NOT WARRANT ANY KIND OF WATCH OR ADVISORY. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER HOWEVER.

WE STAY COLD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES QUICKLY INTO OUR REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH A FAST...PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN CONTINUING.
KEPT RAIN CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE FOR NOW BUT AMPLIFICATION OF THE
TROUGH MERGING WITH A CLIPPER TROUGH PER THE ECMWF WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT POSSIBLE WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY MIDWEEK.

[South Texas Storms]

SPC Day 3 now has a Slight Risk for much of TX and LA

Slight Risk of what? Winter weather or server thunderstorms?

Severe thunderstorms. SPC stands for Storm Prediction Center. Here's a link: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

[JDawg512]

Well despite another cold snap on its way, this will be my last post in the winter thread. Starting tomorrow, Meteorological Spring beings so I will be moving over to Spring thread. By the way as I suspected this last cold snap did not get down to freezing here at my place so my plants continue to look great. I will however keep an eye on this upcoming event. Other than that, its been fun in this thread, see everyone over in the Spring thread

[cperez291]

Check out this graphic from the Brownsville NWS for monday actual 30's feel like 20's

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/823/smnb.png/

[ronyan]

Note that it does say "potential worst case forecast" on that graphic.

[dhweather]

000
WWUS84 KFWD 282247
SPSFWD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
447 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-011100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
447 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014


...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...

AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND BRING SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES TO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF
LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ENERGY SUPPLIED BY THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS. SINCE SOME LOCATIONS WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS... SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF AN OLNEY TO
GAINESVILLE LINE AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING AND LIGHT RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
CISCO TO DENTON TO BONHAM WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING BY EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND CONFINED MAINLY TO
ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SUNDAY EVENING AND THE FREEZING
LINE WILL REACH A COMANCHE...HILLSBORO TO CANTON LINE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE EVENING...BUT ONLY VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE THAT REMAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WILL FREEZE AS
ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FALLS WELL BELOW FREEZING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS SINCE CHANGES IN
THE TIMING OF THE EXPECTED UPPER SYSTEM OR MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIR COULD GREATLY AFFECT THE FORECAST.

[SouthernMet]

in the Fort Worth nws fd, they agree, the NAM handles cold airmasses much better than the gfs. (because of low level resolution)

[gboudx]

Steve McCauleys update about 3 mins ago:

Well, I am back from the seminar and have run the temperature numbers through the Stat Method, and it shows that we drop to freezing at DFW by mid-afternoon on Sunday. The rain should still be in progress at that time. Therefore, the next question to ask is how much longer will the rain persist as temperatures drop below freezing for the rest of the day. If it ends quickly after reaching 32°, we will dodge the ice bullet. But if it lingers into the evening, it could be a problem.

Precipitation forecasting with the Stat Method takes considerably longer to perform than temperature numbers, but I am working on it now and will post an update this evening.

[gpsnowman]

Meteorological winter ends today. DFW's mean temp for Dec-Jan-Feb was 45, making it the 20th coldest on record. RM
This from Rick Mitchell. NBC5 Dallas meteorologist.
Top 20 is pretty cool. I would say it was a success. And March is coming in with a bang.

[gpsnowman]

Has anyone looked at the storm in the Pacific? The sucker looks like a hurricane!!! Is it possible that the system can strengthen as it gets closer to Texas bringing us more rain or winter precip?

[Ntxw]

That is the best looking storm I have ever seen off California! How many extratropical cyclones have we seen not in the far north Pac or Atlantic has such a distinct eye feature? Not that I can remember, just gorgeous our next weather maker

[Ntxw]

in the Fort Worth nws fd, they agree, the NAM handles cold airmasses much better than the gfs. (because of low level resolution)

Can't argue the track record of the NAM and short range guidance when it comes to cold air depth and movement. They beat the global guidance every time. The problem with the NAM is QPF which it over does or under do's quite often but if you're talking temps in general it sets a good bar.