Texas Winter 2013-2014

[TheProfessor]

That is the best looking storm I have ever seen off California! How many extratropical cyclones have we seen not in the far north Pac or Atlantic has such a distinct eye feature? Not that I can remember, just gorgeous our next weather maker

http://i62.tinypic.com/b8sgll.gif

Yeah and I think it has strengthened since late morning. Earlier it had an open core but now it has a closed core. If it were August right now and that storm was in the middle of a hot gulf of Mexico, someone along the gulf coast would be in trouble.

[TrekkerCC]

That is the best looking storm I have ever seen off California! How many extratropical cyclones have we seen not in the far north Pac or Atlantic has such a distinct eye feature? Not that I can remember, just gorgeous our next weather maker

http://i62.tinypic.com/b8sgll.gif

An amazing storm system off the pacific, it is rare to have such a powerful looking pacific cyclone coming on shore like this. The temperature situation on Sunday is most concerning, due to the potential of moisture that might be coming with the pacific storm-system. NAM has us going to bone-chilling temperatures (like GFS was suggesting a week ago), while the GFS and EURO are not as extreme as of the last few runs. But even the NAM is sometimes too slow in timing of these arctic outbreaks. Even if we got the 26-30F range by mid-morning or afternoon, it would still cause a lot of problems in the DFW area if the precipitation was moderate to heavy, even bridges could be a problem if the precipitation is light. I'm holding out hope that conditions won't be too bad, since I had my share of ice in December, but GFS was pointing towards this solution of a significant winter weather event before it lost it (and may bring it back by the end). This is a definite bears watch situation in the DFW area until we get a better handle of the moisture and temperatures. *Gives Wxman57 another blanket for his bed* Here hoping for Wxman57's sake that we are back to 70s by next weekend.

[TheProfessor]

where is this storm supposed to track? And what would happen in North Texas if this storm tracked through Waco or Austin?

[SouthernMet]

in the Fort Worth nws fd, they agree, the NAM handles cold airmasses much better than the gfs. (because of low level resolution)

Can't argue the track record of the NAM and short range guidance when it comes to cold air depth and movement. They beat the global guidance every time. The problem with the NAM is QPF which it over does or under do's quite often but if you're talking temps in general it sets a good bar.

i was just reiterating, because just this morning someone said the exact opposite.

[ravyrn]

Guys, if you're quoting a post with a pic in it, please be considerate of other posters and change the [img] tags to [url] tags please. Especially when it's a 4MB behemoth. Having such a large image quoted multiple times makes it difficult to check the forums on mobile devices.

[TheProfessor]

Hmmm, it seems the 0z Nam wants to stall the front before pushing it past DFW on Sunday. Could a front this strong really stall that far north for 6-9 hours?

[TrekkerCC]

Guys, if you're quoting a post with a pic in it, please be considerate of other posters and change the [img] tags to [url] tags please. Especially when it's a 4MB behemoth. Having such a large image quoted multiple times makes it difficult to check the forums on mobile devices.

Sorry about that. I have edited my last post to make it more cellphone/mobile friendly.

[ravyrn]

Guys, if you're quoting a post with a pic in it, please be considerate of other posters and change the [img] tags to [url] tags please. Especially when it's a 4MB behemoth. Having such a large image quoted multiple times makes it difficult to check the forums on mobile devices.

Sorry about that. I have edited my last post to make it more cellphone/mobile friendly.

Many thanks!

[TrekkerCC]

Hmmm, it seems the 0z Nam wants to stall the front before pushing it past DFW on Sunday. Could a front this strong really stall that far north for 6-9 hours?

Well, it looks like the front itself is coming down and will arrive on schedule on the 00z NAM, but the colder air behind takes more time to filter in. It looks similar to what the GFS is showing, the cold air will arrive, but most of the precipitation will be gone by the time it gets cold enough to really matter. This is just verbatim 00z NAM, of course. I do know that in past arctic outbreaks, for example, the December event, etc, while we did get down to around freezing (and a bit below) with the frontal passage, it took the secondary surge of cold air behind the front to allow our temperatures to fall into the upper 20s with a transition to moderate and heavy sleet from freezing rain.

The way it looks now with the precipitation and the way temperatures might be stacking up, I am cautiously predicting a non to minor event for the DFW area. Some light freezing rain or sleet during in the late afternoon/evening, some morning problems on the elevated roadways, but nothing too bad. Of course, if the models are totally clueless on timing of cold air and how much cold air surges down due to the arctic surface high, then this could turn into a worse event. However, to my mind, the precipitation and the temperatures don't look to contribute (in my mind) to a major event for us at this point.

[weatherdude1108]

Agree - either is quite cold for March. With any luck, this will be the last big cold front of the season (and we don't get to 32F at IAH). Otherwise, I'll have to admit that I love cold weather.

Take a look at this latest satellite image of the ice on the Great Lakes. Similar if not more ice than the winter of 1976-1977 which froze much of the Mississippi. There were chunks of ice passing New Orleans in 1977.

http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/greatlakes_amo_2014050_lrg_0.jpg

Incredible! Wow!

[weatherdude1108]

That is the best looking storm I have ever seen off California! How many extratropical cyclones have we seen not in the far north Pac or Atlantic has such a distinct eye feature? Not that I can remember, just gorgeous our next weather maker

http://i62.tinypic.com/b8sgll.gif

edited by vbhoutex

That is downright exciting, yet frightening!
I have relatives in Southern California near the coast and inland (Costa Mesa and Glendora area).

[vbhoutex]

Guys, if you're quoting a post with a pic in it, please be considerate of other posters and change the [img] tags to [url] tags please. Especially when it's a 4MB behemoth. Having such a large image quoted multiple times makes it difficult to check the forums on mobile devices.

Our staff has requested this over and over. PLEASE BE CONSIDERATE OF OTHERS and do this when quoting an original image in another post.

[Ralph's Weather]

The NAM is still considerably faster than the GFS as of 0Z. Neither show a whole lot postfrontal precip. I feel like the faster timing will pan out, the main question that we won't have a good handle on until tomorrow afternoon is how the precip sets up.

[TheProfessor]

NWS FWD has issued a winter weather advisory for a quite a few DFW counties including the 4 main ones (Collin, Dallas, Denton, Tarrant).

[SouthernMet]

wwa advisory issued for all of OK, WSW for east ok & wwa along and north of i-20. (Including dfw metro)

[dhweather]

Graphic of WWA in NTX

[Tammie]

The folks from Norman OK must have been feeling a bit jovial yesterday. Rarely do we see humor mixed in with such technical info!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
306 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON WINTRY PRECIP AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES LATE SAT-SUN.

CURRENTLY... SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE H500 SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE OZARKS... TAKEN THIS
MORNINGS SHOWERS WITH IT. WINDS HAVE REMAINED VARIABLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON... WITH TEMPS CLIMBING SLOWLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH UNDER THE
SFC TROUGH EXTENDING INTO WRN N TX FROM THE PANHANDLES. N/NW WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...
LESSENING THROUGH SUNSET. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

FOR SATURDAY... THE VISUALLY IMPRESSIVE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY
CHURNING OFF THE CA COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ASHORE AND OVER SOCAL
TONIGHT. SERIOUSLY... IF YOU HAVE NOT CHECKED OUT WV LATELY... GIVE
THAT H500 SHORT WAVE A LOOK... IT KIND OF RESEMBLES A CINNAMON
ROLL... MMMM...CINNAMON ROLLS. ANYWAY... OFF THE ERN EDGE OF THIS
WAVE... A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL EJECT QUICKLY ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN. AHEAD OF IT... A DECENT
SFC HIGH/CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SWRD ACROSS THE
PLAINS... WITH A STOUT COLD FRONT EDGING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
01/18Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STARK GRADIENT FOR HIGHS SAT... WITH
30S ACROSS NRN OK TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

[Ralph's Weather]

WWA north of I-20 in East Texas

[wxman57]

Models trended warmer (less cold) for Texas overnight (raw data). The NAM has gone from around 10 to 18 for Monday's low, with less precip in the cold air. GFS also indicates a trace of precip (a few hundreths) as the temperature falls to freezing on Sunday afternoon. There is a chance that light freezing drizzle may cause some icing on bridges/overpasses in the metroplex Sunday afternoon. Nothing indicated for Tuesday. NAM went from predicting 23 in north Houston to 29 currently.

Note that the GFS MOS hasn't changed from its prediction of 20-21 in the D-FW area on Monday morning.

[Ntxw]

Not so fast wxman57! 12z NAM says nuh uh not cooperating. It's a little further south with the storm too and may have some snow in the south plains of the panhandle. Looks a little colder than 0z.

Storm is moving ashore now, samples!

Cold front is somewhere in W/NW Oklahoma. Guidance slows it down or stalls, lets see where it will be in a few hours. GFS and other globals stays it will stall the next 18-24 hours if not retreat, while the short range guidance such as the RAP keeps it pushing south. My money is on the RAP.