Texas Winter 2013-2014

[TrekkerCC]

I'm still not convinced that this will be a significant event. Even given the temperature profiles of the NAM/RAP, the precipitation is not a "precipitation shield" that will overspread precipitation over us for hours, it is a quick post-frontal band as depicted on the TTU WRF, so it will be unlike the December 2013 event which the models were predicting a significant precipitation event days beforehand. It seems that if we get under the precipitation band and temperatures are below freezing = big problems. However, if the colder air has trouble working itself into the DFW area or the post-frontal band does not develop or under-develop, then we will end up with light cold rain with freezing drizzle at the end. This event almost reminds me of the Jan 2014? (event) where we were suppose to get a band of precipitation after the cold air came in and we got only light precipitation as the band fell apart.

[ronyan]

I have 80.1F on my station here currently. Looking at temps to the North behind the front, an incredible contrast. Minot, ND is currently reporting -18F with a windchill of -45.

It's 28 in Woodward, OK and 61 in Durant, OK. The front appears to be just south of OKC.

[Ntxw]

I have 80.1F on my station here currently. Looking at temps to the North behind the front, an incredible contrast. Minot, ND is currently reporting -18F with a windchill of -45.

It's 28 in Woodward, OK and 61 in Durant, OK.

I guess mother nature didn't get the memo! Winter ended 2 weeks ago remember, it's March 1st and we're talking about cold and precip chances as if it were January!

[TheProfessor]

I'm still not convinced that this will be a significant event. Even given the temperature profiles of the NAM/RAP, the precipitation is not a "precipitation shield" that will overspread precipitation over us for hours, it is a quick post-frontal band as depicted on the TTU WRF, so it will be unlike the December 2013 event which the models were predicting a significant precipitation event days beforehand. It seems that if we get under the precipitation band and temperatures are below freezing = big problems. However, if the colder air has trouble working itself into the DFW area or the post-frontal band does not develop or under-develop, then we will end up with light cold rain with freezing drizzle at the end. This event almost reminds me of the Jan 2014? (event) where we were suppose to get a band of precipitation after the cold air came in and we got only light precipitation as the band fell apart.

Well no one is really predicting a storm on that magnitude, those types of storms only happen once or twice a decade, not to mention the McFarland signature that increased the storm magnitude, which also doesn't occur very often. To me the difference between this storm and the January storm is that this short wave is a lot stronger than the one in January, plus i think this one is supposed to go a lot further north than the one in January. The band likely fell apart because the system was too far south so the band didn't have enough energy to sustain it.

[orangeblood]

I have 80.1F on my station here currently. Looking at temps to the North behind the front, an incredible contrast. Minot, ND is currently reporting -18F with a windchill of -45.

It's 28 in Woodward, OK and 61 in Durant, OK.

I guess mother nature didn't get the memo! Winter ended 2 weeks ago remember, it's March 1st and we're talking about cold and precip chances as if it were January!

Just read that this winter is the 3rd coldest ALL-time in Chicago, Green Bay set its all time record for Sub-Zero days at 49 beating out 1976-77. Pretty incredible what the EPO/WPO can do or as my Colorado Mountain shuttle driver told me last month and I quote "its the Chem Trails and NASA radon testing that's causing the Jet Stream to curve up and over Alaska"....wonder what that guy's been smoking?

[TheProfessor]

It looks like the front is approaching the Red river area.

[WeatherGuesser]

Just read that this winter is the 3rd coldest ALL-time in Chicago, Green Bay set its all time record for Sub-Zero days at 49 beating out 1976-77.

And in Detroit, the snowiest since 1881:

http://www.freep.com/article/20140301/N ... 1001/rss01

[aggiecutter]

Updated weather forecast from the NWS for Texarkana for Sunday night:
"Sunday Night Rain, possibly mixed with sleet before 9pm, then freezing rain and sleet between 9pm and midnight, then freezing rain likely after midnight. Low around 26. North wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%."

Looks like the 4th ice storm of the season is on its way.

[gboudx]

From Steve McCauley

OK...here's the latest. Cold front arrives during predawn hours bringing showers and a few thunderstorms and then just a cold rain through midday, making the transition to ice during the afternoon and ending a little before sunset. Rainfall totals should stay less than 0.50" in the Metroplex.

The temperature numbers listed on this graphic are HIGHLY DEPENDENT on the rain falling at a sufficient rate throughout the morning hours. What does that mean? It means if the rain is not falling at a significant rate throughout the morning, it is possible we could freeze much faster.

Why? The temperatures about 2,000 feet above the DFW area will still be in the 50s while we are dropping into the 30s here at the ground. We DESPERATELY need that rain to bring down some of that warm air aloft and keep us from dropping into the 20s prematurely. If the rain is not heavy enough, then temperatures will drop faster than what I have indicated here and thus transitioning to ice sooner leading to more significant accumulations of ice.

So with that in mind we will hold to a tenth of an inch of ice here in the Metroplex by sunset on Sunday. There will also be some sleet mixed in. Amounts will double north along the Red River. There is no chance for snow in our area. That will stay north in Oklahoma where several inches will fall, especially between Oklahoma City and Tulsa.

[Ntxw]

Any kind of ice storm is rare for north and northeast Texas in March. In fact I can't seem to find any data to support there has been one only snow, can anyone re-collect any March in which it has happened before so that I can try to find some data on it?

[Rgv20]

For being March this is a very impressive front schedule for the RGV!

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion..

THE MAIN EVENT STARTS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH HELP DRIVE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE GETTING CLOSER
TOGETHER ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING...GENERALLY BETWEEN 9PM SUNDAY
NIGHT AND 9AM MONDAY MORNING. WENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY QUICKER
NAM...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY CATCHING THE COLD OUTBREAKS
LOCALLY THIS WINTER. THE FRONT SHOULD BE REACHING THE BKS/HBV LINE
AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND SHOULD BE THROUGH KBRO NO LATER THAN
SUNRISE...IF NOT SOONER. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PLUMMET.
AREAS IN THE WESTERN VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURE CHANGES OF
MORE THAN 40 DEGREES...POSSIBLY EVEN 50 DEGREE SWINGS...BETWEEN
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND SUNRISE TEMPERATURES MONDAY. GOOD MOISTURE WITH
THE FRONT WILL HELP PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY LOOK TO
REMAIN LIQUID. MAY HAVE A FEW HOURS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE WITH WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S.

[orangeblood]

Any kind of ice storm is rare for north and northeast Texas in March. In fact I can't seem to find any data to support there has been one only snow, can anyone re-collect any March in which it has happened before so that I can try to find some data on it?

Check March of 1995 and also 1974

Also, if we do get at least of trace of ice/snow tomorrow, it will only be the 6th time in over 115 years of records that DFW has recorded at least a trace of ice/snow in every month from Nov-March. Heck of a winter, one that is in rare company!

[aggiecutter]

Any kind of ice storm is rare for north and northeast Texas in March. In fact I can't seem to find any data to support there has been one only snow, can anyone re-collect any March in which it has happened before so that I can try to find some data on it?

Check March of 1995 and also 1974

I cant' remember the exact year, but sometime during the mid-90's Texarkana received 2 significant icing events during mid March of the same year.

[TheProfessor]

NWS FWD is showing all of Denton county receiving .2 to .3 inches of sleet. That's going to cause some travel problems.

[orangeblood]

NWS FWD is showing all of Denton county receiving .2 to .3 inches of sleet. That's going to cause some travel problems.

Yep, they are becoming a lot more bullish with this event....although, with temps in the upper 70's today, I'm going to be shocked if this precip accumulates on area roadways tomorrow.

[katheria]

id like a day off on monday lol, but i doubt it also

[Ntxw]

NWS FWD is showing all of Denton county receiving .2 to .3 inches of sleet. That's going to cause some travel problems.

Yep, they are becoming a lot more bullish with this event....although, with temps in the upper 70's today, I'm going to be shocked if this precip accumulates on area roadways tomorrow.

A lot of it depends on the temperatures. It was almost 80 the week of the ice storm in December, once temps fall below 28ish it sticks to roads especially sleet if the precip is heavy enough. Although the sun angle is higher now than it is then but ice is tougher than snow. Assuming there is enough precipitation falling behind the front.

[orangeblood]

NWS FWD is showing all of Denton county receiving .2 to .3 inches of sleet. That's going to cause some travel problems.

Yep, they are becoming a lot more bullish with this event....although, with temps in the upper 70's today, I'm going to be shocked if this precip accumulates on area roadways tomorrow.

A lot of it depends on the temperatures. It was almost 80 the week of the ice storm in December, once temps fall below 28ish it sticks to roads especially sleet if the precip is heavy enough. Although the sun angle is higher now than it is then but ice is tougher than snow. Assuming there is enough precipitation falling behind the front.

True, but most of the December ice storm fell during the night time hours and had a good 24 hour cool down before hand.

[Ntxw]

True, but most of the December ice storm fell during the night time hours and had a good 24 hour cool down before hand.

Yeah, much of it is dependent on precip type and amount, time of day can help with accums too. We've seen snow fall in the teens then melt in the mid 20s. Yet ice hang around in the 30s, a lot just falls on the temperatures when looking at roadways. Usually they handle around 30-33 just staying wet regardless of temperatures before even if it's 30-33 for 48 hours. I never really buy into the warm ground days before it will take off some accum amounts but once you hit the mid 20s it could be 100 the day before and it will still stick! But this is a rant for another day!

Btw NOAA released their March forecast and it's below normal or EC for most east of the Rockies. This looks more reasonable than their previous depictions, I'm glad they decided to jump on the wagon. Beyond this week the cold intrusions becomes less impressive but we'll have to watch these anomalous 5h lows in a shorter wavelength pattern

[dhweather]

Easily 450 pages for winter - not bad!