ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[CaliforniaResident]

Los Angeles has literally received more rain in the past 3 days than it has in all of 2013. Is that due to the budding El Nino?

Don't think so, there is no Nino. It's probably due to strong westerlies from the MJO.

It does seem very unusual here though. We had some distant rumbles of thunder and flashes last night and people won't stop talking about it. Is moderate rain and mild thunderstorm activity all that worthy of headline news and endless tweets? I guess it is for the locals here. If El Nino happens, will this happen on a more regular basis next winter?

[Ntxw]

It does seem very unusual here though. We had some distant rumbles of thunder and flashes last night and people won't stop talking about it. Is moderate rain and mild thunderstorm activity all that worthy of headline news and endless tweets? I guess it is for the locals here. If El Nino happens, will this happen on a more regular basis next winter?

Correct. While there is no current Nino, as stated in previous posts the MJO is in it's Nino like phases which favors southern branch storms. If there was a true El Nino the subtropical jet would be very active and California would see many systems coming from the west southwest like this one.

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan answered my question about CFSv2 showing no El Nino until October.


Luis Martinez ‏@tropicspr · 3 h
@TropicalTidbits CFSv2 has El Nino cancel or is the spring barrier for models? pic.twitter.com/DrE1x6A8pj

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 4 min
@tropicspr Spring barrier makes all of this uncertain. The thinking is El Nino is more likely because of the deep Kelvin Wave coming east.

[Kingarabian]

Levi Cowan answered my question about CFSv2 showing no El Nino until October.


Luis Martinez ‏@tropicspr · 3 h
@TropicalTidbits CFSv2 has El Nino cancel or is the spring barrier for models? pic.twitter.com/DrE1x6A8pj

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 4 min
@tropicspr Spring barrier makes all of this uncertain. The thinking is El Nino is more likely because of the deep Kelvin Wave coming east.

I think that's also due in part to the CFS showing too much El-Nino bias for the past couple of seasons.

[cycloneye]

The ESPI continues to rise in positive territory. (March 1 at +42)

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

30 day SOI is now in negative territory at -1, it's going to keep falling as we lose several more +20s

Almost there.

[Kingarabian]

PDO comes out this week, right?

[cycloneye]

PDO comes out this week, right?

The PDO updates are on the 15th.

[Ntxw]

Almost there.

Is that an updated or lag figure? the Longpaddock site has -1

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au.../

[cycloneye]

Almost there.

Is that an updated or lag figure? the Longpaddock site has -1

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au.../

+0.2 is the update for Febuary 28 so yes is a lag..See the text below.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[CaliforniaResident]

The ESPI continues to rise in positive territory. (March 1 at +42)

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

30 day SOI is now in negative territory at -1, it's going to keep falling as we lose several more +20s

Almost there.
http://oi58.tinypic.com/k9usso.jpg

I'm not scientifically versed in meteorology; just a former East Coaster stuck in California and missing rain and thunderstorms. Can you tell me if this means El Nino is more likely to come in the fall? Last night L.A. had an actual small thunderstorm and I was having dinner at a friend's house and the entire family spend the entire evening glued to the window watching it because it is SO rare in L.A. (Their six year old son asked if it was fireworks as he had never seen a thunderstorm before!!). 2014-2015 will be my final year in the L.A area and I'd like to see more rain that year. The state is in a serious drought so I'm sure EL Nino would reverse the situation.

[dexterlabio]

^More negative SOI value means ENSO is trending towards the warm phase (El Nino). I believe positive ESPI values say the same thing. If I'm not mistaken, this is the first time we've seen the ESPI turned positive since 2010 am I right?

[cycloneye]

The only thing notable on this Sunday March 2nd is the sudden spike up at Nino 1+2 for the past three days.

[cycloneye]

Here is news about the SOI that has flipped to negative for the first time since November 21rst 2013.

20140131,20140301,-0.7.

[cycloneye]

Another strong Kelvin Wave moving east thru the Pacific.

[cycloneye]

The latest saved loop of the sub-surface waters shows how the large warm pool continues to expand eastward and now moving towards the surface.

[cycloneye]

The CPC 3/3/14 update has Nino 3.4 down from -0.4C that was last week to -0.6C this week. I suspect that the effects from the large warm pool will be seen in the next 2 to 3 weeks.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

The 30 day SOI continues to go down now at -2.0

20140201,20140302,-2.0

[stephen23]

Im confused. Im just trying to learn this whole side of weather. Doesn't the decrease of 3.4 mean that we are trnding back to la nina? Just confused in how all this works.

[cycloneye]

Im confused. Im just trying to learn this whole side of weather. Doesn't the decrease of 3.4 mean that we are trnding back to la nina? Just confused in how all this works.

I think our friend Ntxw can explain with more detailed analysis all about how ENSO works but I can tell you that an upwelling phase after a kelvin wave has caused the cooling of Nino 3.4. But the large warm pool that is at the Sub-Surface will warm the waters at surface in the coming weeks.

[Ntxw]

Im confused. Im just trying to learn this whole side of weather. Doesn't the decrease of 3.4 mean that we are trnding back to la nina? Just confused in how all this works.

The immediate surface reflects the cold pool that has been up welling as the warm pool is moving up the thermocline. The rest of it will get pushed up before the warmth arrives. If you look at the loops our friend cycloneye has provided you see how the thermocline works. The warm pool will arrive the second half of March and we will see the beginnings of much more significant warming come April and May as the pool will sustain it for a few months. There is no Nina nor any evidence of one remotely close probably less than 5% chance.

Think of it as a cold front. It's 80F today but there's a massive cold air mass coming doesn't mean it will be 80F tomorrow. You can't stay warm if there is a front approaching even though it is warm on that day. The surface can't stay cold remaining due to the fact there is a mass of warmth ready to surge.