Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Texas Snowman]

We're about to blow by 450 pages...on March 1st!!!

[Texas Snowman]

Much to Heat Miser's chagrin! Is 500 within reach?!?

[ronyan]

Anyone notice the absence of wxman posts on previous pages? My theory is that he's out enjoying the warmth ahead of the cold. Looks like the NAM does have a better handle on this front and is probably still too warm based on the AFD out of Fort Worth. All hail the -EPO regime, I could stand to have more winters of this magnitude.

Amarillo airport now reporting 24F, Dalhart is 19F with a windchill of 3 and forecasted low of 19. Coming in colder than forecast, bring it on!

On another note, TWC still strangely has the front stalling in N TX around DFW, maybe some GFS hugging going on with their surface maps. They still forecast a low of 41F here tomorrow night but that isn't reflected in the positioning of the front.

[gpsnowman]

Oklahoma City 33 with light rain.
Norman 36
Ardmore 52
Texas Snowman, you might be below freezing before the front reaches DFW!!

[dhweather]

[dhweather]

[ronyan]

Going with the NAM, the 18Z run has IAH reaching 28 degrees Monday night. The GFS shows 38F, a ten degree difference.

[Ntxw]

0z NAM is not something you want to see. 0.25" to 0.5" of liquid mostly post frontal. Freezing rain and sleet with temperatures well into the 20s. This model has been getting wetter.

This is getting borderline winter storm warning, if not the northern half to third of DFW.

[dhweather]

Check this out - don't know anything about this model at the SPC, but it looks nasty for us.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sseo/sseo ... d=PR-PTYPE


just click start in the upper left corner.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

How does this setup compare to the Thanksgiving 1993 sleet storm? I remember the warm days just before that storm, plus the fact that not much impact was expected until it hit.

[Ntxw]

How does this setup compare to the Thanksgiving 1993 sleet storm? I remember the warm days just before that storm, plus the fact that not much impact was expected until it hit.

You don't even have to go that far back. I checked the NAM soundings and they are remarkably similar to our December ice storm, in fact they basically mirror each other. Difference will be if we can match that QPF.

Started with an ice storm, will we end it with one as well?

[ravyrn]

Can someone post the sounding for DFW tomorrow around noon? Also, if you could include a link of where it may be found, I'd appreciate it greatly. I'm interested to see how much warmth the precipitation will drag down to the surface. We saw it occur in earlier events this winter.

[Ntxw]

Can someone post the sounding for DFW tomorrow around noon? Also, if you could include a link of where it may be found, I'd appreciate it greatly. I'm interested to see how much warmth the precipitation will drag down to the surface. We saw it occur in earlier events this winter.

Freezing rain, and or sleet<- depending on depth of the lower level cold. SkewT's can be found on twisterdata, just click the model, the point on the map and you will see a skewT popup then select hours.

[orangeblood]

that is one heck of a warm nose, much warmer than the December ice storm

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: that is one heck of a warm nose, much warmer than the December ice storm

Here is the warm nose from Dec also from the NAM. It's the only one I could find, we need to post these things when events happen!

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Winter Storm Warning for northeastern Texas now per FW NWS.

[dhweather]

Karl Malden nose on those skew-t's

WSWarning - Delta, Fannin, Hopkins, Hunt, Lamar counties until 9PM tomorrow night.

[dhweather]

I won't be surprised if the next row of counties, Collin, Rockwall, Kaufman get upgraded to a WS Watch or something. It looks like the worst will be along and east if I-35, North of I-20.

[Ntxw]

The winds have shifted in Bowie, Graham, and areas along the Red River. 30s is a county or two behind (30s in the Falls and moving into Ardmore). Looks like frontal passage for DFW may be midnight to 3am rather than 3-6am. Don't think temperature is a problem for this event, it's QPF. The more it is, the more serious the event.

[dhweather]