Texas Winter 2013-2014

[SouthernMet]

Fort Worth Alliance has reached the freezing mark before any precipitation.

[gpsnowman]

When should the precip start in DFW? I thought storms would develope along the front.

[Ralph's Weather]

Front is coming through here now with 40s in Mineola and mid 60s in Lindale.

[Ralph's Weather]

If I understand the mountain's role correctly, their effect is felt when the cold is filtering in from the NE. This year many of our cold spells have come from the "Polar Vortex" over the Great Lakes so the cold has had to traverse the mountains. This front is pulling air from the Plains so the mountains should not have an effect on our weather this time.
Your note on the very warm air aloft is valid though and will likely have an effect on the heavier stuff until the deeper cold filters in.

No, their E-W alignment is most noticed when the cold comes from the NW or NNW. If the cold comes from the NE, the damming affect isn't as deep or noticed. The ArkLaTex is SE of the Ouachita mountains.

The mountains are in SE OK which is NE of E TX. The current front is gonna have no issues with the mountains at least as far as the Tyler/Longview are is concerned.

[orangeblood]

When should the precip start in DFW? I thought storms would develope along the front.

This mornings precip will be light, it's between noon and 3pm when the models have the heavier precip breaking out from DFW eastward. This is somewhat concerning as temps will likely be in the mid 20's by that point

Edit: But the models particularly the GFS and Euro are having all sorts of trouble including post frontal precip. They had over 0.10 inch QPF amounts for DFW before 6am this morning, well that obviously didn't pan out so I would discard them at this point. Follow the RAP and HRRR short range guidance, they seem to be handling this system much better. Although the RAP seemed to have some trouble late last night, it has started to come around showing moderate to heavy precip this afternoon

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[opticsguy]

Yes, it appears the upper level low is slower to arrive than previously thought.

On the 925 mb chart at the SPC mesoscale site, you can see the Rossby Wave caused by the Ouichita mountains. Vorticity from the trough of the wave could increase precip in NE TX.

[TheProfessor]

Already in the 20s here. Where's the precipitation? Could this 've even worse now if we get it?

[gpsnowman]

When should the precip start in DFW? I thought storms would develope along the front.

This mornings precip will be light, it's between noon and 3pm when the models have the heavier precip breaking out from DFW eastward. This is somewhat concerning as temps will likely be in the mid 20's by that point

I was hoping to hear some thunder this morning. There is some light rain here in GP and the winds are howling. Temp near freezing. Below freezing for a good portion of the Metroplex already. Pretty early for that. This afternoon could be nasty. I am beginning to wonder if the high temp forecasted for Monday might be too high. Teens for lows with possible ice on the ground. Depends on cloud cover.

[Ralph's Weather]

I was hesitant to forecast much in the way of prefrontal storms for NE TX and it looks like the front will clear most of the I-20 corridor before storms have a chance to form. Still looking at possible convection this afternoon in the cold air though which could lead to areas north of Tyler and Longview getting decent sleet and freezing rain accumulations.

[Ntxw]

GFS Mos has dfw down to 15F which would equal it with the coldest air of the season...in March! Mind boggling.

52nd freeze, we have toppled 1976-77 and 1983-84 in that department

[WeatherGuesser]

New meteogram from the 12Z GFS for the D-FW area. It's indicating a few light freezes the first week of March but nothing significant the weekend of March 1-2. That's not to say you can now trust that the GFS has the right solution, it just points out the extreme variability from run to run in the GFS. The Euro has been a bit more consistent in keeping most of the cold air north and east of Texas. 12Z EC deterministic has a low down to 27-28 in Dallas-Ft. Worth on March 1st and 32 on March 2nd. Ensembles have brief cold reaching TX on March 1-2 then gradual warming as the cold air retreats to the east.

Interesting to go back to page 430 and read posts starting from Feb 20

[Ralph's Weather]

Front dropped temp from 67 at 7 to 45 at 730. Light rain now here.

[Ntxw]

The NAM continues to look colder. That 10F record March low is probably watching closely.

Which by the way, the record of 10F is tomorrow March 3rd 1943. How fun is that?

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

On this Texas Independence Day, I will be celebrating our independence from the Heat Miser!

29 degrees with light freezing drizzle in Richardson.

[SouthernMet]

Fort Worth Alliance 28, Meacham 29.
Wichita Falls 16.. We still have a longggg way to drop before we bottom out tomorrow morning...

Meanwhile it looks like some light freezing rain is developing south of the metro

[opticsguy]

Less than an hour ago from the SPC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0159
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 AM CST SUN MAR 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN/ERN OK...N-CNTRL TX...NRN
AR...SRN MO

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 021327Z - 021930Z

SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF WINTER MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
OZARK PLATEAU THIS MORNING...WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY PERSISTING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS SAMPLE A PLUME OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY
ROOTED ATOP THE STRONG INVERSION OVERLYING AN ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT
IS SPREADING SWD ACROSS THE REGION. INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE FRINGES OF STRONGER
ASCENT/MID-HIGH CLOUDS PRECEDING A SRN-STREAM IMPULSE OVER AZ/NM ARE
ENCROACHING ON THIS BUOYANCY. MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY ALREADY INDICATES
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION PRODUCING SLEET FROM SWRN OK
TO THE OZARKS. AS THE IMPULSE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA...THE
INCREASE IN ASCENT WILL ENCOURAGE THE GROWTH OF ADDITIONAL ELEVATED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING...WHILE PRECIPITATION FALLOUT FROM
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS STIMULATES PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER
STRATUS DECK /SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM/.

DESPITE ELEVATED WARM NOSE TEMPERATURES OF 6-12C AROUND H85
SUPPORTING COMPLETE MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS PER THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SHALLOW PBL -- I.E. AOB
-10C WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SLEET WITH THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FOR
AREAS FROM NRN AR TO SERN/S-CNTRL OK AND ADJACENT N-CNTRL TX WHERE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE FRONTAL INVERSION WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER -- THOUGH STILL BELOW 0C -- FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY.
LIQUID-EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION RATES OF 0.05-0.15 INCH PER HOUR
WILL BE LIKELY. THIS COULD TRANSLATE TO SLEET ACCUMULATION RATES
AROUND 0.25 INCH PER HOUR...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER. THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU TO
SERN/S-CNTRL OK AND ADJACENT N-CNTRL TX INVOF A PLUME OF 0.75-1-INCH
PW PER GPS DATA.

THE OVERALL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LOCALLY
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES.

..COHEN.. 03/02/2014


ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 32959867 33749902 35369782 36809590 37239379 37009171
36249091 35739207 35179395 34439492 32909677 32959867

[srainhoutx]

The NAM continues to look colder. That 10F record March low is probably watching closely.

Which by the way, the record of 10F is tomorrow March 3rd 1943. How fun is that?

Actually that is not fun. Many of the trees and plants are in bloom and putting out new growth and with the threat of freezing rain extending as far S as SE Texas now into tomorrow night as a lagging upper.air disturbance moves across the Southern half of Texas, we could see some real issues and even potential travel problems across portions of Central and SE Texas extending E into Louisiana. I'm done with Winter 2013-2014 personally. We have had one issue after another since last Thanksgiving and if we see another freezing rain event down here tonight into tomorrow night that would make #7 for this Winter Season which is more than I have witnessed in my 57+ years in Houston.

[gpsnowman]

Light snow in GP!
Flakes were decent size. Coated my wifes car. Makes you wonder about how warm it actually is where the clouds are.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Latest RAP really increases QPF along and north of I-20 for late morning into the afternoon hours.

[SouthernMet]

as we sit in the mid-upper 20's in the metro..

Rap shows 1-2" qpf for metro this afternoon : http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/displa ... ll&adtfn=1