Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Tammie]

Sleet/freezing rain mix in Denton!

[SouthernMet]

Fort Worth alliance at 25, Fort Worth Meacham at 26, Bridgeport at 22

[ronyan]

This is an intensely cold air mass especially for March. Did anyone notice the panhandle getting into single digits overnight??

Current observation from Amarillo 8F with a windchill of -10F! Incredible.

[TheProfessor]

If we get what the Rap is predicting, I'm afraid that all of it will accumulate, especially with those temperatures.

[Portastorm]

I love these kinds of cold fronts. They don't mess around. Temp here at the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County has dropped 15 degrees in about 20 minutes. And still dropping, of course. Sitting 58 at the moment but I see upper 30s just about 15-20 miles to my north in the far northern parts of Cedar Park. Also looks like there's a shot at some wintry wx for us late Monday into early Tuesday. Hmmm ... wasn't somebody discounting the NAM solution just a few days ago?!

Gonna be a fun few days.

[Tammie]

Minor problems in Denton. Freezing rain freezing on windshields on contact. Many cars on the shoulder waiting on defrost to help melt it. Be careful out there!

[Tireman4]

Meanwhile in scenic Humble...it is 73 degrees and muggy (overcast too). The front is coming for us.

[Rgv20]

Check out my forecast..... Almost a 50 degree difference in high temperature, I will not turn on my AC today, repeating no AC! lol



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[Ntxw]

HRRR is starting to pick up on the thunderstorms too. Fascinating storm we are seeing, its winter below but spring above. Get under one of those cells/storms and its the end days . Where they pop up early afternoon determines who sees how much of what.

[gboudx]

From jeff:

Powerful arctic cold front will sweep across the region today with a significant drop in temperatures.

Arctic boundary is moving quickly southward this morning with a 30-40 degree temperature drop across the boundary (Austin is 72 while Waco is 35). Boundary will race southward and reach our NW counties before noon and push to near US 59 by 300-400pm and off the coast by early evening. Upstream temperatures at Amarillo are 8 and in the teens across much of OK so this air mass is very cold for early March.

Severe Threat:
Mornings soundings from LCH and CRP showed a fairly impressive capping inversion in place across the region with saturation of the air mass below the cap. With better moisture in place today…it will be hard to mix out the low stratus clouds over the region and suspect there will only be a few breaks in the overcast across the region which will keep instability on the lower side in the 800-1000J/kg instead of closer to 1500J/kg. Forecast models erode the cap this afternoon and allow convection to develop along the leading edge of the frontal lift. Think the arctic boundary will move too fast southward and outrun the developing storms cutting the updrafts off from the surface and making them quickly elevated which lessens the severe threat over the region. Could still see a few severe hail and wind reports especially NE of a line from College Station to Conroe to Liberty where capping will be weakest and storms have the best chance of being rooted near the surface.

Winter Precipitation:
Incoming air mass is very cold and forecast models have been too warm with upstream temperatures which raises the concern this evening that light rain following the frontal passage could change to freezing rain along a north of a HWY 105 line. Warm temperatures since Friday has greatly warmed both ground and roadway surface temperatures and even if temperatures fall into the 30-32 range do not think ice accumulation will be significant. With that said overnight lows will fall into the upper 20’s north of HWY 105 which may result in freezing over residual water on bridges and overpasses after the precipitation ends around midnight. Given very warm roadway surface conditions, think surface temperatures will need to fall into the 27-29 range for ice to form and this will be possible in the region from College Station to Lake Livingston after midnight.

Other aspect will be the potential for a freeze warning for areas N of I-10 tonight. While the area has had several hard freezes this winter the recent warm spells have allowed vegetation to bud and freezing temperatures will damage the new sensitive growth which would fall within the range of a late season freeze warning. Wind chills tonight will run 15-25 degrees across the area.

Early Week:
Cold arctic dome will entrench over the area for much of the week with active flow remaining in place from the WSW. This flow will bring several disturbances across the area and generate periods of rainfall. First disturbance will cross the area late Monday into Tuesday. Surface temperature profiles suggest mainly a rain event, but surface temperatures could be very near freezing Tuesday morning north of HWY 105 for a brief period of freezing rain or sleet. Highs on Monday will only reach the mid 40’s under north winds and cloudy skies (about 35 degrees colder than today). Next system approaches late Tuesday into Wednesday with another chance of rainfall across the area. Temperatures will remain cold for early March for most of the week with lows 30-35 Monday and Tuesday and highs only in the 40’s both Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday will again be cold with clouds and rain with lows in the upper 30’s and highs in the lower 50’s.

Should start to see a warming trend toward the end of the week ahead of yet another weather system next Saturday.

[Portastorm]

HRRR is starting to pick up on the thunderstorms too. Fascinating storm we are seeing, its winter below but spring above. Get under one of those cells/storms and its the end days . Where they pop up early afternoon determines who sees how much of what.

Looking forward to seeing/reading the first "thundersleet" report from S2K's North Texas contingent!

[Meteorcane]

Despite a very significant warm nose (temps at 800mb are about 10C), we are actually getting snow here in Central Oklahoma, due to saturated lower levels (including a 75mb thick dendritic growth zone), and curious case in which a sleet/freezing rain mix was predicted and instead snow is actually what is occurring.

[ndale]

EWX mentioning temps are falling faster than anticipated, again models may have underestimated the cold.

[dhweather]

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Saturday, 2 March 2014 9:56 CST

Good morning,

This will be a quick update on the winter weather potential (and occurring) for today. A pdf has been attached to give an idea of confidence, impacts, and timing. This is the last email update for this storm.

BOTTOM LINE:: A mix of rain, freezing rain, and sleet has already begun in north Texas. There will be impacts from freezing precipitation today, mainly north of Interstate 20. Public Safety, traffic, and emergency management officials should be prepared for impacts from wintry precipitation . This remains a classic weather scenario where the range of possibilities is the full range. Some areas will see no impacts at all. Other areas could see major impacts.

IMPACTS, AMOUNTS, AND AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN:: Rain has already begun in most areas, and in most cases is occurring where temperatures are already in the upper 20s. The exception is to the south, where temperatures remain near 40 (for now). As the cold front continues to usher in colder air, temperatures will only get colder through the day today. Rainfall and Freezing rain will quickly cause bridges and overpasses to become slick and hazardous. . Impacts will be aggravated tonight at sunset, when any water remaining on the roads will quickly freeze once the sun goes down. For the Monday morning commute, the ice will still be there.

The ice accumulation is expected to remain at below one tenth of an inch in all areas. Therefore, widespread impacts to trees and power lines are not currently forecast. However, with gusty north winds expected to persist into Sunday night, even a light coating of ice on trees and power lines could cause problems.

TIMING:: Precipitation will end from west to east today. West of US 281, the precipitation should end between 3 and 5 PM. In the I-35 Corridor, including Denton, DFW, and Waco/Temple/Killeen, the precipitation should end between 5 and 7 PM. Further east, the precipitation ends by 10 PM

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:: For the

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:: There is a wide range of possibilities with this forecast. All of these are possible (in general order of likelihood):

Wintry precipitation falls, but the combination of warm ground temperatures and gusty winds dry out roads before any impacts occur.
Thunderstorms occur during mixed wintry precipitation, which would lead to localized areas of major impacts.
Temperatures crater and all precipitation turns to snow

[TheProfessor]

I hope i get some of those thunder sleet storms. I don't mind a lot of sleet, just not ice.

[Ntxw]

Despite a very significant warm nose (temps at 800mb are about 10C), we are actually getting snow here in Central Oklahoma, due to saturated lower levels (including a 75mb thick dendritic growth zone), and curious case in which a sleet/freezing rain mix was predicted and instead snow is actually what is occurring.

Interesting you brought this up. Gpsnowman was saying he saw flurries and flakes this morning in gp which I thought was odd. RAP does a ZR/snow mix for many. I wonder if thunderstorms could do havoc with this, similar to something seen March 2008

[TheProfessor]

I also saw some small flurries outside, so that is interesting, what would the snow ratio be if it happened?

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Very light snow in The Colony.

[Tireman4]

That is why they call it March Madness. (Speaking of March Madness, my alma mater (North Carolina Central University) has a chance to get to the big dance for the first time ever. Of course, being in the MEAC, we have to win the tournament, but hey.. We have only been Division I for 7 years!) I would just be beside myself if we (Houston) get sleet this time around. My goodness. It is March.

[Wntrwthrguy]

Already 38 here in Round Rock. What are the chances we drop to freezing or below by the time the precip ends?