Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman22]

From the Houston national weather service office.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
216 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MAINLY THE WEST CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND A WINTER ADVISORY SURROUNDING THIS AREA AFTER
11 PM...

.A AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET OVER THE REGION BEGINNING AROUND 11 PM
NEAR EDNA AND EXPANDING NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AFTER A COLD EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES AT BELOW FREEZING
AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
OVER THE AREA...AND SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING
RAIN AND AND SLEET. ROADS MAY BECOME ICY AND ELEVATED ROADS AND
BRIDGES WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICING. AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF
A COLUMBUS TO HEMPSTEAD TO CONROE TO COLLEGE STATION ARE UNDER A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN AND IN THIS REGION ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF MORE THAN 0.10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 9
AND NOON WITH AREAS TO THE NORTH BEING THE LAST TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING.




...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM CST TUESDAY...

* EVENT...A COLD AIRMASS OVER THE AREA AND AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN AND RAIN BEGINNING AROUND 11 PM NEAR BAY CITY AND EXPANDING
NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ADVISORY AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.10
OF AN INCH...OF COURSE ANY ACCUMULATIONS CAN MAKE TRAVEL
HAZARDOUS ON ROADS ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
MOTORISTS SHOULD PLAN FOR DELAYS IN THE MORNING COMMUTE AND BE
PREPARED TO DELAY TRAVEL OR USE SURFACE STREETS AND BE CERTAIN
TO SLOW DOWN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY 10 AM
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. IF THE
AIR ENDS UP COLDER THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT THE ADVISORY AREA MAY
NEED TO BE CHANGED TO A WARNING SO PERSONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
SHOULD FOLLOW THE LATEST FORECASTS CLOSELY.

[HouTXmetro]

Ummm.... the air is much colder than expected. Just yesterday the forecast in Houston was 50 for the high. It's 3PM and still struggling to get above 40. I knew something was wrong with the forecast when I saw Dallas in upper teens and low 20s.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I want to also note, that my dewpoint has dropped 2 degrees to 28F now. My reading may not be entirely accurate. Ive noticed that during times of sunshine, my instrument can have spikes sometimes since its not entirely in a shaded area. When its cloudy its spot on, i tried to make some adjustments this morning that looks promising but im still not entirely sure. I think as long as the dewpoints remain in low-mid 20's, we will have an event this evening.

[Portastorm]

Whoo boy ... the 18z NAM clobbers both south central and southeast Texas overnight into the morning hours with precip. This one is going to be REAL interesting.

[WeatherGuesser]

I think TX is in here somewhere. Kinda hard to tell under all the white. Nice swirl feature off-shore in the Gulf too.

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi- ... 00.2km.jpg

143Kb file size.

[Tireman4]

Whoo boy ... the 18z NAM clobbers both south central and southeast Texas overnight into the morning hours with precip. This one is going to be REAL interesting.

I just wished Wxman 57 was here to clear this up. I am not sure who is at the controls of the thermostat right now...LOL

[downsouthman1]

I think TX is in here somewhere. Kinda hard to tell under all the white. Nice swirl feature off-shore in the Gulf too.

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi- ... 00.2km.jpg

143Kb file size.

The only piece of TX that's shown there is the RGV.

[ronyan]

I want to also note, that my dewpoint has dropped 2 degrees to 28F now. My reading may not be entirely accurate. Ive noticed that during times of sunshine, my instrument can have spikes sometimes since its not entirely in a shaded area. When its cloudy its spot on, i tried to make some adjustments this morning that looks promising but im still not entirely sure. I think as long as the dewpoints remain in low-mid 20's, we will have an event this evening.

Your 28 for the dewpoint seems correct based on other stations in the area.

[ravyrn]

Jacksonville's current forecast high is 33. We've been sitting in the low 20s all day. We're up to a balmy 24 atm. That forecast was a bust.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

One thing we can be sure of is no snow. Its 11C of SE Tx at the 850 level right now, but the 925 level is -4C here in Ft. Bend county. Now THATS a shallow air mass.

[Snowman67]

a portion of this afternoon's HGX discussion:
MODELS LOOK TO BE STARTING OFF WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON THAN WAS OBSERVED BY 3-9 DEGREES OVER THE NORTH AND
1-3 DEGREES WARM AT IAH THAN OBSERVED WHICH IS TROUBLING IN THE
UPCOMING EVENT. MODELS SHOW TEMPERATURE PROFILES WITH A LARGE WARM
NOSE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT ABOVE 2500-3000FT (AMDAR 2800FT DEEP
PRESENTLY) BUT BELOW THIS TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING TO
NEAR THE SURFACE. GUIDANCE LOOKS WARM TOMORROW MORNING SO WILL BE
UNDERCUTTING TEMPERATURES AND BRING THE FREEZING LINE DOWN TO
AROUND THE 59 CORRIDOR DURING THE PRECIP.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

What i like to hear.

[davidiowx]

a portion of this afternoon's HGX discussion:
MODELS LOOK TO BE STARTING OFF WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON THAN WAS OBSERVED BY 3-9 DEGREES OVER THE NORTH AND
1-3 DEGREES WARM AT IAH THAN OBSERVED WHICH IS TROUBLING IN THE
UPCOMING EVENT. MODELS SHOW TEMPERATURE PROFILES WITH A LARGE WARM
NOSE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT ABOVE 2500-3000FT (AMDAR 2800FT DEEP
PRESENTLY) BUT BELOW THIS TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING TO
NEAR THE SURFACE. GUIDANCE LOOKS WARM TOMORROW MORNING SO WILL BE
UNDERCUTTING TEMPERATURES AND BRING THE FREEZING LINE DOWN TO
AROUND THE 59 CORRIDOR DURING THE PRECIP.

Excellent!

[Portastorm]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
333 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

...WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH NOON TUESDAY...

.A COMBINATION OF A SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS...MOIST GULF FLOW AT
LOWER LEVELS...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. COMPOUNDING THE SITUATION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION...WHICH COULD PRODUCE THUNDERSLEET AND
THUNDER WITH THE FREEZING RAIN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION. ICE ACCUMULATION COULD BE 1/10 INCH OR MAYBE A LITTLE
MORE IN THE WARNING AREA...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN THE
ADVISORY AREA...MAINLY LIMITED TO BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY NOON TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

TXZ171>173-192>194-209-040600-
/O.CON.KEWX.WS.W.0001.140304T0200Z-140304T1800Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-FAYETTE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...AUSTIN...
BASTROP...GIDDINGS...LA GRANGE
333 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO NOON CST TUESDAY...

* TIMING...FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...POTENTIALLY
ACCUMULATING TO 1/10 INCH. ROADWAYS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS...
ESPECIALLY ELEVATED ROADS SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

* OTHER IMPACTS...SENSITIVE PLANTS SHOULD BE COVERED AND PEOPLE
AND PETS SHOULD BE INDOORS TO PREVENT HYPOTHERMIA.
THUNDERSLEET OR THUNDER WITH FREEZING RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET...
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS
WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE TRAVEL PROBLEMS AND MAY POSE A THREAT TO
LIFE AND PROPERTY.

&&

$$

TXZ221-222-224-040600-
/O.EXA.KEWX.WW.Y.0007.140304T0200Z-140304T1800Z/
WILSON-KARNES-DE WITT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...CUERO
333 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY.

* TIMING...FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE ON
ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ELEVATED ROADS SUCH AS BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.

* OTHER IMPACTS...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...SENSITIVE PLANTS
SHOULD BE COVERED AND PEOPLE AND PETS SHOULD BE INDOORS TO
PREVENT HYPOTHERMIA. THUNDERSLEET OR THUNDER WITH FREEZING
RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

TXZ186-188>191-205>208-223-225-040600-
/O.CON.KEWX.WW.Y.0007.140304T0200Z-140304T1800Z/
KERR-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-
GONZALES-LAVACA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KERRVILLE...FREDERICKSBURG...BOERNE...
BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...
LOCKHART...GONZALES...HALLETTSVILLE
333 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY...

* TIMING...FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAY ACCUMULATE ON
ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ELEVATED ROADS SUCH AS BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.

* OTHER IMPACTS...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...SENSITIVE PLANTS
SHOULD BE COVERED AND PEOPLE AND PETS SHOULD BE INDOORS TO
PREVENT HYPOTHERMIA. THUNDERSLEET OR THUNDER WITH FREEZING
RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

[HouTXmetro]

The sun just came out in full force for the last 30 minutes but the temp has responded by dropping 3 degrees in the Sun... I went from 45-42 in 30 minutes. I thought temp would go in opposite direction.

*Humble, TX

[Ralph's Weather]

Temps are holding in the mid 20s here with some sun filtering through the clouds making for extra slick conditions even on major roads. We could see teens again tonight with some fresh freezing rain tomorrow possible.

[davidiowx]

Echos are starting to appear out west!

[orangeblood]

EWX has to be a little concerned with the lack of precip depicted on the latest GFS and short range RAP models....it appears like they're going with the NAM output and that should give pause to most everyone on this board. Don't shoot the messenger, just speaking from experience

[downsouthman1]

EWX has to be a little concerned with the lack of precip depicted on the latest GFS and short range RAP models....it appears like they're going with the NAM output and that should give pause to most everyone on this board. Don't shoot the messenger, just speaking from experience

Keep in mind that there is a lower Warning criteria threshold in EWX & HGX CWAs versus FWD. That's specifically stated in the AFD by FWD.

Edit: Quote: "IT IS IMPORTANT TO CONSIDER THE RARITY OF SUCH WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS (THIS WINTER NOTWITHSTANDING) AND THE
LESSER WARNING CRITERIA IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO OUR CWA (EWX/HGX)."

[Snowman67]

Had cloud cover for most of the day and last temp here was 37F. Clouds starting to break up now and this should allow temps to fall quicker than had the clouds stuck around. Don't know how big an impact this will have on the forecasted overnight low temp, but with just a degree or two making the difference between liquid and frozen precip for parts of SE Texas tonight, it sure does make for a tricky forecast.