Isabel and the NW turn...

obxhurricane · #41 Postby **obxhurricane** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 7:07 pm

Well rainband let's see the data and then decide what it proves.

obxhurricane · #42 Postby **obxhurricane** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 7:10 pm

By the way...the new GFDL has just come in. I'll let you all decipher the coordinates.

0 21.7 58.2 270./ 8.0
6 22.0 59.1 291./ 8.7
12 22.3 60.2 281./10.8
18 22.5 61.2 284./ 9.1
24 22.9 62.0 294./ 8.8
30 23.3 63.0 296./ 9.6
36 23.7 63.9 292./ 9.6
42 24.1 64.9 293./ 9.8
48 24.6 66.0 291./10.7
54 24.8 66.9 285./ 9.1
60 25.0 67.9 280./ 8.5
66 25.2 68.6 291./ 6.8
72 25.6 69.0 311./ 5.4
78 25.8 69.3 305./ 3.6
84 26.2 69.8 301./ 5.7
90 26.6 70.2 322./ 5.3
96 27.1 70.4 333./ 5.2
102 27.7 70.6 342./ 6.4
108 28.4 70.9 337./ 7.1
114 29.4 71.2 345./10.3
120 30.4 71.6 337./10.5
126 31.5 71.9 345./11.7

sfwx · #43 Postby **sfwx** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 7:12 pm

Well, this may give you some general idea of what he is getting at.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... climo.html

Eric

ColinD · #44 Postby **ColinD** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 7:16 pm

wxfan wrote: I can't help but think it would be both informative, and might even help to put some of the passionate (you've got me hooked) dialogue in perspective, to do an analysis of expected landfall location (or fish) vs. where the person making the prediction lives.....I am thinking we would see a remarkably high correlation between the two.

Heh. That's funny .. and dead-on.

Rainband · #45 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 7:18 pm

obxhurricane wrote:Well rainband let's see the data and then decide what it proves.

OMG..I am just trying to say " It's too early to make a call" If it starts to turn by 2pm tommorow or soon after..I may be more interested in what the models say :wink:

Not wishing any tragedy on anyone..but I hope your right..or at the least it comes no where near florida..or anyone for that matter..I just don't buy long range forecasts thats all :wink:

#46 Postby **coriolis** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 7:29 pm

ColinD wrote:
wxfan wrote: I can't help but think it would be both informative, and might even help to put some of the passionate (you've got me hooked) dialogue in perspective, to do an analysis of expected landfall location (or fish) vs. where the person making the prediction lives.....I am thinking we would see a remarkably high correlation between the two.

Heh. That's funny .. and dead-on.

Well this 100% wish: I'd like to see it weaken so its not destructive, land in the mid atlantic and go over ME! I love the smell of salt air.

ColinD · #47 Postby **ColinD** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 7:30 pm

obxhurricane wrote:Latest satellite imagery shows the cloud pattern starting to get elongated from NW to SE...probably an early sign of a slighly more north of west track. This thing will start moving WNW in the next day then NW by 70 W.

"Upper level outflow remains good but the outflow channels have
transitioned from an E/W orientation more towards a N/S
orientation. This change appears to be due to Isabel being
squeezed somewhat by an approaching upper low to the east near
21n42w and a nearly stationary trough to the west between
65w-70w"

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/AXNT20.html

soonertwister · #48 Postby **soonertwister** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 7:47 pm

Wasn't Andrew "supposed" to turn away from Florida?

I'm not convinced that anyone's forecast 6 days out - minimum - is valid when it predicts the turn of a category 5 hurricane based on varying models.

I wouldn't dare to guarantee that anyone on the east coast is safe at this time. Considering the consequences of regarding a storm of this magnitude too lightly, I think that's the only sane course of action to take.

Yes, it will "probably" miss Florida. I have ancestors from Missouri. It's called The Show Me State.

I'll let Isabel "show me".

All other sources I will disregard until such time as a trend has been established that can definitely pin down this storm to within a few hundred miles of coastline.

mf_dolphin · #49 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 7:50 pm

While I don't agree with the BigTurn up the coast it does have the model support ..... for now. :-)

WIth the 4-5 day picture still very unsettled all any of us can do is watch and prepare. And keep a civil tongue.... :-)

Rainband · #50 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 7:53 pm

mf_dolphin wrote:While I don't agree with the BigTurn up the coast it does have the model support ..... for now. WIth the 4-5 day picture still very unsettled all any of us can do is watch and prepare. And keep a civil tongue....

Agreed..It gets frustrating not knowing..If I offended anyone I am truely sorry!! :wink:

soonertwister · #51 Postby **soonertwister** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 8:04 pm

After looking at the model map page at WREL, the thought just occurred to me that if Isabel doesn't start a WNW turn within 30-36 hours, then every single model in that ensemble will have missed the track of this storm to the right.

So I guess we must assume that Isabel will be turning WNW shortly, right?

Rainband · #52 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 8:32 pm

soonertwister wrote:After looking at the model map page at WREL, the thought just occurred to me that if Isabel doesn't start a WNW turn within 30-36 hours, then every single model in that ensemble will have missed the track of this storm to the right.

So I guess we must assume that Isabel will be turning WNW shortly, right?

Forecast cone says 2pm Saturday!! :roll:

I guess we will see :wink:

obxhurricane · #53 Postby **obxhurricane** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 9:13 pm

I've said just about everything there is to say to back up my view. I would like to know...other than the it's still too far away argument...why anyone should belive that Florida is at risk. Come on...convince me.

Also...I'm still waiting to find out when the last hurricane was to make landfall on the Florida East coast in September. Was it David in '79? Or has there been one since that time?

BEER980 · #54 Postby **BEER980** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 9:41 pm

obxhurricane David looks like the last one.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/

mf_dolphin · #55 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 9:48 pm

obxhurricane wrote:I've said just about everything there is to say to back up my view. I would like to know...other than the it's still too far away argument...why anyone should belive that Florida is at risk. Come on...convince me.

Also...I'm still waiting to find out when the last hurricane was to make landfall on the Florida East coast in September. Was it David in '79? Or has there been one since that time?

I'm not trying to convince anyone lol Personally I don't think the weakness will maintain itself long enough to allow Isabel to turn that far north. The models say it will and my gut says it won't. :-)

Absolutely nothing more than that :-)

Guest · #56 Postby **Guest** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 5:42 pm

It amazes me how many say no florida hit. We don't know what's going to happen next week as Isabel get's closer to the U.S. eastcost. I said this so many times and I'll say it again everyone who lives on the eastcoast form florida to maine should monitor this storm. I feel like we shouldn't rule out possibilities. This is a category 5 not some puny hurricane. Just being in the atlantic can cause waves to swell to 10-18 feet this is just an est. hurricane Isabel is classified as a dangerous storm and its huge too according to the reports coming in from the recon. If you choose not to monitor this storm then so be it. If you say to yourself its a fish headed out to sea then I guess their's no need in following the models or what the meterologist have to say about it. But I'm going to be prepared at any cost.

Rainband · #57 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 5:53 pm

obxhurricane wrote:How does your gut feel today?

You Florida folks sure did call this one. Better batten down...it's going to pass well within your range. I hear the ridge is strengthening.

Gee...I feel like such a fool for saying Florida was all clear. Oh well...what was I thinking? Afterall...all the models showed a Florida strike! Better watch out down there...

You can't begrudge people for worrying and or doubting models.. Like said previously..this is a serious storm and till it passes Florida I am keeping an eye on it. BTW I hope it goes out to sea and doesn't hit anyone. Thanks for being so compassionate to the Fellow S2K members :wink:

Isabel and the NW turn...

I agree Isabel definetly needs to be watched.

Who is online