WPAC: FAXAI - Tropical Storm

[euro6208]

Impressive...

Look how small our typhoon is right now...

I wouldn't be surprised if the intensity is a tad higher than 65 knots based on it's small size and 8 nm eye...AMSU reporting as high as 89 knots...

Dvorak having a hard time with this midget...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 041500 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 19A
AMENDED//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 03W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 429 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (IR) REVEALS A 08 NM EYE FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED WHILE THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT AND SYMMETRIC. A 041101Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TY 03W HAS REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED DESPITE AN
OVERALL DECREASING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IN THE OUTER PERIPHERIES.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE
IMAGE AND THE IR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EYE
FEATURE IN THE IR LOOP AND IS HIGHER THAN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TY FAXAI IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS INCREASED DUE TO THE RECENT
DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL 8NM EYE.
B. TY 03W IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. INCREASING VWS FROM THE WESTERLIES AND DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM AND WILL LEAD
TO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36. TY 03W IS EXPECTED TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AND BECOME A GALE FORCE, COLD-CORE LOW. THE
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO, BUT
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND INSIDE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET KNOWN
MODEL TENDENCIES DURING RECURVATURE.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO TYPHOON STRENGTH (65 KNOTS) BASED ON THE RECENT
DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL 8NM EYE AND THEREFORE, THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WAS AMENDED.//
NNNN

[hurricanes1234]

75 knots!!

03W FAXAI 140304 1800 18.8N 151.7E WPAC 75 967

[vrif]

JMA upgraded Faxai to TY

WTPQ20 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1403 FAXAI (1403) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 18.8N 151.7E GOOD
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 210NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 22.8N 154.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 061800UTC 24.6N 161.5E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[stormkite]

Looks like an eye is appearing in the latest imagery. Could this be our first typhoon of the year?

Yeah there has been a pin eye visible for quite awhile but nothing official.



Still intensifying think system will get stronger as it climbs.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

It is barely a 55 knot storm expected to weaken. It is over an area of low shear and increasing. It is weakening, clearly. Why would it gain strength?

At that time convention in the core was cooking the loop was showing intense towers firing. A eye was also visible on the loop at that time.
2014MAR04 070100 4.7 963.8 +2.6 82.2 4.7 4.7 5.4 MW ON OFF OFF -31.54 -64.00 EYE

At that time of the post you was agreeing then this turn around ?


03W FAXAI 140304 1800 18.8N 151.7E WPAC 75 967

[euro6208]

Impressive early typhoon for this time of year, 75 knot, churning east of Guam.

But is definitely weakening at this point...


03W FAXAI
Current Wind 75
Max Wind 75
ACE 5.0375

Over 5 in ACE!

http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php

[vrif]

12 hours later, back to a STS

WTPQ20 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1403 FAXAI (1403) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 21.1N 153.4E GOOD
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 210NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 060600UTC 24.5N 158.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 070600UTC 24.6N 164.9E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[euro6208]

Poof...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Bai bai Faxai!
(Bye bye...)

[stormkite]

Faxai

[ManilaTC]

What does the FAX AI?... ding ding ding...

[JonathanBelles]

What does the FAX AI?... ding ding ding...

I haven't been on the board in a while, and this was the third post I saw when I logged on. Gave me quite a chuckle! lol

[Meow]

JMA is too fast!

AXPQ20 RJTD 180400
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE BEST TRACK
NAME 1403 FAXAI (1403)
PERIOD FROM FEB2712UTC TO MAR0806UTC
2712 8.7N 147.8E 1004HPA //KT 2718 8.6N 147.8E 1002HPA //KT
2800 8.5N 148.0E 1004HPA //KT 2806 8.5N 148.3E 1002HPA //KT
2812 8.6N 148.5E 1000HPA 35KT 2818 8.8N 149.0E 1000HPA 35KT
0100 8.9N 149.1E 998HPA 35KT 0106 9.1N 149.1E 996HPA 35KT
0112 9.3N 149.2E 994HPA 40KT 0118 9.2N 149.0E 994HPA 40KT
0200 9.2N 148.8E 994HPA 40KT 0206 9.3N 148.5E 994HPA 40KT
0212 9.5N 148.8E 994HPA 40KT 0218 10.0N 149.2E 992HPA 40KT
0300 10.9N 149.7E 990HPA 45KT 0306 12.2N 149.2E 985HPA 50KT
0312 12.9N 149.3E 985HPA 50KT 0318 13.9N 149.5E 980HPA 55KT
0400 14.7N 149.9E 980HPA 55KT 0406 16.1N 150.6E 980HPA 60KT
0412 17.5N 151.2E 975HPA 65KT 0418 18.8N 151.7E 975HPA 65KT
0500 20.0N 152.5E 980HPA 60KT 0506 21.2N 153.5E 985HPA 50KT
0512 21.9N 154.1E 990HPA 45KT 0518 22.2N 155.0E 994HPA //KT
0600 23.0N 156.0E 998HPA //KT 0606 23.3N 157.3E 996HPA //KT
0612 23.6N 158.8E 1000HPA //KT 0618 23.2N 160.1E 1000HPA //KT
0700 22.7N 160.8E 1004HPA //KT 0706 23.2N 161.3E 1004HPA //KT
0712 23.5N 162.3E 1004HPA //KT 0718 24.1N 163.3E 1004HPA //KT
0800 25.4N 165.1E 1006HPA //KT 0806 26.2N 168.0E 1008HPA //KT
REMARKS
TD FORMATION AT FEB2712UTC
FROM TD TO TS AT FEB2812UTC
FROM TS TO STS AT MAR0306UTC
FROM STS TO TY AT MAR0412UTC
FROM TY TO STS AT MAR0500UTC
FROM STS TO TS AT MAR0512UTC
FROM TS TO L AT MAR0518UTC
DISSIPATION AT MAR0812UTC=