Texas Winter 2013-2014

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Portastorm,

Same around these parts except the busts have been the opposite than what has been forecasted. We had a pretty good hailstorm last week that was not forecast, most was size of quarters and bigger. And now today freezing rain wasnt even mentioned for us and now baton rouge is under winter advisory until 4 and they have been closing bridges and parts of interstate all morning. Temp still at 32 and was supposed to be 40.

[srainhoutx]

Tree limbs from Pines and Oaks falling like crazy near the Copperfield area. Wondering about those pines in The Woodlands and Champions area? Certainly one of the worst ice storms I've seen in SE Texas in many a year...sigh

[Texas Snowman]

It has definitely been the year of the ice storm!

[Texas Snowman]

For our Louisiana friends celebrating Mardi Gras today, is it the coldest one ever?

"@BigJoeBastardi: 33 in Baton Rouge at 3 pm their time on March 4th. I wonder if today will be the coldest max temp in March for BTR."

[Tammie]

So is winter going out with this last roar, or do you think we will see one more frozen event before spring actually arrives?

[Snowman67]

Tree limbs from Pines and Oaks falling like crazy near the Copperfield area. Wondering about those pines in The Woodlands and Champions area? Certainly one of the worst ice storms I've seen in SE Texas in many a year...sigh

I have quite a few tree limbs scattered across my yard - some pretty big ones too.

[Tireman4]

So is winter going out with this last roar, or do you think we will see one more frozen event before spring actually arrives?

That is a question for Wxman 57. Wait, which one do you want to address? He is bipolar these days. You have the cold side ( which he is now) or the hot side ( last month). Which one will answer? He he he

[wxman57]

Euro ensembles indicate another cold surge Saturday night and another next Thursday across Texas. Nothing remotely close to the current airmass. For example, no additional freezes are indicated in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area after tonight (and possibly Thursday morning) through 240 hrs. In the extended range, the GFS isn't indicating any sub-40 temps in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area from March 13th through March 20th. It is with great sorrow that I announce the models appear to be indicating a slow transition to spring and no more Texas ice storms.

[gboudx]

For our Louisiana friends celebrating Mardi Gras today, is it the coldest one ever?

"@BigJoeBastardi: 33 in Baton Rouge at 3 pm their time on March 4th. I wonder if today will be the coldest max temp in March for BTR."

1899 was coldest one for New Orleans. Not sure about the rest of SELA.

[Portastorm]

Euro ensembles indicate another cold surge Saturday night and another next Thursday across Texas. Nothing remotely close to the current airmass. For example, no additional freezes are indicated in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area after tonight (and possibly Thursday morning) through 240 hrs. In the extended range, the GFS isn't indicating any sub-40 temps in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area from March 13th through March 20th. It is with great sorrow that I announce the models appear to be indicating a slow transition to spring and no more Texas ice storms.

OK, OK ... enough. You've done your penance. This is getting downright unnatural now!

Where is Heat Miser and what have you done with him?!

[Tireman4]

Euro ensembles indicate another cold surge Saturday night and another next Thursday across Texas. Nothing remotely close to the current airmass. For example, no additional freezes are indicated in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area after tonight (and possibly Thursday morning) through 240 hrs. In the extended range, the GFS isn't indicating any sub-40 temps in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area from March 13th through March 20th. It is with great sorrow that I announce the models appear to be indicating a slow transition to spring and no more Texas ice storms.

OK, OK ... enough. You've done your penance. This is getting downright unnatural now!

Where is Heat Miser and what have you done with him?!

Man, this is just weird. First, thundersleet. Then, ice storms in March. Now, this (Wxman 57 channeling is inner cold). To quote Beano Cook on the Tim Brando Show, "What the heck is going on"?

[katheria]

I think its time for some lithium

[Ntxw]

What I can tell you from the ENS, CFSv2, and teleconnections is a moderating pattern the coming weekv (From this weekend forward). Caveat is -SOI and the STJ will likely feed into the westerlies. Storms and cutoffs (PNA ridge with systems underneath) will likely keep things average or slightly below average. Then signal is strong (given it is long range) a return of the -EPO and ridging will happen towards the vernal equinox.

[aggiecutter]

Shreveport AFD:

"CONCERNING THE UPPER TROUGH FOR WED/WED NIGHT...THIS SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY AND
WITH A STRONG UPPER JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING
TROUGH...THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DIGGING AND CUTOFF
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT. PREFER THE
GFS/ECMWF HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE NAM APPEARS TO BE MUCH
TOO OPEN WITH THE TROUGH. LIFT WILL BE QUITE VIGOROUS WITH THIS
TROUGH GIVEN ITS FORWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE REGION AND THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY GETS SHUNTED EAST OF THE
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MIX ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MOST ZONES WITH MORE OF A RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE ACROSS THE
I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA AS WE WILL NEED TO COOL THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN THROUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING
PROCESSES. NO ADVISORIES ARE NECESSARY ATTM GIVEN THE NARROW
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THIS HAPPEN BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED. SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING WITH A NICE WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

[gboudx]

From the DFW NWS:

WITH SNOW FLURRIES ON MONDAY...DFW AIRPORT RECORDED ITS 14TH CALENDAR
DAY WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION THIS SEASON. THIS IS THE MOST IN ANY
SEASON SINCE 1978-1979 (WHEN THERE WERE 17 DAYS).

AT WACO...THERE HAVE BEEN 10 DAYS WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THIS IS
THE MOST SINCE 1987-1988 (WHEN THERE WERE 11 DAYS).

NOTE: THESE DATA INCLUDE ALL OCCURRENCES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
SNOW AND SLEET AS WELL AS FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. A
SEASON FOR SNOWFALL (AND OTHER WINTRY PRECIPITATION)...FREEZES...AND
HEATING DEGREE DAYS IS THE 12-MONTH PERIOD FROM JULY 1 TO JUNE 30 OF
THE FOLLOWING YEAR.

I believe the bolded part also answers gpsnowman's question on the previous page.

Another question. The freeze numbers, are they for just the DJF period or are the numbers from the start of winter to the end? We had freezes in November and obviously some to start March. Just didn't know if those were included in the overall totals. Thanks.

[TheProfessor]

Is it possible that because of a cooler spring it will be less likely that there will be capping inversions that block the development of storms?

[WeatherGuesser]

Is it possible that because of a cooler spring it will be less likely that there will be capping inversions that block the development of storms?

Certainly hope something blocks damaging storms.

[TheProfessor]

Is it possible that because of a cooler spring it will be less likely that there will be capping inversions that block the development of storms?

Certainly hope something blocks damaging storms.

Caps block all storms, even the harmless drought busters, they prevent the cumulus clouds from rising and growing, If you want caps then you will have to sacrifice rain, which we really need right now.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

12z had a huge NorEaster in la la land. I need to find the post that said i thought we would have a huge storm in March.

[aggiecutter]

For those in SW Austin, who currently are in a 10 year snow drought, I posted the link below just for you. The video was taken from my carport during January of 2011. I posted this link out of the goodness in my heart:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmR0TofUQ34